Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 14, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations; 1:00ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 6:00ET Fed’s Harker
speaks; 7:40ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Warns Tariffs Coming for Electronics After Reprieve: “just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket”
  • Morgan Stanley, Citi cut US earnings estimates as season starts
  • Iran, US Plan Talks on Saturday After ‘Constructive’ Meeting
  • VIETNAM, CHINA SIGN 45 AGREEMENTS DURING XI JINPING VISIT: VTV
  • HASSETT: WE’RE MAKING ENORMOUS PROGRESS ON TARIFF TALKS WITH EU
  • HASSETT: AIMING AT SEMICONDUCTORS THAT INFLUENCE NAT. SECURITY

 

World stocks rose after President Trump paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics including smartphones and computers. Trump said it’s a temporary measure
while a different tariff will be announced to the sector in the coming week, and he is open to discussing the scope with companies. The exemption of 20 product types accounts for 23% of US imports from China. Japan’s prime minister said he won’t rush to compromise
in high-stakes trade negotiations with the US this week, which may set the tone for nations around the world that are seeking a reprieve from President Trump’s tariff campaign. Iran said the first formal talks with the Trump administration over its nuclear
program were “constructive,” and the two sides said they’ll meet again on April 19.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures continue their bounce after a late Friday reprieve, with Trump exempting a range of popular electronics from 125% tariffs on China and a 10% flat rate around the globe.
The exempted products are “just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket’” and the administration will be “taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN,” he posted on social media.  Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the exempted technology
products would face new duties within the next two months. S&P 500 futures gain over 1% after rallying 5.7% last week. Focus today will be on corporate earnings and New York Fed inflation expectations. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup slashed their estimates for
2025 earnings, with Citi downgrading US equities to “neutral” from “overweight.”  Goldman Sachs’ equity-trading revenue rose 27% from a year earlier, building on momentum from last week, when JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also notched record stock-trading hauls
for the period.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +1.4%, Nasdaq +1.7%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +1%

In pre-market trading, Apple (AAPL +5.5%) leads gains in Magnificent Seven stocks on the levy reprieve.  Shares of US obesity drug developers are extending gains in
after Pfizer (PFE) said it will stop developing its obesity pill due to a potentially drug-related liver injury. Eli Lilly (LLY) +1.9%, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) +13%, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) +13%. DuPont de Nemours (DD) rises 2.8% as KeyBanc turns
bullish on the chemical company. TMC the Metals Co. (TMC) climbs 18% and rare earths miner MP Materials (MP) gains 13% following a report President Trump is planning an order to enable the stockpiling of critical metals. Intel (INTC) gains 4.5% after reaching
a definitive agreement to sell 51% of its Altera business to Silver Lake.

European gauges advanced as trade war concerns eased, and attention turned to first-quarter earnings. The Stoxx 600 rises more than 2% with technology stocks among
the biggest gainers after tech giants in Apple’s supply chain surged in Asia. All 20 sub-groups in the benchmark climbed.  Among individual stocks, energy group Rubis climbed 8% after an analyst upgrade. Investors will scrutinize LVMH’s comments on tariffs
when it reports first-quarter results after the close, as the luxury goods sector faces declining earnings estimates. The impending first-quarter earnings season may reveal whether tariffs are yet having an impact on businesses as they reassess supply chains.
Stoxx 600 +2.1%, DAX +2.3%, CAC +2.1%, FTSE 100 +1.7%. Energy +3.8%, Banks +3.1%, Aero & Defense +2.7%, Technology +2.6%.

Shares in Asia rose, led by gains in Hong Kong, as risk sentiment rebounded after the tariff reshuffle. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.6%, with major Chinese
technology shares including Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest contributors.  Shares of Chinese e-commerce platforms gain after JD.com announced a plan to help Chinese exporters sell their products in the domestic market. Asian health-care stocks were among
the best performing sectors, with analysts’ expectations that the pharmaceutical sector could receive similar tariff exemptions to the ones applied to consumer electronics. Singapore’s benchmark rose as much as 2.3% after its central bank eased monetary policy
settings for a second straight review, while also downgrading its 2025 growth forecast.  Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs strategists cut their targets for key Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month. Markets in India and Thailand were shut for holidays.
Key points to watch this week include TSMC earnings and South Korean monetary policy on Thursday. Hang Seng Index +2.4%, Indonesia +1.7%, Vietnam +1.5%, ASX 200 +1.3%, Nikkei 225 +1.2%, Philippines and Singapore +1%, Kospi +0.95%, CSI 300 +0.25%. Taiwan -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold curve-steepening gains as US trading day begins, unwinding a portion of Friday’s sharp flattening move. Treasury yields are 2bp-5bp lower across maturities
led by intermediates, steepening 5s30s spread by 3bp. US 10-year yields fall ~4 bps to 4.45%, following the largest weekly rise in borrowing costs in decades. The Treasury market’s steepener bet is on a historic run as investors flee long-term US bonds. Italian
debt outperforms after S&P Global Ratings upgraded Italy to BBB+, three notches above junk. Corporate bond sales are expected to rebound, led by big-bank offerings after several reported quarterly results.

 

METALS: 

Gold slipped from a record high after the tariff announcement, although uncertainty around tariff plans kept prices above the significant $3,200 per ounce level.
Goldman Sachs increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows. The People’s Bank of China has allocated fresh gold import quotas to some commercial banks
to meet increased demand from institutional and retail investors amid the escalating trade war. The decision is part of the central bank’s routine functions and should not be interpreted as a view on prices or a sign of central bank purchases, sources said.
Spot gold -0.4%, Silver ~flat, Copper +1.9%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rose as traders weighed the latest moves in the global trade war, as well as “constructive” talks between Washington and Tehran. Weekend discussions in
Oman were the first high-level meeting since 2022, indicating a fresh push to address the ongoing deadlock over Iran’s nuclear program. Both parties committed to further talks. Traders will analyze OPEC’s monthly report, set for release later today, for insights
into underlying market conditions. Meanwhile, Washington and Saudi Arabia are working on an accord to cooperate on civilian nuclear power production, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.  WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.2%, US Nat Gas +0.4%, RBOB +1.8%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, tariff uncertainty was still exerting downward pressure on the dollar, with the US$ Index hitting its lowest level in three-years. The upbeat
market mood is evident as havens slip, with the Swiss franc among the weakest of the G-10 currencies. Sterling gains as traders await UK jobs data due Tuesday. The yen edges higher. Japanese authorities are preparing for trade talks with the US, expected to
address currency policy, with some officials anticipating pressure from Washington to prop up the yen. US$ Index -0.6%, GBPUSD +0.6%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF +0.7%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.9%, USDNOK -0.9%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum +5% 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • America Movil (AMXB MM) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $17.50
    • Apple (AAPL) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Atlassian (TEAM) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $255
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $138
    • Choice Properties REIT (CHP-U CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
    • DuPont de Nemours (DD) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $81
    • EHang Holdings (EH) ADRs Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $20
    • Element Solutions (ESI) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $24
    • Freeport (FCX) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $40
    • Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $137
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $20
    • Osisko Gold Royalties (OR CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Peloton (PTON) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $6.60
    • Royal Gold (RGLD) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $189
    • Theratechnologies (TH CN) Raised to Buy at Jones; PT C$4.17
    • Torex Gold Resources (TXG CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$58
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $75
    • YPF (YPFD AR) ADRs Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $33
  • Downgrades
    • Adaptimmune (ADAP) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jones
    • ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Cut to Underperform at GF Securities; PT $582
    • Automotive Properties (APR-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Boardwalk REIT (BEI-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$72
    • Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $31
    • Cricut (CRCT) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $4
    • Flywire (FLYW) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $9
    • Full Truck Alliance (YMM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $10
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $235
    • Hyatt (H) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $110
    • Icon (ICLR) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $157
    • InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$13
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $245
    • Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $328
    • Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Rallybio (RLYB) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • RioCan REIT (REI-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$18
    • TPG (TPG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $47
    • Wayfair (W) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $25
  • Initiations
    • Almonty Industries (AII CN) Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT C$4.25
    • Ametek (AME) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $170
    • Dover (DOV) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $185
    • Establishment Labs (ESTA) Rated New Hold at Needham
    • Finwise (FINW) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $19
    • Galaxy Digital (GLXY CN) Reinstated Buy at BTIG; PT C$30
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • Hut 8 Corp (HUT CN) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $18
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Rated New Hold at KGI Securities; PT $260
    • Millrose Properties (MRP) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $30
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
    • Watsco (WSO) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $515

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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