Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  1:00ET 3-year note auction; 2:00ET Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

• China vows firm response to US tariffs: Will fight to the end
• Ukraine Plans to Send Envoys to US for Talks Starting Friday: Plan Technical Talks on Minerals Deal
• Taiwan Stabilization Fund Decides to Support Stock Market
• BESSENT: COUNTRIES THAT DIDN’T ESCALATE WILL GET TALKS PRIORITY
• Trump administration is considering launching drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico
• Iran confirmed that it’ll hold nuclear talks with the US this weekend
  

Global stock markets rose following three days of intense selling that erased trillions in share value, though sentiment remained guarded as attention turned to whether
Washington might negotiate on some of its aggressive tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that “almost 70” countries have contacted the White House regarding negotiating tariffs and that Japan would get priority. The EU is proposing tariffs on a selection
of US goods, including diamonds, motorcycles, and agricultural products, with most facing a 25% tariff.  China refused to bow to what it called “blackmail” from the United States, with little indication that the worldwide trade conflict was easing.     

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rebound after three days of steep losses and violent volatility, with S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all hit bear market territory. Monday marked the highest trading volume
for US markets in at least 18 years. News of potential negotiations between US and some countries on tariffs helped sentiment. Futures got an additional lift after Scott Bessent’s comments on CNBC this morning, saying that countries that don’t escalate will
get priority in talks, and solid proposals on tariffs may lead to good deals. Senate Republican leader John Thune said he didn’t think a bipartisan bill that would give lawmakers greater oversight of Trump’s tariffs has a future.  Earnings season kicks off
this Friday, with big US banks reporting, and analysts see year-over-year earnings growth of 6.7% for the S&P 500 in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley upgraded its ratings across exchange operators and brokers, hunting for more defensive exposure.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.5%, Russell 2000 +3.2%, DJI +2.8%.

E-Mini S&P: not a bad spot to get a bounce from, the 2021 significant high and the 200-week mvg avg.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia is leading the Magnificent Seven higher: Nvidia (NVDA) +4%, Amazon (AMZN) +3.3%, Meta (META) +3%, Tesla (TSLA) +3.0%, Alphabet (GOOGL)
+2.5%, Apple (AAPL) +1.6%. Broadcom (AVGO) gains 6% after announcing plans to buy back as much as $10 billion in shares. Health insurance stocks are rallying after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 5.06% average increase in payments
to Medicare Advantage plans from 2025 to 2026, an increase from its earlier projection. Humana (HUM) +14%, Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) +10%, CVS (CVS) +8.8%, UnitedHealth (UNH) +7.2%, Centene (CNC) +4.9%. El Pollo Loco (LOCO) rises 10% after receiving an unsolicited,
non-binding indication of interest from Biglari Capital Corp. Levi Strauss (LEVI) jumps 11% after the apparel retailer maintained its full-year outlook in the face of sweeping new US tariffs.

NVDA vs SOXX ETF: back above the cloud is a positive.

European gauges are broadly higher, paring some of the sizable declines seen on Monday, even as President Trump rejected a European Union proposal to drop tariffs on
all bilateral trade in industrial goods with the US. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up more than 2% with defense, Industrials and financial services stocks leading gains while telecommunications lag. All major sub-sectors are in the green.  Among individual
movers, Infineon Technologies AG shares reversed earlier losses after the semiconductor maker agreed to buy Marvell Technology’s automotive networking business for $2.5 billion in cash. Pandora A/S shares dropped 2% after JPMorgan downgraded the jewelry maker
as tariffs cloud visibility for the luxury sector. Stoxx 60i +2.3%, DAX +2.2%, CAC +2.2%, FTSE 100 +2.4%. Aero & Defense +5.8%, Fin Services +3.8%, Industrials +3.6%. Telecom +0.1%.  

Shares in Asia rebounded from their worst selloff on record, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 2.4%. Japanese shares surged on hopes of a tariff deal with the
US, while Chinese gauges rose after the country’s sovereign wealth funds stepped in to buy shares. President Xi Jinping vows to “fully unleash” consumption in the face of US tariffs. Thai stocks dropped over 4% in catch-up selling after a holiday on Monday,
while Indonesia returned from a week-long holiday to 9% losses. Its central bank pledged to intervene, joining efforts by other global authorities to stem the rout in recent days. Shares in Taiwan and Vietnam extended their declines. Vietnam’s steel-related
stocks tumble after a report that the US Department of Commerce will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on the country’s galvanized steel products. Topix +6.3%, Hang Seng Tech +3.8%, Philippines +3.2%, ASX 200 +2.3%, CSI 300 +1.7%, Hang Seng Index +1.5%,
Sensex +1.5%, Kospi +0.3%. Singapore -2%, Taiwan -4%, Thailand -4.5%, Vietnam -6.4%, Indonesia -7.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are higher after posting their biggest one-day jump in a year, and the wildest day for bond traders since the height of the pandemic. There was chatter
yesterday that foreign owners, including China, were selling US treasuries. The market’s next big test will come from the Treasury’s sale of $58 billion of new three-year notes today, followed later this week by offerings of 10-and 30-year debt. 10-year yield
is up ~4bps at 4.21%: 2s10s curve +1bp: 5s30s -2bps.  

METALS: 

Gold climbed, snapping a three-day slump, and is back above $3,000 an ounce after shedding almost 5% over the prior three days, the worst drop since 2021. Gold was
caught up in the turmoil that saw global markets sell off sharply in the previous few days, as can happen during periods of extreme dislocation as investors seek to cover losses elsewhere. Spot gold +1.1%, Silver +1%, Copper +2.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied near $64 a barrel for Brent as traders assessed the latest tariff moves from President Trump and possible retaliatory measures. Brent tested key
.618 Fibonacci retracement yesterday around $63. Banks have been cutting their forecasts, with Societe Generale SA seeing West Texas Intermediate at $57 a barrel by the end of this year.  Brent may drop below $40 in the extreme scenario of both a global slowdown
and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts, Goldman said. That view doesn’t represent the bank’s current base-case outlook, which has oil at $55 next December. China’s latest tariffs on US crude may completely halt imports, with the 44% total levy making costs unsustainable,
JLC said. Shipments were down 40% year-on-year in the Jan.-Feb period.  WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +0.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar trades lower versus most major peers after China stepped up efforts to support the market and vowed to “fight to the end” after Trump
threatened additional levies unless Beijing removes its duties on US imports. Antipodean currencies led gains in the Group-of-10 space as stocks staged a modest recovery. Aussie dollar is the best G-10 performer, rising more than 1% against the greenback.
The PBOC eased yuan controls, signaling tolerance for currency depreciation.  US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.45%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.7%, AUDUSD +1.1%, NZDUSD +1.1%, USDNOK -0.5%, USDCHF -0.7%, USDCAD -0.6%, USDSEK -0.4%.

Bitcoin +1.1%, Ethereum +0.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AGCO (AGCO) Raised to Buy at Citi
• Agilon Health (AGL) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $8.50
• Antero Resources (AR) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $46
• Ares Management (ARES) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $165
• Blackstone (BX) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $165
• Cboe (CBOE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $235
• CDW (CDW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $171
• Centene (CNC) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $64
• CME Group (CME) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Dollar General (DG) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $110
• EQT Corp (EQT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $54
• Essent (ESNT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $60
• Evercore (EVR) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $230
• Expand Energy (EXE) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen
• First American (FAF) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $75
• FNF (FNF) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $69
• Guild Holdings (GHLD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12
• Gulfport Energy (GPOR) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $197
• Knight-Swift (KNX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $48
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $17
• MarketAxess (MKTX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Raised to Hold at CFRA; PT $1,045
• Nubank (NU) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $13
• Old Dominion (ODFL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $183
• Palomar (PLMR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $150
• PennyMac (PFSI) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $114
• Ralph Lauren (RL) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $240
• Range Resources (RRC) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $42
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $284
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $14
• Ross Stores (ROST) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $150
• RPC Inc. (RES) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $4.75
• Schneider National (SNDR) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $23
• Schwab (SCHW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $76
• SkyWest (SKYW) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $117
• SLB (SLB) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $44
• Southern Co (SO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $94
• Teradata (TDC) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $26
• Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $244
• WEC Energy (WEC) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $77
• Welltower (WELL) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $158
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $29
• Wix.com (WIX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $176
• Downgrades
• AIG (AIG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $91
• Alcoa (AA) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $26
• AMD (AMD) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• American Air (AAL) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $8
• Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $45
• Chegg (CHGG) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Dominion Energy (D) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $5
• GE Aerospace (GE) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
• Lemonade (LMND) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $74
• Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
• Occidental (OXY) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $45
• Robinhood (HOOD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• Signet (SIG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $70
• Tradeweb (TW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $148
• Virtu Financial (VIRT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $26
• Initiations
• Advantage Energy Ltd (AAV CN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $50
• ARC Resources (ARX CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$33
• Birchcliff Energy (BIR CN) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
• Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $245
• Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
• Inspired Entertainment (INSE) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $13
• Iron Mountain (IRM) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $95
• Kalaris Therapeutics Inc (KLRS) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Kelt Exploration (KEL CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• LifeStance Health (LFST) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $9
• MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $134
• MYR Group (MYRG) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $124
• NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$18
• Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Paramount Resources (POU CN) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
• Peyto Exploration (PEY CN) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James
• Primo Brands (PRMB) Resumed Buy at TD Cowen; PT $48
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $75
• Quanta Services (PWR) Reinstated Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $286
• Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Red River (RRBI) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $57
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $120
• Spyre Therapeutics Inc (SYRE) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $45
• Sun Communities (SUI) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $150
• Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$78
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $75
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $30
• VolitionRX (VNRX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $2.50
• Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $18
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $31

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke