Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET March JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Expected to Offer Auto Tariff Reprieve
• CHINA: US SHOULD SEEK DIALOGUE WITH CHINA ON TARIFFS
• Liberals Score Narrow Win in Canada Election
• Bessent set a July 4 goal to pass Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax cut package
• The Cavaliers crushed the Miami Heat, sealing the most lopsided series win in NBA playoff history

Global stocks inched up after the Trump administration said imported autos would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. The US announced
plans to lessen the impact of tariffs on foreign parts used in domestically produced cars and prevent tariffs on imported vehicles from stacking up on other duties. China’s Ministry of Commerce said the country is willing to support normal cooperation with
US companies, hoping the US can create a stable and predictable environment for normal trade and investment activities, according to today’s statement. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested banning certain exports to China to gain leverage.
Apple and Amazon.com results are among the key events to watch this week, along with a Bank of Japan rate decision.  Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth straight election, while PM Mark Carney vowed to win the trade war with the US and strengthen alliances
with other countries.

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures are mixed after swinging between gains and losses as the Trump administration signaled easing tariffs on the auto sector and investors awaited key earnings and economic
data for more direction. General Motors is pulling earnings guidance for 2025 and putting $4 billion in share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs. UPS also halted its full-year guidance and will cut 20,000 positions due to
Amazon downsizing. So far, just over a third of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, and of those, 75% have beat estimates. The consequences of Trump’s tariff agenda should become even clearer this week, with a raft of data due on American jobs,
inflation and economic growth.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.25%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI +0.3%. 

In pre-market trading, General Motors (GM) shares fall 2.4% after the automaker withdrew 2025 earnings guidance and paused $4 billion in share repurchases. Crown Holdings
(CCK) rose over 3% after the beverage can maker reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares gain 30% as it’s among companies Novo Nordisk A/S is partnering with to offer its popular weight-loss drug
Wegovy to more US patients at a reduced price. Honeywell International (HON) gains 4% after the company raised its full-year guidance. PayPal (PYPL) shares are down 2.5% after the company reported fewer payment transactions in the first quarter than analysts
expected. Okta (OKTA) rose 4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock will replace Berry Global in the S&P MidCap 400 before trading opens May 1. Regeneron (REGN) fell 7.5% after the drugmaker reported profit and sales for the first quarter fell
short of expectations. Ultra Clean (UCTT) shares are down 10% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that missed expectations. UPS (UPS) shares are up 1% after beating estimates. Waste Management (WM) fell ~2% after the
firm’s first-quarter update missed revenue expectations. Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares are up 10% as the chipmaker is set for its sixth session of straight gains.

European gauges are mostly higher as investors braced for a busy day of earnings and hoped for further tariff exemptions. Spain’s consumer-led economy posted another
strong quarter of expansion, but a massive blackout this week is likely to take a toll on growth. UK food prices rose 0.7% this month, the biggest gain since January 2024 after supermarkets were hit by a double whammy of tax increases and a jump in the national
minimum wage, a survey found.  Deutsche Bank shares rise over 4% after its trading unit hit a record and posted a 39% rise in first-quarter profit. HSBC climbs after announcing a fresh share buyback. BP shares fall after the oil major cut its buyback as profit
missed forecasts. Porsche fell over 6% after the German luxury sports car maker slashed a series of forecasts for 2025. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.6%, CAC -0.15%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Aero & Defense +1.6%, Basic Resources +1.3%, Chemicals +1.1%, Healthcare +1%. Energy
-0.6%.

Shares in Asia rose as sentiment got a boost from further signs of the US dialing down its trade rhetoric. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with Meituan providing
the biggest boost to the gauge, while India’s Reliance Industries extended its rally triggered by better-than-expected earnings. India plans to highlight its large pipeline of Boeing orders and potential for more to secure a favorable trade deal with the US.
South Korean auto-related stocks advanced as President Trump is expected to soften the blow of his auto tariffs. Chinese electric vehicle makers Li Auto and Nio jumped with investor sentiment boosted by the duo’s weekly order strength ahead of the country’s
May holiday season.  Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Thailand +1%, Taiwan +1%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Kospi +0.6%, Indonesia +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.15%, Sensex +0.1%. Vietnam -0.05%, CSI 300 =0.2%, Singapore -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries drift lower into early US session, unwinding a portion of Monday’s gains. US Treasury market was closed during the APAC session due the start of Golden
Week in Japan. US yields are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 2s10s steeper by ~1bp on the day; US 10-year yields trade back up to around 4.225%.

METALS: 

Gold fell as signs of easing tensions in the US-China trade dispute pressured the safe-haven metal, with investors awaiting key US economic data this week for insights
into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Attention turns to the US gross domestic product data and the core personal consumption expenditures report, which are both due out on Wednesday. Spot gold -1%, Silver +0.3%, Copper +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil fell amid concerns that the US-led trade war will hurt energy demand. Indian refiners are ramping up US oil purchases ahead of trade talks. Around 11.2 million
barrels of crude are set to arrive in India in June, the highest since last August, Kpler said. Russia’s oil exports edged higher for a second week, with almost half of the tankers sanctioned in previous years now back hauling Russian barrels. The oil market
is in rare territory right now, with futures pricing indicating near-term tightness and a “meaningful surplus” further out, according to Morgan Stanley. It expects Brent to drop to low $60s-a-barrel later this year.  WTI -1.7%, Brent -1.7%, US Nat Gas +1.3%,
RBOB -0.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the loonie dipped against a broadly-firm US dollar as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals retained power in Monday’s election but
fell short of the majority government. The dollar traded higher versus all G-10 currencies and the Swiss franc led losses as risk sentiment got a boost from signs of easing trade tensions. The euro slipped as economic confidence sank more than expected to
the lowest this year, with consumers foreseeing a 1.2% contraction over the next 12 months. Inflation expectations of euro-area consumers approached a one-year high in March, with prices seen rising 2.9% over the next 12 months. Aussie$ and kiwi declined as
China responded to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent by urging countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the “bully.” US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.4%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.45%, AUDUSD -0.5%, NZDUSD -0.45%, USDCHF +0.65%,
USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.65%, USDNOK +0.4%, USDMXN +0.2%.

Bitcoin +0.7%, Ethereum +2.4%.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Arista Networks (ANET) Raised to Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Diamondback (FANG) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $170
• Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
• Upstart (UPST) Raised to Neutral at BofA
• Downgrades
• Amkor Technology (AMKR) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $18
• Avantor (AVTR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $14
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT $125
• Conoco (COP) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $107
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $30
• Icon (ICLR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $150
• Inmode (INMD) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Insulet (PODD) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Lufax (LU) ADRs Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT $2.40
• SpringWorks (SWTX) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $47
• Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $47
• Volaris (VOLARA MM) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $4.50
• ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $4.40
• Initiations
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $44
• Arizona Sonoran Copper (ASCU CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$4.25
• Astria Therapeutics Inc (ATXS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $47
• ATS Corp (ATS CN) Reinstated Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$43
• BioCryst (BCRX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Cadence Design (CDNS) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $312.79
• Faraday Copper (FDY CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$1.25
• InflaRx (IFRX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $10
• Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $74
• Magnite Inc (MGNI) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $18
• Matson (MATX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $125
• Nexxen International Ltd (NEXN) US Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $15
• Pharvaris (PHVS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $28
• Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $480
• Trade Desk (TTD) Reinstated Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $77
• Viant (DSP) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $20
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $104
• Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $10

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke