Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 11, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks; 8:30ET PPI; 9:00ET Fed’s Collins speaks; 10:00ET U. of Mich.
Sentiment, Fed’s Musalem speaks; 11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, Fed’s Williams speaks  

Highlights and News:  

  • US MARCH PRODUCER PRICES FALL 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.2%
  • US MARCH PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY FALLS 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%
  • China raises tariffs on US to 125%, won’t go higher: Xi Jinping will tour Southeast Asia next week
  • Chinese Exchanges Restrict Daily Stock Sales, Apply to Hedge Funds, Large Retail: Reuters
  • House Passes Plan to Advance Trump Tax Cuts, Debt Limit Boost
  • EU TRADE CHIEF SEFCOVIC TO MEET US OFFICIALS MONDAY IN DC
  • GREER: WILL SPEAK TO ISRAEL COUNTERPART, TAIWAN TODAY
  • KREMLIN: NO BREAKTHROUGHS SEEN FROM WITKOFF’S VISIT: IFX

 

World stocks reversed early losses made after China raised tariffs on all US goods from 84% to 125% with effect from April 12. China warned that it plans to “resolutely
counterattack and fight to the end” if the US continues to infringe on its rights and interests.  The US. and Vietnam have agreed to begin formal trade talks and Japan has set up a trade task force that hopes to visit Washington next week. EU trade chief Sefcovic
is to meet US officials on Monday. The EU has delayed the implementation of its counter tariffs against the US and is ready to retaliate if necessary, with options including targeting services and US tech companies. Britain’s economy grew 0.5% in February,
posting the strongest growth in almost a year as factories ramped up production ahead of Trump’s wave of tariffs. China’s rare-earth exports have almost halted as tighter permit rules take effect. The delays may take weeks to clear, threatening to shake-up
the global supply chains for high-tech industries in the US, Europe, and Japan.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fell after China raised tariffs on all US goods to 125% from 84% starting tomorrow but have reversed losses to trade higher as quarterly earnings season begins. S&P
500 and Nasdaq both traded down as much as 2% earlier before rallying. Foreign investors dumped $6.5 billion of US equities in the five trading sessions ending Wednesday, BofA Global Research said. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett advised investors to sell
any rallies until the Federal Reserve steps in and the US and China de-escalate. Congressional leaders successfully passed a Senate-passed budget outline in the House, paving the way for a tax cut package and debt ceiling increase. Big banks kick off earnings
season today. BNY Mellon’s profit jumped 21% as the bank reinvested maturing securities at higher yields. BlackRock shares fell premarket after pulling in a less-than-expected $83 billion of new client money in the first quarter. Google laid off hundreds of
employees in its platforms and devices unit, The Information reported. Citi is lowering its estimates and price targets across the semiconductor sector, writing that a recession is likely given tariffs.   

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.05%, DJI +0.3%

The 50 day mvg avg is about to cross the 200 day, a potentially bearish signal known as the
death cross.

In pre-market trading, shares in companies working on biotech AI models gain after the FDA said it plans to phase out animal testing requirements for monoclonal antibodies
and other drugs. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) +14%, Absci (ABSI) +15%, Certara (CERT) +20%, Schrodinger (SDGR) +14%, Nuvation Bio (NUVB) +2.9%. American Express (AXP) climbs 2.6% as BofA turns bullish, seeing the credit card provider as recession resilient.
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) rises 3% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight. JPMorgan (JPM) rises 2.6% as the bank’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, boosted by chaotic market moves. Morgan Stanley (MS) rises 3% as 1Q net revenue tops estimates.
Stellantis (STLA) shares fall 2.8% after the carmaker said shipments dropped 9% in the latest three month period. Verve Therapeutics (VERV) gains 6.6% after saying that the FDA granted fast track designation for VERVE-102. Wells Fargo (WFC) gains 1.7% after
posting quarterly results.

European gauges are mixed to lower but well off overnight lows as investors remain cautious about the economic effects of the US and China trade war.  The European
Union will use the 90-day pause in US tariffs to find an alternative solution with President Trump, according to the head of the Eurogroup. The UK economy grew a faster-than-expected 0.5% in February, reducing the immediate need for the BOE to ponder faster
easing. Factory output surged 2.2%, beating estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is slightly lower with Aero & Defense and industrial goods sectors leading losses while Utilities and Real Estate outperforming. Among individual stocks, Logitech International
SA fell as much as 3.3% after the electronics manufacturer withdrew its full-year 2026 outlook due to “continuing uncertainties” around the tariff environment. BP shares fell after it said debts mounted in the first quarter, while upstream production fell
and gas-trading performance was also weak. Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -1.3%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Aero & Defense -1.9%, Industrials -1.8%, Insurance -1.2%. Utilities +1.3%,Real Estate +1%, Food & Bev +0.8%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, reversing earlier losses led by gains in Taiwan and Vietnam.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with Taiwanese firms TSMC
and Hon Hai Precision among the biggest boost. Stocks in India advanced in a catch-up as trading resumed after a holiday. Equities traded lower in Japan and Korea, while those in Hong Kong rose for a fourth straight day. Japanese carmakers fall after Goldman
Sachs revises down earnings estimates and price targets. Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle companies jumped after Handelsblatt reports that the EU and China are starting talks to abolish EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Vietnam +4.6%,
Taiwan +2.8%, Sensex +1.8%, Hang Seng Index +1.1%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Indonesia and Philippines +0.1%. Nikkei 225 -3%, Singapore -1.8%, ASX 200 -0.8%, Kospi -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed with 2-year yield down ~3bps, 10-year steady and 30-year +1.5bps. The curve is modestly steeper with 2s10s +2bps. China’s holdings of US Treasuries
are under scrutiny amid wild swings in the US bond market, with some analysts suggesting Beijing may be selling Treasuries in retaliation to US tariffs.

 

METALS: 

Safe haven gold soared above $3,200 an ounce, hitting another record high due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy. The metal’s haven status
was underlined this week, with President Trump’s flip-flopping on tariffs sparking frantic selloffs for US stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Spot gold +1.2%, Silver +0.6%, Copper +2.9% at 7:45ET. 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are just slightly lower in choppy trade and are headed for a second straight weekly loss on concerns about a prolonged trade war between the United States
and China. The slump in oil prices is posing further fiscal difficulties for petrostates and oil-reliant nations dependent on petroleum revenues, compounding challenges from tariff-related issues. Oil at $60 is about $20 to $30 per barrel lower than what many
major oil exporters in the Gulf need to balance their budgets. For Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, its budget breakeven price is $91 per barrel, as estimated by the International Monetary Fund. WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas -2.3%, RBOB
+0.7%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In a week that’s seen the biggest swings in decades erupt across stock and bond markets, currency moves took the spotlight overnight. The dollar slid to its lowest
in 10 years against the Swiss franc, while the euro is the best performer and heading for its biggest two-day advance since 2009. Traders are losing confidence in the dollar’s long-term prospects at the fastest pace on record. The dollar saw its sharpest drop
in over two years on Thursday, driven by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates to offset the contractionary impact of US tariffs.
US$ Index fell to a six-month low, testing the key .618 Fibonacci retracement support from the 2020-2022 major move. The MSCI gauge of developing-nations’ FX jumped 0.9% overnight, heading for the biggest weekly gain in a month. The yen rallied to its
highest level since September 30. US$ Index -1%, GBPUSD +1%, EURUSD +1.25%, USDJPY -1.3%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +1.2%, USDCHF -1%, USDCAD -0.7%, USDNOK -1.45%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2.8%, Ethereum +2% at 7:50ET.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • American Express (AXP) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $274
    • California Water (CWT) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • Cinemark (CNK) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $34
    • CNX Resources (CNX) Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $33
    • Constellation Software (CSU CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen
    • Docusign (DOCU) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $70
    • EOG Resources (EOG) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $130
    • Everest Group Ltd (EG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $415
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $234
    • Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • L3Harris (LHX) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $263
    • Loblaw (L CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$215
    • Nektar (NKTR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $2
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $521
    • Topicus (TOI CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$170
    • Verizon (VZ) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $48
  • Downgrades
    • Booz Allen (BAH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $109
    • Chevron (CVX) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $143
    • Coty (COTY) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $5.65
    • Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7
    • Groupe Dynamite (GRGD CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$12
    • Joby Aviation (JOBY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $7
    • Magna Intl (MG CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$44.80
    • Occidental (OXY) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $40
    • Planet Labs (PL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $3.50
    • Skyward Specialty (SKWD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $59
  • Initiations
    • Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $16
    • Brunswick (BC) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $54
    • Casey’s (CASY) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $500
    • Churchill Downs (CHDN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $125
    • Confluent (CFLT) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $30
    • Costco (COST) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $975
    • Inter&Co (INTR) Rated New Outperform at Safra; PT $7
    • JFrog (FROG) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $40
    • Macom (MTSI) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $125
    • Malibu Boats (MBUU) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $37
    • MarineMax (HZO) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $43
    • MasterCraft Boat (MCFT) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $17
    • Murphy USA (MUSA) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $550
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • One Group Hospitality (STKS) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $5
    • Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp (PGC) US Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $39
    • Richtech Robotics (RR) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3.50
    • RumbleON (RMBL) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $3.50
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $115
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $28
    • Target (TGT) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $92
    • TransAlta (TA CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$12
    • Valens Semiconductor (VLN) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $4
    • Walmart (WMT) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $105

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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