Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Retail Sales Advance, New York Fed Services Business Activity; 9:15ET Industrial
Production, Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Production; 9:45ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision; 10:00ET Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index; 12:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 1:00ET 20-year bond auction; 1:30ET Fed’s Powell speaks; 4:00ET TIC Flows;
7:00ET Fed’s Schmid speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Japan/US hold trade negotiations today
  
• China Ready to Talk If Trump Shows Respect
  
• Russia Asks to Buy Boeing Jets with Frozen Assets in US Talks
• CALIFORNIA’S NEWSOM SAYS STATE TO SUE OVER TRUMP’S TARIFFS
• Ukraine’s Deputy PM: Minerals Deal Talks with US See Substantial Progress; Will Sign Letter of Intent
• Spot gold jumps over $70 to another record
  

World stocks fell as the US issued new export licensing requirements for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 artificial intelligence chips to China. Trump posted on social
media that Japan is coming in today to negotiate Tariffs, the cost of military support, and “TRADE FAIRNESS.” I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury & Commerce Secretaries.  China is open to talks with the US if Washington can fulfill conditions including
showing more respect and holding a consistent position, sources said. Trump plans to extract commitments from US trading partners to isolate China’s economy, in exchange for tariff relief, the WSJ reported. China’s economy showed surprising strength in early
2025, with GDP growing 5.4% in the first quarter, driven by consumer subsidies and a rush of export shipments to beat tariffs. UK inflation rose less than forecast in March. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady today.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower but have trimmed some losses seen after headwinds from ASML and Nvidia. Nasdaq 100 contracts underperform after Trump barred Nvidia from selling its H20 chips
in China, prompting a warning from the company that it may report $5.5 billion in write-downs. ASML’s first-quarter bookings missed estimates, and the CEO warned of tariff uncertainty. Tesla halted plans to ship parts for its Cybercab and Semi vehicles from
China; that may disrupt mass production of the models. Another potential market catalyst awaits with the March retail sales report. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 1.2% increase on the month, up from a 0.2% climb in February. Focus will turn to
Fed Chair Powell’s speech later in the day.      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -1.4%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.1%. E-Mini S&P holding below the March 13 low as the 50dma crosses the 200dma.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia is the biggest drag for Magnificent Seven stocks: Nvidia (NVDA) -6.3%, Tesla (TSLA) -2%, Meta (META)-1.9%, Apple (AAPL) -0.8%, Amazon
(AMZN) -1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -2.1% and Microsoft (MSFT) -0.9%. Semiconductor stocks are weighed down after ASML reported quarterly bookings well below estimates. AMD (AMD) -6.8%, Broadcom (AVGO) -3.8%, Micron (MU) -3.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) -3.6%, ASML
ADRs (ASML) -4.5%. United Airlines (UAL) climbs 7% after the carrier Tuesday said it expects an adjusted profit of $11.50 to $13.50 a share if the current environment remains stable. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) drops 8% after the broker’s first-quarter earnings
fell short of expectations. JB Hunt (JBHT) falls 6% after the trucker reported revenue in multiple segments that fell short of consensus estimates. MP Materials (MP) rises 2.9% and TMC the Metals Co. (TMC) gains 3% after President Trump launched a probe into
the need for tariffs on critical minerals. Omnicom (OMC) slips 2.4% after the advertising company reported quarterly revenue that came in slightly under expectations. REV Group (REVG) falls 3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the manufacturer of specialty vehicles
on tariff risk.

European gauges trim early losses after after China expressed openness to trade talks with the US under the condition the US shows a more consistent position and reins
in disparaging remarks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index pares its decline in half after earlier dropping 1.4% due to the US barring Nvidia from selling its H20 chip in China. The tech sector leads losses while utilities, food & bev and telecom outperform. Shares
in London outperform after data showed UK inflation slowed for a second straight month to 2.6% in March, below estimates. ASML Holding NV fell as much as 7.6% after orders for the first quarter were far lower than expected and the firm warned that it doesn’t
know how to quantify the impact from recent tariff announcements. Heineken NV rose 3.9% after volumes of beer fell less than expected. Stoxx 600 -0.8%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.3%.  Technology -2.4%, Financial Services -1.8%, Media -1.6%. Utilities
+0.8%, Food & Bev +0.7%, Telecom +0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, driven by technology shares following new restrictions on exports of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined
0.9% on worries around escalation of US-China tensions. Japanese chip-related shares tumbled after disappointing results from Dutch chip-equipment maker ASML and a US probe into the need for levies on critical minerals. Chinese onshore shares eked out small
gains. China’s GDP grew more than estimated in the first quarter, although economists expect the economy to deteriorate starting from April due to the impact of US tariffs. The government is considering various stimulus options, including interest rate cuts,
fiscal borrowing, and targeted support for exporters, ahead of a key meeting in late April. Hang Seng Tech -3.7%, Taiwan -2%, Hang Seng Index -1.9%, Vietnam -1.4%, Kospi -1.2%, Nikkei 225 -1%, Philippines -0.8%, Indonesia -0.6%, ASX 200 -0.05%. CSI 300 +0.3%,
Sensex +0.4%, Thailand +0.9%, Singapore +1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed, with outperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities as traders await a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. US two-year yields
drop 3.5 bps to 3.815%; 10-year yield is less than 1bp lower around 4.33%. Treasury yields pivot around a little-changed 10-year sector with longer-dated tenors marginally cheaper, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by about 3bps. Treasury auctions resume with
$13 billion 20-year bond second reopening. IG dollar new-issue slate empty so far; Citigroup and Bank of America are candidates to sell bonds after reporting quarterly results on Tuesday; Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have already
combined to raise $28 billion.

METALS: 

Gold surged to a fresh high due to haven demand, surpassing $3,300 an ounce for the first time, as the dollar fell. The precious metal has climbed 26% this year amid
anxiety over a possible global recession and unpredictability of tariff announcements. Leading banks remain optimistic about bullion’s prospects, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices to rally to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. Spot gold +2.3%, Silver +2%, Copper
-0.8%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose after China expressed openness to trade talks with the US. Beijing wants the US to appoint a point person for discussions who has the president’s
support and can help prepare a deal the two nations can sign when they meet. US fuel inventories slumped, with distillate stockpiles falling by 3.2 million barrels last week, API data showed. That would take total holdings to the lowest since November 2023
if confirmed by the EIA today. OPEC+ members will have to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.573 million barrels a day, according to a table on OPEC’s website. The compensation cuts could offset much of the production increases
planned through to the second half of 2026, but there is no certainty member states will stick to their schedules. South Bow said the Keystone Pipeline System has restarted under the terms of a Corrective Action Order that will see it use reduced operating
pressures, the company said in a statement. WTI +0.9%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas -1.5%, RBOB +1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, risk aversion weighed on the dollar and boosted demand for long-volatility trades amid signs that the Trump administration’s tariff policy is
eroding investor confidence in the world’s reserve currency. The dollar pared some losses after China said it wants to see a number of steps from US before it will agree to trade talks. The Swiss franc outperforms on haven demand although has pared gains amid
the bounce in stocks. Options traders aren’t betting on calm anytime soon as vol of vol in G-10 remains elevated, with euro risk reversals signaling deeper structural shifts in haven dynamics. US$ Index -0.6%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.7%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD
+0.5%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF -0.85%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -0.5%.

Bitcoin ~flat, Ethereum -0.6% 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Boston Scientific (BSX) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $113
• Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $283
• Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $135
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$23
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $39
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $18
• Lockheed (LMT) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $575
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $111
• Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT $259
• United Rentals (URI) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $702
• Watts Water (WTS) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $229
• Zurn Elkay Water (ZWS) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $34
• Downgrades
• AGCO (AGCO) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75
• Ecolab (ECL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $230
• EPAM Systems (EPAM) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $170
• General Dynamics (GD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $305
• Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $9
• Noah Holdings (NOAH) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Nvidia (NVDA) Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
• Paccar (PCAR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $96
• REV Group (REVG) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $33
• Suncor (SU CN) Cut to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$47
• Target (TGT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $101
• United Airlines (UAL) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• US Steel (X) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $38
• Initiations
• ADENTRA Inc (ADEN CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$46
• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$181
• Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $19
• Ascendis Pharma (ASND) ADRs Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $205
• Atlas Engineered Products Ltd (AEP CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins
• Barrick Gold (ABX CN) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT C$30
• Bowhead Specialty (BOW) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $44
• Brown & Brown (BRO) Rated New Buy at Edward Jones
• CG Oncology (CGON) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $23
• Cintas (CTAS) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Crescent Energy Co (CRGY) Rated New Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $14.50
• ERO Copper (ERO CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$21
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$23
• Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$260
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$12
• Iamgold (IMG CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$12
• Kairos Pharma (KAPA) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
• Kinross Gold (K CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$22
• Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $25
• MAC Copper Ltd (MTAL) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $11
• Newmont Corp (NEM) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $63
• Nexa (NEXA) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $6
• Pan American Silver (PAAS CN) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT C$38
• Paylocity (PCTY) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $190
• Protara Therapeutics Inc (TARA) US Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $12
• Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $125
• Royal Gold (RGLD) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $196
• Select Medical (SEM) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $25
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$56
• UroGen Pharma (URGN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $23
• V2X Inc (VVX) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $51
• Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$129

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke