Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on April 28, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:30ET Dallas Fed Manf. Activity;
Canadian Federal Election Today

Highlights and News:  

  • US and UKRAINE MAY REACH MINERALS FRAMEWORK DEAL THIS WEEK: FT
  • Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy: Atlantic
  • Trump Floats New Income Tax Cut in Bid to Ease Tariffs Bite
  • CHINA: WE ARE NOT ENGAGED WITH TRADE TALKS WITH THE US
  • South Korea, Japan, and India are leading the way in trade negotiations
  • Spain Hit by Major Blackout, Knocking Out Electricity, Internet and Mobile Service

 

Global stocks edged higher, holding at their best levels in over three weeks, reflecting some hopes that the worst of tariff pain is over. MSCI’s world stock index
hovered near its highest levels since April 3, the day after Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs. This will be an earnings-heavy week that also sees the release of key US jobs data and elections in Canada and Australia. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent declined to support Trump’s claim that tariff negotiations with China were under way. The US is negotiating with 18 important trading partners with Bessent saying that some talks, especially with Asian countries, are moving along very well. Ukrainian
President Zelenskiy said he’s hopeful for a “reliable and lasting peace” after meeting one-on-one with Trump at the Vatican.  President Trump later questioned whether Russia’s Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to end the war in Ukraine. Putin later declared a
new temporary ceasefire from May 8-10.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slightly lower, with no major tariff developments over the weekend, as investors braced for a week packed with key economic data and earnings from some of Wall Street’s
biggest companies. Mag Sevens, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms all report quarterly results this week. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Sunday that some tariff negotiations with Asian countries “are moving along very well.” Still, the US and
China appear to be at a standstill. Over the weekend, President Trump suggested that his sweeping tariffs would help him reduce income taxes for people making less than $200,000 a year.  Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson believes the weak dollar will support
US corporate earnings, helping the American stock market outperform the rest of the world. JPMorgan strategists recommend selling any rebounds. Nvidia shares fall over 1% premarket after the Wall Street Journal reported China’s Huawei Technologies is getting
ready to test a new and powerful artificial intelligence processor that the company hopes can replace some Nvidia products. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.25%, DJI -0.1%.  The S&P 500’s recovery month-to-date is one of the best rebounds since 1950 but on track for
its worst run during a president’s first 100 days since Gerald Ford in 1974.

In pre-market trading, Boeing Co. (BA) rises 1.5% as Airbus SE agreed to take over some assets and sites from Spirit AeroSystems, clearing the way for Spirit to be
acquired by Boeing. CG Oncology (CGON) soars 40% after presenting data on cretostimogene grenadenorepvec monotherapy data at the American Urological Association annual meeting. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) slips 1.6% after HSBC double downgraded the stock to reduce
— a sell-equivalent rating — from buy, saying the drugmaker’s risk-reward “is not attractive.” Peloton Interactive (PTON) gains 6% after Truist Securities upgraded the fitness company to buy. Revolution Medicines (RVMD) climbs 5% after presenting initial data
from a Zoldonrasib study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

Consumer Staples underperformed Discretionary by ~10% last week.

European gauges pull back from early gains as a massive blackout hit Spain and Portugal, disrupting critical infrastructure. Major cities like Madrid, Barcelona, Seville,
Lisbon, and Porto were affected knocking out electricity across both countries entirely. Internet and mobile service are reportedly down as well. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is holding gains for a fifth session in the longest winning streak since January. Bank
shares are among the best performers, lifted by Banca Generali SpA, which jumped as much as 9.7% after Mediobanca SpA launched a surprise €6.3 billion offer for the wealth manager. Merck KGaA gained over 2% after agreeing to buy SpringWorks Therapeutics to
boost its health-care division. In London, Deliveroo soared 18% after DoorDash offered to acquire the food delivery firm for $3.6 billion.  Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Travel & Leisure +1.2%, Banks +0.1%, Personal Goods +0.8%, Food
& Bev +0.7%. Insurance -0.2%, Real Estate -0.4%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher as focus shifted to a slew of major earnings from the region, while signs that trade tensions may have peaked for now helped sentiment.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6%, adding to last week’s 2.2% advance. Japanese benchmarks outperformed following a report on Toyota Motor Corp. chairman’s proposal to buy out Toyota Industries. Indian shares resumed their climb amid foreign inflows,
while Chinese stocks were range-bound. Policymakers in Beijing announced policies to support exporters affected by US tariffs, including loan assistance and domestic consumption boosts. The Chinese Foreign Ministry again denied the world’s two largest economies
were discussing tariffs. New Zealand +2%, Sensex +1.3%, Topix +0.9%, Taiwan +0.8%, Indonesia +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Kospi +0.1%. Hang Seng Index -0.05%, CSI 300 -0.1%, Vietnam -0.2%, Philippines -0.3%, Singapore -0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields rose across the curve as investors digest news around US trade talks with Asian partners. US yields are cheaper by 2bp to 5bp across the curve, with
intermediates underperforming slightly, flattening 5s30s spread by ~1.5bp on the day. 10-year yield gains 4bps to 4.28%; 2s10s curve +1.5bps.  IG dollar new-issue slate includes a couple of names. Dealers project around $35 billion of high-grade issuance this
week.

 

METALS: 

Gold dropped as much as 1.6% as traders unwound positions on signs the metal’s advance may have run too far and too fast.  Hedge funds have cut their net long futures
and options positions on gold to the lowest level in more than a year, the latest CFTC data showed. The metal is down about 6% since topping $3,500 an ounce last week. Spot gold -0.7%, Silver -0.2%, Copper -0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices were little changed as traders assessed the latest trade war signals and geopolitical developments in Iran. The market’s next cues could come from major
economic data this week, including US growth and payrolls figures, as well as earnings reports from oil supermajors. Investors will also get a chance to hear views on the global crude market outlook this week, with oil supermajors BP Plc, Shell Plc, Chevron
and Exxon Mobil reporting earnings. Meanwhile, China approved 10 new nuclear reactors and is expected to leapfrog the US to become the world’s largest atomic energy generator by the end of the decade. WTI -0.15%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas -1.2%, RBOB -0.2%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar struggled for direction and is mixed versus major peers as traders awaited signs of progress in trade negotiations. Morgan Stanley
and BofA said more clients are buying currency hedges against dollar declines. The euro eased slightly after Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB has room to lower borrowing costs. Trading was rather quiet ahead of Golden Week
holiday in Japan starting tomorrow and ending May 6th.  US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDNOK +0.2%, USDMXN +0.1%, USDCAD +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum +0.5%.  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aon PLC (AON) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Boeing (BA) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $218
    • Cognex (CGNX) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $35
    • Jack in the Box (JACK) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $32
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) Raised to Buy at Fermium Research; PT $70
    • On Holding (ONON) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $60
    • Peloton (PTON) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $11
    • Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $14
    • Saia (SAIA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $250
    • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $43
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $127
    • Zscaler (ZS) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $260
  • Downgrades
    • Adecoagro (AGRO) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $164
    • Avantor (AVTR) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $15.50
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
      • Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $14
    • Biogen (BIIB) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $118
    • Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Sell at Compass Point
    • Conmed (CNMD) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $55
    • Custom Truck (CTOS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $5
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $76
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $700
    • Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $4
    • Golden Ocean (GOGL) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $8.55
    • Lightspeed Commerce Inc (LSPD CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Roche (ROG SW) ADRs Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $45
  • Initiations
    • Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $7
    • American Healthcare REIT (AHR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $37
    • ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Haitong Intl; PT $713
    • Brunswick (BC) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $70
    • CAAP (CAAP) Rated New Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $20.40
    • Carter’s (CRI) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $25
    • Celldex (CLDX) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $64
    • Coca-Cola Andina (ANDINAA CI) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Grupo Santander
    • Columbia Sports (COLM) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $64
    • Compass (COMP) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $8
    • Corpay (CPAY) Rated New Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Editas (EDIT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT C$70.72
    • InvenTrust Properties (IVT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $31
    • Kohl’s (KSS) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $4
    • Liberty Formula One (FWONA) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $115
    • Live Nation (LYV) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $155
    • Macy’s (M) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $12
    • Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) US Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $39
    • Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna
    • Merus NV (MRUS) Rated New Buy at KBC Securities; PT $59
    • NextEra Energy (NEE) Rated New Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $77.46
    • Smartstop Self Storage REIT (STSFF) SMA US Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $36
      • Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
      • Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $38
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $40
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $40
      • Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $37
    • TKO (TKO) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $180
    • Verona Pharma (VRP LN) ADRs Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $100
    • VinFast Auto (VFS) Reinstated Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $5.50
    • Zillow (ZG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $62

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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