Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing,
Prices Paid, New Orders, ISM Employment, Construction Spending

Highlights and News:  

• US and Ukraine Sign Resources Deal
• BESSENT: US-UKRAINE DEAL HELPS TRUMP NEGOTIATE WITH RUSSIA
• BESSENT: MEETING WITH JAPAN ON TRADE TODAY
• HASSETT: TARIFF NEWS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE DAY
  
• Tesla Chair Says Report of CEO Search to Replace Musk ‘False’
• EU to Present New Trade Proposals to US Negotiators Next Week
• Markets closed in China, Brazil, Mexico, Australia and much of Europe for holidays

Global stocks edge higher as risk sentiment improved after President Trump said the US had “potential deals” on trade with South Korea, Japan, and India. Trade Representative
Greer also said the US is close to announcing the first tranche of agreements. The US has approached China seeking talks over tariffs, Chinese state media said on Thursday, potentially signaling Beijing’s openness to negotiations. The European Union is planning
to present a paper with the US next week that will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, and cooperating on global challenges. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast for this fiscal
year in half to 0.5%, signaling increased caution. The US and Ukraine reached a deal granting the US privileged access to new investment projects to develop Ukraine’s natural resources, including aluminum, graphite, oil, and natural gas. The agreement will
create a fund to attract global investment into Ukraine, with the US getting first claim on profits.  May Day public holidays around the world, including much of Europe, meant trading was thin.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rallied on stronger-than-expected earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff
threats. The White House said it was nearing an announcement of a first tranche of trade deals with partners that would reduce planned tariffs. Sentiment was also boosted by a report that the US has been proactively reaching out to China through various channels.
At the same time, Trump said he would not rush deals to appease nervous investors. Traders also increased bets on Fed easing later this year after the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022. Jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing survey are
due this morning, although April labor market figures on Friday will be the next piece of hard data markets will use to gauge recession risks. Apple and Amazon post their results later today.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +1.25%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.8%.

In pre-market trading, Microsoft (MSFT) gains 8% after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales and profit growth. Meta (META) jumps 6% after the
company’s advertising sales quelled Wall Street concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s trade war. Apple (AAPL) falls 1.4% after a federal judge said in a ruling that it violated a court order requiring it to open up the App Store to third-party
payment options. Nvidia (NVDA) +4.6%, Amazon (AMZN) +3.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.7%. Qualcomm (QCOM) falls 5% as the biggest maker of chips that run smartphones gave a tepid revenue prediction for the current quarter. Align Technology (ALGN)
rises 10% after the Invisalign company reported quarterly shipments that beat the average analyst estimate. Confluent Inc. (CFLT) falls 10% after the provider of a streaming platform gave an outlook for second-quarter subscription revenue that fell shy of
expectations. CVS Health (CVS) rises 8% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per-share-guidance for the full year and reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter. E2open (ETWO) shares are up 34% after Wise Tech Global, in response
to media reports about its being in discussions to acquire E2open, said it was participating in a strategic review process. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) drops 5% after the company cut its earnings outlook. Robinhood (HOOD) gains 4% after the trading platform’s earnings
largely beat expectations. Shake Shack (SHAK) falls 3% after posting first-quarter results. Wayfair (W) gains 5% after posting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Most European markets outside of the UK are closed for Labor Day. The FTSE 100 is little changed after its longest gaining streak since 2017, weighed down by disappointing
earnings. Travel & leisure outperforms while energy names lag. Lloyds Banking Group dropped 2.7% after it missed earnings expectations and set aside more to prepare for a worsening economy. The OMX Copenhagen 25 Index gained 1.4%, with Novo Nordisk A/S climbing
5.7% as the pharmaceutical firm said its semaglutide study showed benefits for liver treatment.   CVS’s drug-benefits unit negotiated a deal to make Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy more widely available to its members, a blow for rival Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Stoxx 600
+0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.05%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher although some heavyweights fell amid warnings of tariff impacts on profits. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3%, with Japan’s
Sony and Australia’s BHP among the biggest drags. Japanese stocks extended gains after the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady. New Zealand’s benchmark climbed more than 2%, while Australian shares also closed higher. Most markets were closed for
holidays, including China, Hong Kong, India and Singapore. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this morning that he is meeting with Japan on trade today. New Zealand +2%, Nikkei 225 +1.25%, Topix +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries edge higher, pushing US 10-year yields down 1 bp to 4.15%. Yields lower by 1bp to 2bp across the curve as spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s
close. US session focus includes weekly jobless claims along with both ISM and PMI manufacturing reports. WTI futures continue this week’s slide, adding support into Treasuries.

METALS: 

Gold is under pressure from a stronger US dollar and continued profit taking. Prices have now fallen nearly 8% since setting a fresh record high of $3,509.90/oz on
April 22. Market risk appetite has grown and reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid rising hopes for President Trump’s administration signing trade deals in the near-term. China, currently the largest consumer of gold, has also begun the May Day holiday.
A record amount of silver — more than 58 million troy ounces — is set to be delivered against May futures contracts in New York today. Copper prices rose after a big one-day drop. Market attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Spot gold
-2.5%, Silver -2.5%, Copper +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices decline, with Brent falling over 2% to below $60 a barrel, on signs the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance may be entering a prolonged period of higher output. 
OPEC+ is expected to decide on production levels next week, with some analysts predicting Brent prices could drop to the $50s a barrel or lower if output is increased further. Reuters reported that Saudi officials told allies the kingdom can endure a period
of depressed prices. Analytics firm Kpler has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 640,000 barrels per day from 800,000 bpd, citing the China-US trade war and weak Indian demand. Senator Lindsey Graham said he had the commitment of 72 colleagues
for a bill that would enact “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia, as well as on countries taking its oil, if Putin didn’t engage in serious talks to end the war in Ukraine. WTI -2%, Brent -1.8%, US Nat Gas +2%, RBOB -1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies after the Bank of Japan pushed back the timing for when it expects to reach its inflation target
and slashed its growth forecasts. Still, the BOJ retained its commitment to raising borrowing costs if its economic outlook is realized.  The dollar rose while investors watched for signs of the trade war cooling and awaited US labor market data.  US$ Index
+0.4%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK+0.5 %, USDNOK +0.2%, USDMXN +0.2%.

Bitcoin +1.7%, Ethereum +3%.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Camping World (CWH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $21
• Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $395
• Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $309
• Humana (HUM) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $315
• Lancaster Colony (LANC) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $185
• ServiceNow (NOW) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
• Silgan (SLGN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $57
• Starbucks (SBUX) Raised to Hold at Accountability Research; PT $73
• Trivago (TRVG) ADRs Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $5.50
• Western Digital (WDC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $57
• Downgrades
• Cintas (CTAS) Cut to Sell at Redburn; PT $171
• P&G (PG) Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT $161
• Parsons (PSN) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $69
• Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $7
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $9
• Saia (SAIA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $273
• Snap (SNAP) Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Spotify (SPOT) Cut to Hold at CFRA; PT $610
• UPS (UPS) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $105
• Initiations
• Aligos Therapeutics (ALGS) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• ExlService (EXLS) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• FiscalNote Holdings Inc (NOTE) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• FreightCar America (RAIL) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $9
• Oddity Tech (ODD) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Osisko Metals (OM CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$1

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke