Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Williams speaks, Fed’s Barkin speaks; 9:15ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 10:00ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 11:30ET Fed’s Williams, Waller speak; 7:45ET Fed’s Musalem speaks. Investors are focused on the outcome of the weekend trade talks between China and the US

Highlights and News:  

  • Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar in Asia and Europe
  • Trump Team Seeks Tariff Cuts, De-Escalation, Rare Earths Relief in China Talks
  • Concerns raised over recent land purchases by Chinese companies near US military bases
  • CHINA HOLDS STATE COUNCIL MEETING ON FREE TRADE PILOT ZONES
  • TRUMP: CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA
  • Navarro: EU Very High on the Priority List in Trade Talks: VAT Tax in Europe is the Problem for US
  • US, UK To Promptly Negotiate Preferential Treatment For Pharma

 

Global stocks lingered near a six-week peak as a US-UK trade agreement sparked cautious hope for advancements in tariff negotiations with other nations. MSCI’s broadest
index of world shares gained 0.1% after rising around 0.8% on Thursday. World markets will now turn their attention to trade talks between the US and China this weekend, with the Trump administration weighing a dramatic reduction of tariffs on China to de-escalate
tensions. Even though Trump said negotiations with China would result in tangible progress, Beijing reiterated on Thursday its call for the US to cancel tariffs ahead of talks. China’s exports to the United States fell 21% in April, according to customs data
released today. However, China’s overall exports grew by 8.1% in US dollar terms due to a surge in Chinese exports to countries in Southeast Asia and Europe. Imports from the United States fell almost 14% in the period. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said
that trade deals with South Korea and Japan could take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the UK.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are back in the green ahead of trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies. Futures turned red around 7:30ET after Trump said 80% tariffs on China seems right,
up to Scott Bessent. Investors are now focused on the outcome of the weekend trade talks between China and the US after Trump signaled the negotiations might result in tangible progress. Trump signaled tariffs may fall but a spokesman said talk of “targets”
was speculation. The S&P 500’s 14% rebound since April 9 may be stalling, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who recommends international stocks over US assets. Fund flows showed about $9.3 billion fleeing US stocks in the past week, while $7
billion flowed to international equities, BofA said. Ahead of the bell, Ride-hailing firm Lyft, chipmaker Microchip Technology and software company CloudFlare rose after posting robust results.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) falls 6% after the buy-now-pay-later company gave a revenue forecast for the current quarter with the midpoint trailing
the average analyst estimate. Expedia (EXPE) falls 9% after the travel services company cut its gross bookings growth forecast for 2025. Figs Inc. (FIGS) drops 16% post-market after the seller of medical scrubs reduced its year outlook for adjusted Ebitda
margin. Globus Medical (GMED) drops 14% after the medical device company’s earnings missed estimates. Gogo (GOGO) soars 21% after the in-flight broadband company reaffirmed its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year. Green Dot (GDOT) rises 18% after the
payments company boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. HubSpot (HUBS) declines 4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is weaker than expected. Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) plunges 34% after
the biotech’s first-quarter revenue fell short of estimates and the company cut its full-year forecast. Lyft (LYFT) jumps 11% after reporting better-than-expected gross bookings in the first quarter. Microchip Technology (MCHP) climbs 11% after the chipmaker
reported fourth-quarter results and said the period “marks the bottom of this prolonged industry down cycle.” Pinterest (PINS) climbs 12% after its second-quarter revenue guidance came in ahead of estimates. Trade Desk (TTD) is up 14% after the ad-tech company’s
forecast for second quarter exceeded estimates. Wolfspeed (WOLF) tumbles 19% after posting quarterly results.

Retail traders bought Tesla and Nvidia last week and sold Apple and Microsoft, according to JPM. Retail traders also significantly increased demand for fixed income
ETFs: highest inflows since 2020.

European gauges are higher, with Germany’s DAX Index hitting a record high as tariff tensions eased and ECB policy makers suggested another interest-rate cut may be
in store next month. Governing Council member Simkus said more rate cuts are needed as the euro-area economy is yet to feel the full force of US tariffs and inflation is expected to continue to slow. The Stoxx Europe 600 is up nearly half a percent and on
track for a fourth weekly advance. Autos, energy and banks have topped the Stoxx 600’s small gains this week. Among individual movers, Commerzbank AG rose as much as 3.5% after a rise in first quarter profit. Stoxx 600 +0.45%, DAX +0.6%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100
+0.4%. Energy +2.2%, Basic Resources +1%, Autos +0.8%, Utilities +0.8%. Aero & Defense -0.8%, Insurance -0.5%.

Shares in Asia advanced as optimism rose ahead of official trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.6%, with Taiwan
and Japan leading gains in the region. TSMC, Alibaba and Mitsubishi UFJ were the biggest boosts to the Asia gauge. TSMC’s revenue jumped 48% in April as electronics firms scrambled to acquire essential components before tariffs took effect. Chinese equities
edged lower as investors reassess bets before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meet in Switzerland with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on trade over the weekend. Indian stocks and bonds extended their slide as hostilities
with Pakistan escalated. India said it “neutralized” Pakistani drone and missile attacks targeting several military sites on Thursday night. Pakistan’s government denied it had launched the attacks. Taiwan +1.8%, Nikkei 225 +1.6%, Philippines +1.1%, Singapore
+0.7%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.4%, Indonesia +0.1%. Kospi -0.1%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Vietnam -0.2%, Sensex -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries curve gently twist-steepens, pivoting around a little-changed 7- to 10-year sector in narrow trading ranges as US trading day begins.  The curve steepens
as front-end yields drop and the long end firms, with 30-year yield +3.5bps and 2-year yield down 1bp. 2s10s, 5s30s spreads 2.5bp to 4bp wider on the day. 10-year yield +1.5bps around 4.40%.

 

METALS: 

Gold rose as investor focus turns to the upcoming talks between the US and China this weekend. Spot gold trades around $3,330 per ounce while heading for a weekly
gain of more than 2.5%. The Trump administration is weighing a dramatic tariff reduction on Chinese imports to as low as 50%, according to people familiar with discussions due to begin on Saturday. Spot gold +0.8%, Silver +0.3%, Copper is flat.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil extended gains, poised for a weekly gain as trade tensions between top oil consumers China and the United States showed signs of easing. Brent climbed toward
$64 a barrel, following a 2.8% gain in the previous session. The US sanctioned a third teapot refinery in China — along with port terminal operators, vessels and individuals — for allegedly facilitating the trade of Iranian crude. The UK also plans to announce
sanctions today on as many as 100 tankers that it says are part of the shadow fleet helping Russia move its oil. Kazakhstan reportedly said it has no plans to cut oil output in May, increasing the chances of another accelerated production hike from OPEC+ in
July. Trump called for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and threatened more sanctions if a truce is violated. WTI +2.1%, Brent +2%, US Nat Gas +2.4%, RBOB +1.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell versus most Group-of-10 peers amid renewed selling
pressure as traders turned their focus to weekend talks between US and China. The yen leads gains with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that trade deals with South Korea and Japan could take significantly more time to complete. The euro edges higher
as Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the ECB should cut its interest rate next month if its new forecasts confirm an outlook of disinflation and waning growth momentum. India’s central bank probably intervened in the currency market to curb excessive
volatility amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan, people familiar said. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.35%, USDNOK -0.5%, USDMXN -0.05%.

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +7.5%.  Ethereum surged to its strongest weekly performance in more than three years. The gains come on the heels of Ethereum’s latest upgrade,
known as Pectra, which aims to lower transaction costs and enhance efficiency. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $65
    • Autoliv (ALV) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $123
    • Carrier Global (CARR) Raised to Buy at Northcoast; PT $85
    • Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Overweight at Capital One; PT $146
    • Coeur Mining (CDE) Raised to Buy at Cantor; PT $10
    • GeneDx Holdings Corp (WGS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $80
    • Haleon (HLN LN) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11.25
    • Knight Therapeutics (GUD CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$6.50
    • Lyft (LYFT) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $20
    • National Vision (EYE) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $21
    • Owens Corning (OC) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $178
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $275
    • Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$160
      • Raised to Overweight at Capital One; PT $112
    • Tapestry (TPR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
  • Downgrades
    • Airbnb (ABNB) Cut to Reduce at Phillip Secs; PT $112
    • AMD (AMD) Cut to Hold at DBS Bank; PT $105
    • Apellis Pharma (APLS) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $23
      • Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $52
    • Block (XYZ) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $55
    • Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Itau BBA
    • Cascades (CAS CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$9.50
    • CVRx (CVRX) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $7
    • Cytek Biosciences (CTKB) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $4
    • Definitive Healthcare (DH) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • DocGo (DCGO) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Expedia (EXPE) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $135
    • First Advantage (FA) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $20
    • Holley (HLLY) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
    • International Money (IMXI) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $11
    • International Paper (IP) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
    • Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
      • Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $3
    • Kinaxis (KXS CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital; PT C$210
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $31
    • Murphy USA (MUSA) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $117
    • Packaging Corp (PKG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $180
    • Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Skyworks (SWKS) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • Stagwell (STGW) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
    • Uber (UBER) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $87.48
    • Vital Farms (VITL) Cut to Positive at Stifel; PT $44
    • Vor BioPharma (VOR) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
      • Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $3
  • Initiations
    • Axon (AXON) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Esco Tech (ESE) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • HF Foods (HFFG) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $7
    • Himax Technologies (HIMX) ADRs Reinstated Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Industrial Logistics (ILPT) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $5
    • Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Rated New Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $91
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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