Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 23, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 9:30ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 9:35ET Fed’s Waller speaks;
9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI; 10:00ET Bessent speaks on State of Financial System, New Home Sales;  1:00ET 5-Year Auction; 2:00ET Fed’s Beige Book; 2:35ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 6:30ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 7:00ET
Fed’s Kugler speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump says China tariffs will fall substantially after a deal
  • Trump Says He Has No Intention of Firing Fed Chief Powell
  • China signals openness to US trade talks but warns against continued threats
  • The US has issued a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a path forward to a peace deal
  • IMF slashes global outlook as White House says trade talks pick up pace

 

World stocks gained as investors found relief from President Trump saying he had no plans to fire the head of the Federal Reserve and hinting at lower tariffs for
China. Trump said he plans to be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. There remains no public indication that talks between the world’s largest economies are taking place, even at lower levels.
China signaled openness to trade talks but warned it won’t negotiate under threats. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “We don’t want a trade war, but we’re not afraid of one.” Private-sector activity in the euro area barely grew in April as tariff
uncertainty sent confidence in the services industry to a nearly five-year low. The deterioration was largely due to Germany, whose main PMI gauge unexpectedly showed the private sector slipped back into contraction. 

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures surged after Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest
rates. The US wants the UK to lower levies and other non-tariff barriers on a variety of US goods, including a reduction in its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, the WSJ reported. Tesla shares climbed premarket despite an earnings miss after Elon Musk pledged
to retreat “significantly” from his government work starting next month. Intel shares plunged after a report on planned job cuts of more than 20% of its staff.        

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +2.3%, Nasdaq +3%, Russell 2000 +2.7%, DJI +1.9%

In pre-market trading, Tesla leads the Magnificent Seven stocks higher as CEO Elon Musk pledged to pull back from his work with the US government to concentrate on
the electric-vehicle company. Tesla (TSLA) +7%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +2.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +5.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +4%, Apple (AAPL) +3.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) +2.6%, Meta (META) +4.9%. Semiconductors: SMCI (SMCI) +7%, Nvidia (NVDA) +5.4%, Dell (DELL) +5.4%. Apple suppliers:
Qualcomm (QCOM) +2.4%, Broadcom (AVGO) +4.9%, Cirrus Logic (CRUS) +4.3%. Crypto-linked stocks: Robinhood (HOOD) +8.4%, Coinbase (COIN) +4.2%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) +3.4%. Amphenol (APH) rises 11% after the maker of high-speed cable and connectors forecast sales
for the second quarter that beat estimates. AT&T (T) gains 2% after adding 324,000 mobile-phone customers in the first quarter, beating estimates. Avery Dennison (AVY) falls 3% after the maker of RFID sensors for grocery stores posted quarterly results. Boeing
Co. (BA) climbs 4% as first-quarter results exceeded Wall Street’s estimates. Boston Scientific (BSX) rises 8% after the medical device firm boosted its net sales and adjusted profit forecast for the full year. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) falls 3% after the
company’s treatment for schizophrenia failed in a study. Intel Corp. (INTC) rises 5% as the company is poised to announce plans this week to cut more than 20% of its staff. Novavax (NVAX) rises 12% after the company said its Biologics License Application for
its COVID-19 vaccine remains approvable based on conversations with the FDA. Pegasystems (PEGA) soars 28% after the customer relationship management software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) advances 18%
after the company boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.

European gauges gained as investors hoped for trade negotiations between China and the US. The Stoxx 600 rises nearly 2%, led by gains in mining and technology shares.
SAP soared as much as 11% after the German software firm reported profit that topped estimates, fueled by its pivot to cloud services. Shares of BE Semiconductor Industries rose over 10% after the Dutch chip equipment maker reported first-quarter order growth,
driven by rising demand for AI-related data center applications. Reckitt fell more than 6% after the maker of Lysol cleaning products missed growth estimates. BP gained 5% after activist hedge fund Elliott increased stake in the oil major to just over 5%.
European defense shares fell on a report that Russian President Putin has offered to halt his country’s invasion of Ukraine across the current front line. Stoxx 600 +1.5%, DAX +2.3%, CAC +1.9%, FTSE 100 +1.1%. Technology +4.1%, Basic Resources +3.7%, Banks
+2.7%. Utilities -2%, Real Estate -0.7%.

Shares in Asia rallied on optimism that tensions with the US may soften. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.8% with Taiwan leading gains in the region. Trump’s unpredictable
policy shifts and China President Xi Jinping’s resolute stance in the tariff war will likely keep investors on guard. Investors are also closely watching US trade negotiations with India and Japan. Meanwhile, Japan’s factory activity shrank for the tenth consecutive
month in April while service sector activity returned to growth. Shares of major Chinese drug contract manufacturers gained as Morgan Stanley says the sector’s direct tariff exposure is no more than 10%. Chinese e-commerce firms rose following a report that
they’re looking to roll back a controversial policy that allows consumers to apply refunds without returning their orders. Taiwan +4.5%, Hang Seng Index +2.4%, Topix +2%, Kospi +1.6%, Indonesia +1.5%, ASX 200 +1.3%, Vietnam +1.2%, Singapore +1%, Sensex +0.6%,
CSI 300 +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Long-end Treasury yields are extending steep declines with 30-year yields falling 14bps to 4.73% while two-year yields inch lower by 1.5 bps to 3.80%, as traders
see a lower chance of any immediate rate cuts. Yield curve spreads are dramatically flatter, with 2s10s -10bps. 10-year yield is down 12bps around 4.29%. Treasury auction cycle continues with $70 billion 5-year notes sale after Tuesday’s 2-year tailed by 0.6bp.

 

METALS: 

Safe-haven gold ran into profit-taking and slipped as much as 2% to below $3,300 an ounce. The decline accelerated as risk sentiment improved on the back of President
Trump’s announcement that he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and renewed optimism over a China-US trade deal. JP Morgan said it expects to see gold prices crossing the $4,000-per-ounce milestone next year and predicted greater headwinds
for silver in the near-term given industrial demand uncertainty.  Spot gold -1.6%, Silver +1.2%, Copper +0.6%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices erased early gains made after Trump floated substantial cuts to tariffs on China. Meanwhile, India and Saudi Arabia agreed to deepen energy ties. The EU
is said to be considering a ban on spot purchases of Russian natural gas as part of a plan to phase out imports. US crude inventories fell by 4.57 million barrels last week, API data showed. That would be the biggest drop since late November if confirmed by
the EIA today. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas +0.1%, RBOB -0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar jumped after Trump walked back his threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although most of those gains faded as trading began
in Europe. The Aussie$ leads gains on optimism that trade tensions with China could cool in the coming months. The euro eased after data showed private-sector activity in the euro area barely grew in April amid tariff uncertainty. In the UK, private sector
suffered its biggest contraction in more than two years.  US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD +0.7%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDNOK +0.1%, USDMXN -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2.7%, Ethereum +6.5%.  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • American Express (AXP) Raised to Neutral at Redburn; PT $255
    • Apollo Commercial (ARI) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $11
    • ATI Inc (ATI) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $55
    • BlackLine Inc (BL) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $46
    • Capital Power (CPX CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$64
    • Cava Group (CAVA) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $115
    • Dogwood Therapeutics (DWTX) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
    • Fidelity National (FIS) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $94
    • Intuit (INTU) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $699
    • Lithia & Driveway (LAD) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $375
    • Lockheed (LMT) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $540
    • Loma Negra (LOMA AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $14
    • Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • RTX Corp (RTX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $135
    • Toast (TOST) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $44
    • Valmont (VMI) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
  • Downgrades
    • Chevron (CVX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
      • Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $124
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $36
    • Flywire (FLYW) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Global Payments (GPN) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Halliburton (HAL) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $23
    • JD.com (JD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $35
    • LifeSpeak (LSPK CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT 32 Canadian cents
    • Lithium Argentina AG (LAR CN) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT C$3.18
    • Melco Resorts (MLCO) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at CICC; PT $5.80
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
    • Oracle (ORCL) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $130
    • SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Sunrun (RUN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $164
  • Initiations
    • Adtalem (ATGE) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $135
    • Campbell’s (CPB) Rated New Sell at UBS
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) Rated New Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
    • Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $252
    • Duolingo (DUOL) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $435
    • Foghorn Therapeutics (FHTX) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Goldshore Resources (GSHR CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$1.20
    • Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $6
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $55
    • Okta (OKTA) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $119
    • PayPal (PYPL) Reinstated Sell at Compass Point; PT $56
    • Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $32
    • SentinelOne (S) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $26
    • Tencent Music (TME) ADRs Rated New Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT $15
    • Tourmaline Bio Inc (TRML) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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