Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 2, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Employment Change; 10:00ET Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods; 4:30ET
Fed’s Kugler speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Israel cancelled all of the customs duties levied on products from the US
  • China clamps down on Chinese firms investing in the US
  • India Plans EV Tariff Cuts for US Trade Deal
  • Trump to weigh TikTok bids ahead of a weekend deadline for its Chinese owners to divest the app
  • The number of people detained after illegally crossing the US-Mexico border hit a record low last month
  • Actor Val Kilmer dies of pneumonia at age 65

 

Global stock markets are lower as the world braces for President Trump’s tariffs announcement, with speculation swirling over the details of the proposed trade action.
Trading partners including China, Mexico and Canada have vowed to retaliate, while Israel eliminated tariffs on US imports.  China intensified a de facto blockade of Taiwan and railed against a US jet fighter deal with Manila, heightening tensions with Washington
as economic ties fray. Global lenders expect China to deliver monetary stimulus as soon as this month, driven by the threat of US tariff hikes and a seasonal cash shortage. Israel is expanding military operations in Gaza, with plans to broaden ground incursions
and turn seized land into buffer zones.     

 

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures are lower as Trump’s team is finalizing plans for new import taxes to be unveiled at 4pm EST today, with several proposals under consideration, including a tiered tariff
system and a customized reciprocal plan. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be a cap — reflecting the highest levels they’ll go, with countries then able to take steps to bring rates down. Trump is targeting massively imbalanced
trade between the US and the world, with a goods trade deficit that exceeds $1.2 trillion. Walmart is still pressuring Chinese suppliers to cut prices by up to 10% to offset tariffs, sources said. Technology stocks slid in premarket trading, with Tesla and
Palantir Technologies both shedding more than 2%. Healthcare stocks are losing ground as mass layoffs at the US Department of Health spread uncertainty over the outlook for vaccines and gene therapies.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell 2000 -1.2%, DJI -0.7%.

In pre-market trading, Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) tumbles 29% after posting top-line data in its phase 2 study of EDG-7500. NCino (NCNO) slides 34% after the software
company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Newsmax (NMAX) drops 20% as the conservative media outlet pauses its blinding IPO rally which saw shares surge 2,230% since its debut this week. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) slips 2% after registering a direct offering
of 2.7m shares, with the offering priced at $19.06 each. Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) slips 1% after Raymond James cut the recommendation on the financial services firm ahead of the upcoming earnings. TTEC Holdings (TTEC) soars 27% as the IT services company
said it’s open to discussing CEO Kenneth Tuchman’s offer to buy the remaining shares he and his affiliates don’t already own at $6.85 per share.

Utilities have outperformed over the last week, with XLU settling just below a short term key trend line.

European gauges are broadly lower as the EU expects a flat double-digit tariff across all goods. European stocks are at risk because the region is considered by the
US to be one of the worst offenders from a trade perspective. If there is a tiered or targeted tariff system, the UK and Spain are tipped to suffer the least.  Healthcare stocks among the biggest losers as mass layoffs at the US Department of Health spread
uncertainty over the outlook for vaccines and gene therapies. Novo Nordisk A/S fell more than 2% after US firm Hims & Hers Health said it was broadening its weight-loss drug offerings. Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell as much as 1.8% after Bloomberg reported the
automaker is considering withdrawing its least expensive cars from the US as tariffs would likely make their sales economically unfeasible. Stoxx 600 -0.8%, DAX -1.4%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.7%. Aero & Defense -2.7%, Healthcare -1.9%, Industrial Goods -1.6%,
Banks -1.2%. Food & Bev +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed as investors positioned cautiously ahead of tariffs. Topix fell as much as 1.2% before paring much of the loss, while Hang Seng and mainland
China indexes were relatively flat. China has taken measures to limit its companies from making investments in the United States in an effort to gain more leverage in potential trade talks. Vietnam will send another delegation to the US this weekend. Thailand
pledged to narrow its trade surplus. Japanese government agencies are negotiating with US counterparts to secure more details on Washington’s tariff plans, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said. In a move aimed at fending off reciprocal tariffs, India is open
to cutting tariffs on more than half of US imports worth $23 billion in the first phase of a trade deal the two nations are negotiating.  Philippines +1.1%, Sensex +0.8%, Thailand +0.4%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.1%, Taiwan +0.1%, Vietnam +0.05%. Hang Seng
Index -0.02%, CSI 300 -0.08%, Singapore -0.4%, Topix -0.4%, Kospi -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries extend gains into the early US session, near the highs of the day and yields lower by up to 3bp across the belly of the curve. Treasury yields held near
one-month lows with US 10-year yield down ~3bp at 4.14%, with 5s30s and 2s10s spreads steeper by 1.5bp, unwinding a portion of a sharp two-day flattening move.

 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher ahead of President Trump’s implementation of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, which are expected to take effect later today. Spot gold is hovering
around $3,120 an ounce, about $30 short of its latest high, reached in the previous session. The White House and Trump have been reticent to provide details of the targets and scale of the levies, which will apply right after they are rolled out at a 4 p.m.
EST event in Washington. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.2%, Copper +0.7%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices edge lower as uncertainty surrounding the scope of US tariffs continues to pressure commodity markets. Fears that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on
major trade partners could hurt global economic growth and demand for crude are weighing on sentiment. However, losses are capped by concerns over tightening supplies after Trump’s threats against Russia and Iran. US crude inventories jumped by 6 million barrels
last week, API reported. That would be the biggest surge in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Brazilian crude exports rose to a 17-month high in March, with flows to China hitting the most in a year. Meanwhile, Colorado declared nuclear power to be
“clean energy,” opening a path for more reactors in the state. WTI -0.4%, Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas +0.6%, RBOB -0.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is lower, trading in a tight range overnight as traders anxiously awaited details of Trump’s tariff plan. Goldman Sachs said the yen
offers investors the best currency hedge should the chances of a US recession increase. Antipodean currencies outperform, with the New Zealand Dollar up the most against the greenback, advancing in part on buying from exporters hedging out of US dollars on
the premise that reciprocal tariffs will be more centered than harsh. US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD +0.45%, NZDUSD +0.8%, USDNOK -0.4%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.6%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum -2.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $148.52
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Raised to Buy at Daiwa; PT $225
      • Raised to Overweight at Guotai Junan Sec; PT $254
    • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $6
    • Equitable Holdings (EQH) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $77
    • Fiserv (FI) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $260
    • Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Raised to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Idacorp (IDA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $133
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $183
    • Reinsurance Group (RGA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $237
    • Rocket Cos. (RKT) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $16
      • Raised to Market Perform at KBW; PT $14
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Raised to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $75
    • Schwab (SCHW) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $102
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $70
    • Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $3.25
  • Downgrades
    • Altria (MO) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $60
    • Beacon Roofing (BECN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $124.35
    • BioLine RX (BLRX IT) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jones
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Cut to Sell at UBS; PT $28
    • Exro Technologies (EXRO CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital
      • Cut to Underperform at National Bank
    • FTI Consulting (FCN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $178
    • nCino (NCNO) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $21
      • Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $19
    • Paramount Global (PARA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $12
    • Reinsurance Group (RGA) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $216
    • Synovus (SNV) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Third Coast (TCBX) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Timken (TKR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Truist Financial (TFC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • USCB Financial (USCB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
  • Initiations
    • Aqua Metals (AQMS) Reinstated Speculative Buy at Benchmark; PT $3
    • Associated Banc (ASB) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $24
    • BNY Mellon (BK) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $97
    • Boston Beer (SAM) Reinstated Hold at Berenberg; PT $218.10
    • Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP-U CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Brookfield Renewable (BEPC CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $37.50
    • Cadence Bank (CADE) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $34
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $42
    • Citizens Financial (CFG) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $50
    • Comerica (CMA) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $60
    • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $61
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $20
    • Cullen/Frost (CFR) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $127
    • DLP Resources (DLP CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $94
    • EHang Holdings (EH) ADRs Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $30
    • Fifth Third (FITB) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $45
    • First Citizens (FCNCA) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $2,003
    • First Horizon (FHN) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $22
    • Flagstar Financial (FLG) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $13
    • FNB Corp (FNB) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $15
    • Fulton Financial (FULT) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $18
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $370
    • Hancock Whitney (HWC) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $58
    • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $16
    • KeyCorp (KEY) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $17
    • Labcorp (LH) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $276
    • M&T Bank (MTB) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $209
    • Molson Coors (TAP) Reinstated Buy at Berenberg; PT $86.90
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $103
    • NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $18
    • Odysight.ai (ODYS) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $10
    • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $117
    • PNC Financial (PNC) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $202
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $195
    • Regions Financial (RF) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $23
    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) Rated New Buy at Spin-Off Research; PT $28
    • Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Neutral at Macquarie; PT $160
    • State Street (STT) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $99
    • Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $422
    • Synovus (SNV) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $53
    • Texas Capital (TCBI) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $82
    • Truist Financial (TFC) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $42
    • U.S. Bancorp (USB) Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $46
    • Webster Financial (WBS) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $58
    • Western Alliance (WAL) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $93
    • Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $126
    • Zions (ZION) Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $52

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed