Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 31, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

Highlights and News:  

  • The French court bans Marine Le Pen from running for president in 2027 and sentences her to prison
  • Goldman forecasts both the Fed and the ECB will cut rates three times this year
  • Trump told NBC he “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices
  • Israel sent a counteroffer to mediators following reports Hamas agreed to an Egyptian truce proposal

 

World stock markets fell sharply after President Trump said tariffs would essentially cover all countries, stoking worries a global trade war could lead to a recession.
Trump is due to receive tariff recommendations tomorrow and announce initial levels on Wednesday, while automobile tariffs will take effect on April 3.  The European Union was ready to respond with tariffs of its own, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on
Sunday, but there were also reports the block was preparing a list of concessions to offer Trump. Investors are shifting their asset allocation in favor of bonds over global equities due to policy uncertainties and downside risks to economic growth. Meanwhile,
the Israeli army told Palestinians to leave areas in southern Gaza ahead of what it said would be “intense fighting” with Hamas.    

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are lower for a fourth straight day as the president’s April 2 “Liberation Day” looms on Wednesday. Nasdaq 100 contracts lead losses, with Nvidia, Palantir and Tesla
sinking over 3% in pre-market trading. Hedge funds bought US equities on a net basis for the first time in 7 weeks, though overall buying was modest, according to a Goldman Sachs prime brokerage report. In corporate news, Rocket Companies will buy mortgage
servicer Mr. Cooper in an all-stock transaction for $9.4 billion in equity value. This will be a quiet week for quarterly earnings releases. The Trump administration discussed providing emergency financial aid for farmers who may be subject to tariff retaliation,
the NYT reported.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1%, Nasdaq -1.5%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -0.6%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) is leading premarket losses among the Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla -6.0%, Nvidia -4.3%, Amazon -2.2%, Meta -2.5%, Microsoft -1.6%,
Apple -0.8% and Alphabet -1.1%. Canada Goose (GOOS) shares fall 5% as Barclays cuts the upscale parka retailer’s rating to underweight from equal-weight. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) shares drop 6.3% after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the drugmaker to sector
perform from outperform, citing less confidence in the company’s gene therapy, Elevidys. United States Steel (X) shares are down 1.4%, after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the company to market perform from outperform. US-traded EHang (EH) shares jump 5.6%
as the Chinese firm said it has been granted the first batch of air operator certificates for civilian autonomous aerial vehicles by China’s aviation regulator. Vaxcyte (PCVX) shares dropped 30% after reporting that its infant pneumococcal vaccine VAX-24 met
phase 2 study immune response targets.

European gauges are broadly lower ahead of Trump’s deadline for a new set of sweeping global trade tariffs. The European Union is identifying potential concessions
to get some levies removed, although officials from the bloc were told that there was no way to avoid new US auto and reciprocal tariffs expected this week. The Stoxx 600 falls more than 1% with basic resource, auto and travel names leading declines. Italian
inflation accelerated to 2.1% from a year ago, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time in 18 months. Associated British Foods shares fell as much as 5% after the chief executive officer of its Primark fashion chain resigned. Fortnox
AB shares rose 34% after a consortium including EQT AB offered to take the Swedish financial services firm private. Stoxx 600 -1.7%, DAX -2%, CAC -1.9%, FTSE 100 -1.3%.  Basic Resources -3.5%, Autos -3.4%, Travel -2.9%, Banks -2.7%.

Shares in Asia suffered sharp losses, with the Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Taiwan’s Taiex Index falling over 4% as Trump’s tariffs are set to be announced this week.  Automobiles
and auto parts are Japan’s biggest export products to the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.2% after Friday’s economic           data showing a plunge in US consumer sentiment and weak spending added to concerns. Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung Electronics
were among the biggest drags along with Chinese internet firms Tencent and Alibaba. Korean stocks slid as the nation resumed short-selling following a 17-month ban on the practice. Shares of Chinese state-owned carmakers rose after a report that the government
is planning mergers and restructuring in the sector. China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March. Singapore, India, Indonesia and Malaysia were closed for holidays. Taiwan -4.2%, Nikkei 225 -4%, Topix -3.6%, Kospi -3%, ASX 200
-1.7%, Vietnam -0.8%, CSI 300 -0.7%. Philippines +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer by 3bp-5bp across maturities in early US session after gapping higher at the Asia open amid slumping equity markets globally. 10-year yield
near 4.20% is down ~4.5bp, the curve is mixed with 2s10s -1bp. Fed-dated OIS contracts price in additional easing this year. Goldman Sachs projected the Fed will cut in July, September and November. Treasuries are on track to outperform stocks this quarter
for the first time since the pandemic onset in March 2020. Morgan Stanley late Friday recommended being outright long 7-year Treasuries or TY futures to hedge risk-aversion. 

 

METALS: 

Gold surged to another new record and is set for its strongest quarter since 1986. Spot gold gains over 1%, trading above $3,120 and ounce. Gold is up almost 19%
this year, with a run that’s seen it clinch at least 15 all-time highs. Several major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this month ramping up its forecast to $3,300 an ounce by year-end. Spot gold +1.2%,
Silver +0.1%, Copper -1.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices inched up in choppy trade after Trump said he was very angry at Vladimir Putin and threatened “secondary tariffs” on buyers of Russian oil if Putin refuses
a ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump also threatened to punish Tehran with unspecified “secondary tariffs” and raised the threat of bombing Iran until it signs a deal that renounces nuclear weapons. China and India are key purchasers of Russian crude oil, and their
cooperation would be essential for any secondary sanctions package to significantly impact exports from the world’s second-largest oil exporter. Elsewhere, talks to restart Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have hit a snag as a lack of clarity
over payments and contracts persists.  WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas +3.1%, RBOB +0.4%.   

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen is the clear G-10 FX outperformer as risk-averse investors bought the haven currency ahead of a barrage of tariffs expected from President
Trump this week. Sterling steadied as Britain hopes to negotiate a deal with the US to avoid Trump’s broader round of reciprocal tariffs. British Prime Minister Starmer and Trump discussed “productive negotiations” towards a UK-US economic prosperity deal
in a phone call on Sunday evening. Trump said on Friday he was open to carving out deals with countries seeking to avoid tariffs, but those agreements would have to be negotiated after April 2.  US$ Index 0.01, GBPUSD +0.04%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD
-0.7%, NZDUSD -0.7%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.3%, USDSEK +0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.5%, Ethereum ~flat

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Celsius Holdings (CELH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $45
    • Goodyear (GT) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $13
    • Lassonde Industries (LAS/A CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$255
    • Lions Gate (LGF/A) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $9
    • PNC Financial (PNC) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $202
    • Progyny (PGNY) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $28
    • Snap-On (SNA) Raised to Buy at Longbow; PT $400
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $145
    • Waters (WAT) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $460
    • Wingstop (WING) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $270
  • Downgrades
    • Canada Goose (GOOS CN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT C$11.45
    • ChargePoint (CHPT) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $1
    • Comerica (CMA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $64
    • Innovative Industrial (IIPR) Cut to Sell at Compass Point; PT $50
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $87
    • US Steel (X) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $45
  • Initiations
    • Alnylam (ALNY) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $353
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $50
    • Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $112
    • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) US Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $38
    • Genco Shipping (GNK) Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT $18
    • Ionis Pharma (IONS) Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $39
    • Kanzhun (BZ) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $26
    • Kestra Medical (KMTS) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $29
      • Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $28
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $27
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $28
    • Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities
    • MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Mondelez (MDLZ) Rated New Market Perform at CICC; PT $70
    • Nexxen International Ltd (NEXN) US Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $17
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $25
    • Okta (OKTA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $130
    • Penguin Solutions (PENG) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • Royal Caribbean (RCL) Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT $230
    • Sitio Royalties (STR) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $22
    • Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $407
    • Tenable (TENB) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $50
    • Terawulf (WULF) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $4
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $45
    • Viper Energy Inc (VNOM) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Virax Biolabs Group (VRAX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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