Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 15, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30
ET: Core PPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, 8:40 ET Fed Chair Powell Speaks, FOMC Member Barr Speaks

 

Highlights and News:  

 

  • Trump Asks Apple to Stop Moving iPhone Production to India
  • Measles cases in US surpass 1,000 for the first time since 2019, CDC reports
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods to Buy Foot Locker for $2.4 Billion
  • The Chicago Bears will open the season on ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” against the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings on Sept.
    8 at Soldier Field

 

Global stocks pause as US futures weakened, led by declines in major tech names and fading optimism. Asian markets snapped a four-day winning streak amid cooling
hopes for easing US tariff tensions and mixed earnings signals. European stocks were flat as energy shares dropped 1.2% amid falling oil prices on reports of a possible US-Iran nuclear deal, raising oversupply concerns. The US dollar weakened against major
currencies, with safe havens like the yen and South Korean won gaining ground after recent talks. Meanwhile, Oil prices fell more than 3.5%, pressured by diplomacy and planned OPEC+ production hikes, keeping crude down over 14% for the year.

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures fell as optimism about a stock rally faded, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% early Thursday, Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.6%. The “Magnificent Seven”
are all in the red, led by Tesla (-1.8%) and Apple (-1%), as risk appetite continues to cool. Alibaba ADRs drop 5.6% after missing revenue estimates, hurt by softness in its international e-commerce unit and restructuring at its logistics arm. Among notable
movers, Dlocal climbs 21% after topping earnings expectations and announcing a special dividend. Foot Locker jumps 84% after agreeing to be acquired by Dick’s Sporting Goods in a $2.4 billion deal. Boot Barn gains 13% following upbeat Q1 same-store sales guidance,
while Cisco adds 3.3% on a strong AI-driven revenue forecast. DXC Technology slides 14% after issuing weaker guidance, CoreWeave falls 6.6% on a downbeat profit outlook, and New Fortress Energy plunges 34% after EBITDA missed and analysts flagged a drag from
its Jamaican asset sale.

 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.3%.

 

 

 

 

European stocks were muted as the global rally paused and investor focus shifted to mixed corporate earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed, with
energy stocks down 1.2% as oil prices fell on reports that Iran may abandon nuclear ambitions in exchange for US sanctions relief. Shares of Salvatore Ferragamo dropped 4.5% on weak April trading, while Allianz and Siemens also declined after earnings, weighing
on broader sentiment. Although the region rebounded after the US tariff reprieve, European equities have underperformed US markets, with the Stoxx 600 still over 3% below its March high. Analysts warned that optimism around trade deals and tax cuts could be
premature. Premier Foods rose 1% after beating profit estimates, while Ubisoft plunged 17% on a flat sales outlook. Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.02%, CAC 40 -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2%.

 

 

 

Asian stocks declined, set to snap a four-day rally, as optimism over easing US tariff risks faded and investor caution returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell
up to 0.5%, with Japanese equities dragged down by a stronger yen, and losses in Thailand and the Philippines exceeding 1%. Tencent slipped despite strong earnings, weighing on Hong Kong markets as investors awaited Alibaba’s results. Chinese equities showed
mixed signals—Shenghe Resources surged on acquisition news, while Xiaomi lagged amid EV concerns. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley noted signs of earnings stabilization in China, though a major market re-rating appears unlikely. Japan -0.9%, Nikkei
-1%, China -0.9%, Hong Kong -1%, Taiwan -0.2%, South Korea -0.7%, Australia +0.2%, New Zealand +0.8%, India +0.7%, Singapore +0.2%, Malaysia -0.5%, Philippines -1.3%, Indonesia +1.2%, Thailand -1.4%, Vietnam +0.2%.

 

 

 

 

FIXED INCOME:   

 

US Treasuries edged higher across the curve, led by gains in the front end and belly, partially reversing Wednesday’s selloff driven by hawkish Fed policy expectations.
European bonds, including German Bunds and UK gilts, outperformed amid a wave of data releases such as UK GDP, industrial production, and French CPI. Yields fell 2-3 basis points across maturities, with the 5-year sector leading and the 10-year near 4.51%.
Investment-grade dollar issuance was light, with eight borrowers pricing $11.5 billion on Wednesday at spreads around 6 basis points tighter than their credit curves and heavily oversubscribed. Key US data today include April retail sales, Empire manufacturing,
PPI, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, industrial production, business inventories, and the NAHB housing market index.

 

 

 

 METALS: 

 

Gold steadied near $3,180 an ounce after dipping to a month-low, as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and key US economic data for direction. Despite
recent losses tied to fewer expected Fed rate cuts and easing US-China trade tensions, gold remains up over 20% this year, supported by strong demand from bullion ETFs, central banks, and speculative Chinese buyers. Tighter monetary policy and higher yields
weigh on gold, but risk-off sentiment may limit declines. Spot gold was little changed, silver -0.1%

 

 

 

 

ENERGY: 

  

Oil prices fell for a second day as President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are nearing a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, raising concerns about a potential oversupply
later this year amid planned production increases from OPEC+. Brent crude dropped to $63.69 a barrel, while US WTI futures also slid, pressured by reports Tehran is willing to forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief, signaling a possible diplomatic
breakthrough. This follows volatile trading earlier in the week when prices were buoyed by Trump’s threats of maximum pressure on Iranian oil exports. Analysts warn that a deal combined with OPEC+ output hikes and slowing global demand due to trade uncertainties
could further pressure prices. Oil remains down over 14% this year, impacted by trade tensions and faster-than-expected OPEC+ production gains, while the recent pullback eases inflation concerns but strains producers, with US shale firms cutting spending and
Saudi Arabia increasing borrowing. Brent fell 3.1% and WTI -3.4%.

 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

 

The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday ahead of retail sales data that could reveal consumer strength amid ongoing tariff risks, while enthusiasm
over a Sino-U.S. trade deal cooled. Safe-haven currencies gained, with the Japanese yen up 0.6% to 145.88 per dollar after earlier hitting a one-month low.  Most Asian currencies advanced versus the dollar, led by a 0.7% surge in the South Korean won following
talks between U.S. and South Korean officials on exchange rates. Sterling firmed after UK data showed unexpected growth in March, bolstering the government and finance minister. Despite reports the U.S. is not seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations,
the dollar index inched lower but remains up 0.4% for the week, though down nearly 7% year-to-date. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.3%.

 

 

 

Bitcoin -1.2%, Ethereum -2.1%. 

 

 

Colors within the report: Green is
always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21, Blue
= 50, Brown = 100 *Stars
have added importance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

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