Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders, Cap
Goods, Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Existing Home Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Mfg Activity; 1:00ET -Year Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Chicago Cubs first team in MLB history to have at least 35 HRs and 35 stolen bases through 25 games
• China to allow overseas investors access to more sectors
• China Says It’s Not in Levy Talks With US

Global stocks were lower, fluctuating as investors tempered hopes for a swift resolution in the US-China tariff conflict. Beijing announced that the two sides aren’t
in talks, following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement on Wednesday that there was no unilateral offer from Trump to reduce tariffs and emphasizing a long timeline for trade rebalancing. A Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman said, “any reports
on development in talks are groundless,” and urged the US to “show sincerity” if it wants to make a deal. Investors are advised to consider adding Chinese, Indian, and European assets to re-balance their portfolios, as the US stock market value has reached
its peak and further corrections in equities, Treasury bonds, and the dollar are likely, according to the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies Financial Group. Additionally, the German Ifo index showed a surprise improvement in business morale for April,
a day after disappointing PMI readings for the euro zone and Britain.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures edged lower, fluctuating after back-to-back gains as investors scaled back their expectations for quick progress in the US-China trade dispute.
Deutsche Bank strategists reduced their year-end S&P 500 target by 12%, citing the impact of tariffs on US companies and predicting that the index will only recover losses sustained since its February peak. Meanwhile, earnings reports drove market movements:
IBM shares fell 8% in premarket trading after disappointing results, while Unilever rallied on better-than-expected sales. BNP Paribas declined as profits dropped.

In premarket trading, Alaska Air tumbled 6.5% after a disappointing Q2 earnings forecast, and Chipotle fell 3.6% due to a lowered outlook following declining quarterly
sales. Comcast dropped 3% after reporting higher-than-expected losses in pay-TV and broadband customers, and IBM dropped 6.8% after its 1Q results underperformed expectations. In contrast, Edwards Lifesciences gained 3%, Hasbro rose 6%, and Texas Instruments
surged 9% following strong earnings reports. ServiceNow also posted strong results, jumping 8%, while Southwest Airlines fell 4% amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Other notable movements included Impinj, which surged 17% after exceeding earnings forecasts, and
Robert Half, which sank 15% after its earnings missed expectations.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.18%, Nasdaq flat, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.4%

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S Treasuries held onto modest curve-steepening gains Thursday, following a similar move in German bunds after ECB policymaker Olli Rehn signaled the possibility of a larger-than-expected
rate cut. The U.S. 10-year yield dipped to 4.35%, while the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads widened slightly. A $44 billion 7-year note auction caps the week’s supply, with yields about 6bp lower than last month’s sale.  

METALS: 

Gold prices rebounded on Thursday amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The IMF downgraded its U.S. and global growth forecasts, citing Trump’s tariff policy, which could further boost
gold as a safe-haven asset. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent countered the IMF’s outlook, predicting stronger U.S. growth if Trump’s policies are implemented, while also calling for a reduction in high tariffs between the U.S. and China. Spot gold +1.5%,
Silver -0.5%, Copper +0.7%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices recovered as investors assessed the potential impact of increased OPEC+ supply and ongoing US-China trade tensions. Disputes over quota compliance within
OPEC+ have raised the likelihood of additional supply increases in June, fueling concerns about faster-than-expected output growth. U.S. crude inventories rose by 244,000 barrels last week, defying expectations of a larger drawdown. While there are signs of
easing tensions between the U.S. and China, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that the U.S. would not unilaterally reduce tariffs, adding continued uncertainty to the global energy demand outlook. WTI +1.3%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB +0.6%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar weakened as unpredictable White House policy moves boosted demand for the Swiss franc. President Trump softened his stance on firing the Federal Reserve
chair and signaled openness to negotiations with China, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that the U.S. has no specific currency target and would not unilaterally cut tariffs. The euro, yen, and Swiss franc, among other major currencies, strengthened,
reflecting investors’ sensitivity to shifting trade headlines and renewed confidence in the Fed’s independence. The U.S. dollar has much further to fall, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said.US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD +0.6%, USDJPY -0.6%,
AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF -0.6%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.9%, USDNOK -1.1%, USDMXN -0.1%.

Bitcoin -1.3%, Ethereum -2.6%.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Cadence Design (CDNS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $325
• Edwards Life (EW) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $80
• GE Aerospace (GE) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management
• Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $17.50
• Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Raised to Buy at Argus
• Lennox (LII) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $600
• M&T Bank (MTB) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $210
• Mullen Group (MTL CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$16.75
• ServiceNow (NOW) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $77
• Stifel Financial (SF) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $108
• TE Connectivity (TEL) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $175
• Utz Brands (UTZ) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson
• Downgrades
• Amerant Bancorp (AMTB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Avery Dennison (AVY) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $172
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $68
• ON Semi (ON) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $41
• Orion SA (OEC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Hold at Summit Insights
• Weatherford (WFRD) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $69
• Initiations
• A10 Networks (ATEN) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Adient (ADNT) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $14
• Asbury Auto (ABG) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $236
• AutoNation (AN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $208
• Boston Scientific (BSX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Cooper-Standard (CPS) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $12
• Defi Technologies Inc (DEFI CN) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT C$6.92
• Ford (F) Reinstated Neutral at Citi; PT $10
• General Motors (GM) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $62
• Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $463
• HealWELL AI (AIDX CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$2.50
• Kraken Sonar (PNG CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$3
• Lear (LEA) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $123
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $31
• Penske Automotive (PAG) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $185
• Pharvaris (PHVS) Rated New Buy at KBC Securities; PT $32
• Sonic Automotive (SAH) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $64
• Southern Cross Gold Cons (SXGC CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada
• Torex Gold Resources (TXG CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$60

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG