Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET CPI*, Real Avg Hourly Earnings, Jobless Claims; 1:00ET 30-year note auction; 2:00ET
Federal Budget Balance

Fed speaker slate includes Logan (9:30am), Bowman (10am), Schmid (10am), Goolsbee (12pm) and Harker (12pm). US MARCH CORE CPI RISES 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%

Highlights and News:  

  • EU to Present Trade Priorities to Trump Today
  • Australia turns down China’s offer to ‘join hands’ to fight US tariffs
  • EU TO PAUSE COUNTER-TARIFFS ON US FOR 90 DAYS;  WORK ON COUNTERMEASURES CONTINUES
  • Hassett: A Few Trade Deals Really Well Advanced; Talks with China Have Not Begun Yet – CNBC
  • China Says US Needs ‘Attitude of Equality’ for Talks to Start

 

World stocks see a relief rally and a frenzied bond selloff calmed down after President Trump announced he would temporarily reduce the steep additional tariffs he
had just placed on numerous countries, except China. The pause came less than 24 hours after they kicked in. Meanwhile, Trump further ramped up pressure on China by hiking the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% from 104% that kicked in on Wednesday in retaliation
for China’s announcement of an 84% levy on US goods. Global markets are experiencing mixed reactions, with European and Asian markets rallying, while US markets are pulling back after yesterday’s massive gains. The European Union will delay implementing counter
tariffs against the US for 90 days as EU President Ursula von der Leyen wants to give negotiations with the US a chance.  Australia declined Beijing’s proposal to work together to counter US tariffs, saying it would continue to diversify its trade and lower
its reliance on China. 

 

EQUITIES: 
Fear & Greed Index went from 3 to 23 in one day, never seen anything like that before.

US equity futures are lower, taking a breather after a historic rally that saw the highest volume day for US stocks on record as the ‘Trump put’ finally makes its appearance. E-Mini S&P
futures are down more than 1% after its biggest daily gain since October 2008, settling right on the March 13 significant low, roughly a 50% retracement from the February high. The Nasdaq Composite surged over 12% on Wednesday for its biggest gain since January
2001, during the dotcom market bubble. The focus among traders is shifting to the impact of an economic downturn and prolonged volatility as earnings season kicks off. Citigroup advisers are saying “don’t chase this, don’t buy the dip.” Consumer inflation
data and a Treasury auction of 30-year bonds will be a closely watched today for any signs of nervousness around owning US debt. 

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P -1.5%, Nasdaq -2.3%, Russell 2000 -3.4%, DJI -1.5%

In pre-market trading, Tesla and Nvidia are leading premarket losses in the Magnificent Seven: Tesla (TSLA) -3.7%, Nvidia (NVDA) -3.9%, Meta (META) -2.2%, Apple (AAPL)
-3.6%, Amazon (AMZN) -3.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -1.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) -1.7%. Consumer and financial firms are declining Consumer: Walmart (WMT) -1.1%, Nike (NKE) -3%, Lululemon (LULU) -2% Major US banks: JPMorgan (JPM) -1.4%, Goldman Sachs (GS) -2%, Bank of
America (BAC) -2%. CarMax Inc. (KMX) falls 7% after the company pulled the time period it plans to achieve long-term targets. Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) declines 2.4% after issuing downbeat guidance for the year. Keros Therapeutics (KROS) climbs 16% after
initiating a formal review to evaluate strategic alternatives for the company. Lovesac (LOVE) climbs 16% after the direct-to-consumer furniture retailer posted quarterly results and provided a year outlook. Topgolf Callaway (MODG) rises 5% after agreeing to
sell its Jack Wolfskin business to Anta Sports. US Steel (X) drops 10% after Trump said that while he loves Japan, he didn’t want a Japanese company to buy the steel manufacturer.

European gauges surged, catching up to the previous day’s massive rally on Wall Street, after Trump announced an immediate 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most
trading partners. EU leaders are set to present trade priorities to Trump today and have repeatedly flagged several concessions to Washington, but the response has been far from encouraging. The Stoxx 600 surged over 7% at the open before paring some of its
gains. All sectors are in the green with banks, financial services and technology stocks leading gains. In company news, Barry Callebaut slumped over 23% after the Swiss chocolate maker lowered its annual volume guidance due to what it called “unprecedented
volatility” in cocoa bean prices. Tesco fell 6.9% after Britain’s biggest food retailer warned its profit would likely fall this year. Stoxx 600 +5.2%, DAX +5.4%, CAC +5.1%, FTSE 100 +4.2%. Financial Services +7%, Technology +6.9%, Banks +6.6%, Basic Resources
+6.4%.

Shares in Asia jumped as Trump’s decision to pause higher tariffs on most trading partners sparked a risk-on rally across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged
5.3%, while Taiwanese stocks climbed by a record, leading gains in Asia. Japan, South Korea and Vietnam were among the other big gainers, with technology and financials among the top-performing sectors. China retaliated against the US after Trump’s abrupt
shift in tariff threats singled out Beijing as the main focus of his trade assault, reducing hopes of immediate de-escalation. The Chinese government said it will reduce the number of US films allowed to enter the country. Stocks in China and Hong Kong still
rose, suggesting that investors are counting on more stimulus support from Beijing. Taiwan +9.2%, Nikkei 225 +9.1%, Vietnam +6.8%, Kospi +6.6%, Singapore +5.6%, Indonesia +4.8%, ASX 200 +4.5%, Thailand +4.2%, Hang Seng Index +2.1%, CSI 300 +1.3%, Philippines
+1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed ahead of US inflation data with shorter-dated yields 4bp-7bp richer, steepening the yield curve on the heels of Wednesday’s violent flattening
move sparked by Trump administration’s tariffs pause. Week’s final coupon auction of 30-year bonds lands during US afternoon. US 10-year yields up 1bp at 4.33% ahead CPI. 2s10s steeper by 9bps. 

 

METALS: 

Gold extended its climb and was last up over 1% at $3,126 an ounce after posting its biggest one-day gain in 18 months, as confusion over Trump’s tariff agenda drove
investors to buy the precious metal as a haven. Gold is also supported today by a weaker dollar. Focus now turns to US CPI data this morning. Spot gold +1.5%, Silver -0.6%, Copper +4.3%.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices decline, with WTI falling nearly 3% to $60.70 a barrel as investors fretted about the continued growth shock from the worsening Sino-US trade war. Trump’s
steep tariffs on China overshadowed his 90-day pause on higher rates for most other countries. Trump said he was open to negotiating deals with countries that don’t retaliate. The flow of oil from the world’s biggest producer to its largest importer is set
to thin to virtually zero as a trade war between the two powerhouse economies escalates. WTI -2.7%, Brent -2.6%, US Nat Gas -2.7%, RBOB -2.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

A mood shift is evident in currency markets where haven demand has returned, pushing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to the top of the G-10 leader board. The dollar
fell versus the euro and low yielding currencies as the relief rally in risk assets was short-lived. Focus also on US CPI data due this morning. China’s onshore yuan dropped to levels last seen in 2007 against the dollar, before paring the move. US$ Index
-1%, GBPUSD +0.8%, EURUSD +1.3%, USDJPY -1.6%, AUDUSD +0.6%, NZDUSD +1.1%, USDCHF -2.3%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.5%, USDMXN +0.5%. 

 

 

Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -4.4%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AppLovin (APP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $350
    • ArcelorMittal (MT NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $31.70
    • Assurant (AIZ) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $223
    • Aurora Innovation (AUR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $6
    • Axalta (AXTA) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $38
    • Bentley Systems (BSY) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $49
    • Block (XYZ) Raised to Neutral at Arete; PT $52
    • BorgWarner (BWA) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $34
    • Carnival (CCL) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $21
    • Danaher (DHR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $205
    • ManpowerGroup (MAN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $50
    • Melco Resorts (MLCO) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $6.25
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $156
    • Pet Valu (PET CN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$28.50
    • Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $20
    • Sensata (ST) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $27
    • Toast (TOST) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $39
    • Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $11.50
    • Western Digital (WDC) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $55
  • Downgrades
    • AES Corp (AES) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $10
    • Cboe (CBOE) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $227
    • Charter Communications (CHTR) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane
    • Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $31
    • Easterly Government (DEA) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $9.50
    • Eversource (ES) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $58
    • First Advantage (FA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $15
    • Ford (F) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $9
    • Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $6
    • Icon (ICLR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $165
    • Iqvia (IQV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $170
    • Lear (LEA) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $84
    • Lineage (LINE) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $56
    • Manhattan Associates (MANH) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $170
    • Portland General (POR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $44
    • ProAssurance (PRA) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
    • Tempest Therapeutics Inc (TPST) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • Visteon (VC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $74
  • Initiations
    • Apollo Global (APO) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $173
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $42
    • BlackSky Technology (BKSY) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $12
    • Dexcom Inc (DXCM) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $85
    • Embecta (EMBC) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $15
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $60
    • Guardant Health (GH) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Kenvue (KVUE) Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $23.50
    • Ligand Pharma (LGND) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $143
    • MannKind (MNKD) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $12
    • MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $38
    • NowVertical Group (NOW CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada
    • Orrstown (ORRF) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $35
    • Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $89
    • Senseonics (SENS) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $2
    • Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $20
    • Verastem (VSTM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $15
    • Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $175
    • ZimVie (ZIMV) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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