Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 13, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET CPI*, Hourly Earnings

Highlights and News:  

  • Zelenskiy insists on face-to-face talks with Putin in Istanbul
  • US cuts ‘de minimis’ tariff as China lifts Boeing ban
  • GREER: IT WILL TAKE TIME TO END NON-TARIFF BARRIERS WITH CHINA
  • Greer: Trump to Consider Change if We See Results on Fentanyl
  • Goldman Sachs Strategists Say Further Stock Rally Is Less Likely
  • NETANYAHU: IN COMING DAYS WE’LL GO INTO GAZA WITH FULL MIGHT

 

Global stocks pause as optimism around tariff cuts between the US and China gives way to lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth. World markets had
little reaction to the US announcing today that it will cut the “de minimis” tariff on Chinese shipments of items valued at up to $800. China exported $240 billion in direct-to-consumer goods benefiting from de minimis worldwide last year, accounting for 7%
of its overseas sales, according to Nomura estimates. Trump is in Riyadh today, kicking off a broader Middle East trip, while his administration is preparing to announce a deal that would grant Saudi Arabia more access to advanced semiconductors. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent told an investment forum in Riyadh that he’s upbeat on trade talks with nations in Asia and that progress with Europe will be slower. Bessent said the European Union has a “collective action problem” that’s hampering trade negotiations
with the US. Meanwhile, India is looking at levying import duties on some products made in the US to counter Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum products.
President Zelenskiy will only attend talks on Ukraine if Putin is also there, challenging the Kremlin to show it is genuine about seeking peace.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed as investors turn their focus to a key inflation reading which is expected to show the first clear signs of inflationary impacts from President Trump’s tariffs. 
Analysts are expecting a 0.3% monthly rise in CPI and an annual rate holding steady at 2.4%. Sentiment among US small businesses deteriorated for a fourth straight month in April due to concerns about the economic outlook and sales prospects amid higher tariffs.
Among early movers this morning is Coinbase Global, which jumped over 9% after being slated to join the S&P 500 on May 19. The earnings season is winding down with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. China has lifted its ban on Boeing plane
deliveries following the tariff truce. Investors now await cues of a potential trade deal from Trump’s four-day visit to the Gulf region.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI -0.5%.

In pre-market trading, 3D Systems (DDD) sinks 22% after the 3D-printer maker reported products revenue for the first quarter that missed estimates. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
(ARWR) climbs 6% after the drug developer reported earnings per share for the second quarter that was ahead of expectations. Coinbase Global (COIN) climbs 9% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens May
19. Enphase Energy (ENPH) drops 5% after BMO cut its recommendation on the solar energy equipment manufacturer to underperform. On Holding (ONON) rises 5% after the company nudged its sales growth forecast higher. Pinterest (PINS) declines 2% after the Information
reported Google may unveil next week a feature that shows images designed to give people ideas for fashion and other types of designs. Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) tumbles 11% post-market after the quantum computing firm’s 1Q revenue missed expectations.
Other quantum computing stocks are down: Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) -3%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) -3%. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) drop 10% after the health insurer suspended its 2025 outlook and said CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down for personal reasons, effective
immediately.

European gauges edge higher, helped by a rally in Bayer AG after its earnings beat estimates on robust demand for its new cancer and kidney medicines. Insurance stocks
lagged behind, with Munich Re shares falling as much as 5.4% after the firm’s first-quarter profit slumped due to losses from wildfires in Los Angeles. Bank of America’s European fund manager survey showed that investors are increasingly seeing upside for
European equities in the coming months, with further earnings estimate upgrades in sight for the region. Investor confidence in Germany’s economy improved in May as the initial shock from US tariffs fades and a new government prepares to boost public spending.
An expectations index by the ZEW institute climbed to 25.2 in May from -14 the previous month. Stoxx 600 +0.25%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Basic Resources +1.7%, Retail +1.6%, Autos +1.1%, Luxury +1%. Real Estate -1%, Insurance -0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining as much as 1%, before trimming its gains to 0.2%. Japanese stocks were among the biggest
gainers in the region, with the Topix posting its longest winning streak in nearly 16 years. Shares fell in Hong Kong as the trade agreement is seen as reducing Beijing’s need to announce any large stimulus. Stocks in mainland China pared early gains to trade
little changed. Nomura strategists upgraded Chinese stocks to a “tactical overweight,” given the lower geopolitical risk premium. Chinese airline companies rose as the nation removes a month-long ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing planes. Pharmaceutical
companies rebounded in Asia as concern over President Trump’s executive order aimed at cutting US prescription drug prices eased, with analysts saying implementation would be difficult. Philippines +1.7%, Topix +1.1%, Taiwan +0.95%, Vietnam +0.8%, ASX 200
+0.4%, Thailand +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.15%, Kospi +0.05%. Sensex -1.5%, Hang Seng Index -1.9%, Hang Seng Tech -3.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, led by the front-end as a small portion of Monday’s aggressive bear flattening move is unwound. US yields richer
by up to 3.5bp across the front-end of the curve and slightly lower at the back-end, re-steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 2bp on the day; US 10-year yield trades around 4.445%, down around ~2bp from Monday’s close. Ahead of CPI, Fed-dated OIS prices
in around 55bp of easing for the year. Barclays changed their Fed call, now seeing first rate cut of 25bps in December, followed by three 25bps cuts next year.

 

METALS: 

Gold nudged higher as the dollar eased and initial optimism over a trade truce between the United States and China ebbed, while investors looked forward to key US
inflation data. Traders will have early focus on the Consumer Price Index report, potentially showing tariff-related costs, and for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.5%, Copper +0.9%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil held on to its recent recovery as attention moved away from the de-escalation of the US-China trade war towards the Middle East. President Trump, who signaled
progress in nuclear talks with Iran, is starting his trip to the Middle East today with a stop in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has led two supersized production increases from the OPEC+ cartel in recent weeks in apparent deference to the president’s calls for cheaper
crude. The nation’s budget deficit has soared and at $65 per barrel, oil prices remain significantly below the levels the Saudis need, according to the International Monetary Fund. WTI +1%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas +0.3%, RBOB +0.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded lower against all Group-of-10 peers except the loonie in the aftermath of the temporary truce between the US and China. Traders
bought risk-on currencies sensitive to China’s outlook during the Asia session, while the Swiss franc and Sweden’s krona met fresh demand after the European open. The yen firmed as Bank of Japan board members signaled their intention for further rate hikes
while citing the need to stay vigilant due the potential economic impacts from US tariffs. The euro rose with Germany’s ZEW investor expectations rising more than economists forecast in May. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD
+0.6%, NZDUSD +0.6%, USDCHF -0.4%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.9%, USDNOK -0.4%, USDMXN -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum +1%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Antero Resources (AR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Aon PLC (AON) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $408
    • Argenx (ARGX BB) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $680
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $395
    • CubeSmart (CUBE) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $50
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • First Solar (FSLR) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $221
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Insulet (PODD) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $350
    • Payoneer Global (PAYO) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $9
    • PBF Energy (PBF) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $26
    • Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $90
    • Steven Madden (SHOO) Raised to Hold at Williams Trading; PT $31
    • Terex (TEX) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $66
    • Tiny (TINY CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$1.75
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $154
    • XP Inc. (XP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
  • Downgrades
    • Affimed (AFMD) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $119
    • Chevron (CVX) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $158
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $39
    • Illumin Holdings Inc (ILLM CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord
    • Independence Realty (IRT) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $22
    • Landsea Homes (LSEA) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $11.30
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
    • NexPoint Residential (NXRT) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $42.50
    • Nextdoor (KIND) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
    • PHX Minerals Inc (PHX) Cut to Hold at Texas Capital; PT $4.35
    • Rapid7 (RPD) Cut to Underperform at DA Davidson; PT $21
  • Initiations
    • Associated Banc (ASB) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $26
    • Black Hills (BKH) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $68
    • Bright Minds Biosciences (DRUG CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $102
    • Evergy (EVRG) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $75
    • First Financial (FFBC) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $27
    • First Horizon (FHN) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $21
    • Flagstar Financial (FLG) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $13
    • FNB Corp (FNB) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $16.50
    • Fortinet (FTNT) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Gran Tierra (GTE) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $7.16
    • High Liner Foods (HLF CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$21
    • Insmed (INSM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $105
    • Mullen Group (MTL CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$18
    • Northwestern (NWE) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $60
    • Old National (ONB) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $26
    • Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $142.30
    • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $123
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $95
    • Portland General (POR) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $46
    • Sangoma Technologies (STC CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$12
    • SouthState Corp (SSB) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $106
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
    • Synovus (SNV) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $56
    • UMB Financial (UMBF) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $120
    • Valley National (VLY) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $10
    • Webster Financial (WBS) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $61
    • Western Alliance (WAL) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $92
    • Zions (ZION) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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