Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 1, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET ECB’s Lagarde speaks; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET Construction
Spending, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Mfg, ISM Prices Paid

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Unlikely to Specify any Pharma Tariffs on Wednesday: RTRS
  • Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 3:00ET on Wednesday
  • Trump aides float 20% tariff on most imports, Washington Post says
  • China Seeks Trade Cooperation with Netherlands, Europe
  • Trump accused Ukraine of attempting to renegotiate an economic deal with the US

 

World stock markets rose following overnight gains in the US as markets awaited details of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. Trump said maybe Tuesday
night or Wednesday you will see tariff details and we are going to be nice in comparison to other countries, adds in some cases maybe substantially lower. Factory activity in the euro zone showed early signs of a recovery in March but mostly weakened across
Asia as an intensifying US tariff war hurt business sentiment, PMI surveys showed. Inflation in the region eased as expected last month and a key measure of underlying price pressures also fell. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan saw manufacturing activity decline
in March. Japan’s factory activity fell at the fastest pace in a year, its PMI showed, extending declines for a ninth straight month. China was one outlier among a broadly downbeat set of Asian purchasing managers’ indexes, showing activity picking up, as
factories rushed to get goods to customers before US tariffs took effect.     

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures erase earlier gains after a rebound in the key indices on Monday which was mostly attributable to month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows. The Nasdaq 100 closed
almost unchanged on Monday after falling as much as 2.5% earlier in the day. White House aides are proposing tariffs of around 20% on most US imports, the Washington Post reported. Advisers say no final decision has been made and that several options are on
the table. Trump’s administration is also considering using the trillions of dollars it expects in new import revenue for a tax dividend or refund, the report said. US officials will submit a report today on China’s compliance with the 2020 trade deal, potentially
escalating tensions as Beijing missed its purchase targets. Meanwhile, Trump created a new office to manage the Chips Act’s funds and speed up some investments in the US. SoftBank is said to be seeking a loan of up to $16.5 billion to help fund US AI investments.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.6%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla is rising 3%, while fellow Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed. Live Nation (LYV) slips 1.5% after President Trump said he will sign an
executive order aimed at tackling ticket scalping. Microvast (MVST) shares surge 26% after the lithium-ion battery maker reported 2024 revenue that beat its guidance thanks to growing demand for its technology. Newsmax (NMAX) shares jump 11%, putting the conservative
media outlet’s stock on track to extend gains after it jumped 735% in its debut Monday. Gorilla Technology (GRRR) slides 6% after the analytics technology firm reported full-year results and reiterated its revenue forecast for 2025. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
falls 3% after a federal judge rejected the health-care products maker’s third attempt to use bankruptcy of one of its small units to end baby powder cancer claims.

European gauges are broadly higher after euro zone inflation cooled as expected to 2.2% in March, according to Eurostat data. The Stoxx 600 rose as much as 1.2% and
is on course to snap a four-day losing streak. All sectors are in the green except energy, with aero & defense, miners and healthcare names leading gains. Industrial group Thyssenkrupp jumped 10% after analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to “buy”
from “hold,” citing tailwinds behind steel and defense amid higher fiscal spending in Germany. AstraZeneca Plc rose 1.5% as its experimental cholesterol drug significantly reduced “bad” cholesterol in a mid-stage trial.  Among other individual movers, Bavarian
Nordic A/S advanced 2.7% as it won US FDA approval of its freeze-dried formulation of Jynneos vaccine for the prevention of smallpox and mpox in adults 18 years and older. Stoxx 600 +0.9%, DAX +1%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.6%. Aero & Defense +1.5%, Basic Resources
+1.4%, Healthcare +1.3%, Technology +1.2%. Energy -0.1%. 

Shares in Asia rose as traders reassessed positions ahead of the planned introduction of more US tariffs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%, led by gains in
Taiwan and South Korea. Traders remained on edge, however, with 30-day volatility on the gauge trading around the highest level since October. Most key Asian benchmarks were in the green. India was one exception, with tech heavyweights sliding on concern that
slower growth in the US may hurt spending by their clients. Markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were shut for holidays. Chinese biotech stocks rose as some of the major players report better-than-expected earnings. Taiwan +2.8%, Kospi +1.6%,
ASX 200 +1%, Thailand +0.9%, Vietnam +0.8%, Hang Seng Index +0.4%, Topix +0.1%, CSI 300 was flat. Singapore -0.1%, Sensex -1.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries rose as they continue to benefit from haven demand, with futures reaching session highs after the Washington Post reported a White House proposal to impose
tariffs of around 20% on most imports. Additional support comes from steeper gains for bunds after euro-area inflation eased further toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target. US yields are 3bp-5bp richer across maturities with gains led by intermediates,
flattening 2s10s spread by around 2bp; 10-year is on session lows around 4.160%. US session includes March US manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and ISM.  

 

METALS: 

Gold hit another all-time high with base metals largely supported by Chinese Manufacturing PMI. The precious metal has been one of the strongest performing commodities
this year, posting its best quarter since 1986. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds have climbed more than 6% so far in 2025, following four years of net outflows. Physical demand and a favorable macro backdrop are helping drive the rally, according
to strategists at Morgan Stanley. Silver is lower as it continues to bump against key Fibonacci .618 retracement. Spot gold +0.25%, Silver -0.6%, Copper +0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied near five-week highs as threats by President Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran countered worries about the impact
of a trade war on global growth. Russia has ordered the Black Sea terminal handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports pumped by US majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ over excess production.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) exports around 1% of global oil supply via the Russian terminal. OPEC+ is set to gradually revive halted oil production from today after repeated delays. OPEC+ countries will be able to boost oil output by 88,000 barrels
per day in April compared to March, according to figures published by OPEC. WTI ~flat, Brent ~flat, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB -0.2%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is slightly higher with price action fairly contained ahead of “Liberation Day.” The dollar ended the quarter with its weakest start
to a year since 2017. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc held firm, as traditional haven assets drew demand. The Aussie dollar pared gains seen after the RBA stood pat on rates with a slight hawkish tone to the statement. The euro slipped after euro-area inflation
eased further toward the ECB’s 2% target as officials weigh whether or not to continue lowering interest rates this month. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDMXN
+0.25%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.8%, Ethereum +2.2%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AutoZone (AZO) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $3,811
    • Enova International (ENVA) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $117
    • First of Long Island (FLIC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $16.56
    • First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $22
    • HomeStreet (HMST) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $14
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
    • Nayax (NYAX IT) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Sabre (SABR) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $3
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $127
    • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $423
  • Downgrades
    • Air Canada (AC CN) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT C$12
    • American Air (AAL) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $12
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $46
    • Genuine Parts (GPC) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $114
    • Kroger (KR) Cut to Sell at Melius; PT $58
    • Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • Mr Cooper (COOP) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Southwest Air (LUV) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $28
    • Vipshop (VIPS) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $18
  • Initiations
    • Advanced Drainage (WMS) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $134
    • Aeva Technologies (AEVA) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $9.50
    • Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $6
    • Arbe Robotics (ARBE) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $1.75
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $10.50
    • Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $36
    • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $34
    • BlackLine Inc (BL) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $58
    • BOK Financial (BOKF) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $115
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $151
    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) Reinstated Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • Cameco (CCO CN) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $255
    • Core & Main (CNM) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $60
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $450
    • CyberArk (CYBR) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $440
    • Ferguson (FERG) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $174
    • Fortinet (FTNT) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $108
    • Fortune Brands (FBIN) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $70
    • Griffon (GFF) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $91
    • Installed Building (IBP) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $183
    • KNOT Offshore (KNOP) Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT $12.70
    • Linkbancorp (LNKB) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $8.50
    • Lumina Gold Corp (LUM CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$1.50
    • Masco (MAS) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $71
    • Mohawk Industries (MHK) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $121
    • Molecular Partners (MOLN SW) ADRs Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $8
    • MongoDB (MDB) Rated New Outperform at Daiwa; PT $202
    • New Jersey Resources (NJR) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $51
    • Okta (OKTA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $127
    • On Holding (ONON) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $44
    • Owens Corning (OC) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $183
    • Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Neutral at Daiwa; PT $90
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $205
    • Pool Corp (POOL) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $344
    • Rapid7 (RPD) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $33
    • Regenxbio (RGNX) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $50
    • Rezolve AI (RZLV) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $4
    • SentinelOne (S) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $25
    • SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $135
    • Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $210
    • SouthState Corp (SSB) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $120
    • Tenable (TENB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $42
    • TopBuild (BLD) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $356
    • Trex (TREX) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $85
    • Zscaler (ZS) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $255

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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