TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from
the trading desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: ET
8:30: US April Housing Starts,10:00 a.m: US May University of Michigan Sentiment, 9:40 p.m: Fed’s Daly speaks
Highlights and News:
- Trump Says US Will Set Tariff Rates for Other Nations in Weeks
-
Nuggets beat Thunder 119-107 to force Game 7
Global stocks rose on Friday as the initial boost from easing US-China trade tensions faded and investors processed a mixed batch of corporate earnings. In the US,
equity futures pointed higher, with the S&P 500 set for one of its strongest weeks this year, while European stocks aimed for a fifth straight week of gains. In Asia, Alibaba’s disappointing results dampened sentiment, counterbalancing gains in companies like
NetEase and policy-supported sectors in China. Meanwhile, the US is preparing to blacklist more Chinese chipmakers, which some officials say might hurt trade talks, the FT reported. President Trump said he’d set tariff rates for US trading partners “over the
next two to three weeks.” Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk’s CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen announced a surprise departure, and TSMC supplier GlobalWafers revealed plans to increase its US investments to $7.5 billion.
EQUITIES:
US equity futures rose on Friday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures gaining 0.4% as stocks look set for one of their best weeks this year,
buoyed by a rally triggered by easing US-China trade tensions and softer inflation data. The Magnificent Seven stocks traded mixed premarket, with Alphabet +1.5%, Tesla +1.1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft little changed, and Meta -0.1%.
Premarket movers include Charter Communications, which surged 9.4% after announcing a merger with Cox Communications, Archer Aviation up 5.7% on its LA28 Olympics partnership, and Rocket Cos. up 4.4% after ValueAct disclosed a large stake, while Doximity dropped
18% and Globant plunged 28% on disappointing forecasts. Under the surface, market breadth has improved, with 63.7% of stocks advancing on May 15 and a growing number trading above key moving averages, supporting the ongoing rally across US indices despite
intermittent volatility and lingering caution about economic uncertainty
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.35%, Russell 2000 +0.64%, DJI +0.36%.
European stocks were on track to notch a fifth consecutive week of gains, buoyed by easing global trade tensions and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. The
Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as much as +0.7% in morning trading, bringing its weekly gain to about 2.3%—the longest winning streak since February. Consumer products led the advance, with Richemont surging 6.8% on robust Cartier sales, while health care and
food stocks also performed well. In contrast, miners and construction stocks lagged. Despite pressure from rising US bond yields, optimism over a US-China trade truce and better earnings—MSCI Europe profits rose 5% vs. expectations of a 1.5% drop—have bolstered
sentiment. Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.02%, CAC 40 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.4%.
Asian stocks traded in a tight range as investor optimism from the US-China trade détente cooled and Alibaba’s weaker-than-expected earnings dampened sentiment. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%, fluctuating between a 0.3% gain and 0.2% loss. NetEase was the top performer, jumping as much as 16% on strong first-quarter results, while Alibaba slumped up to 6.7% after missing revenue estimates and warning of increased
investment in its quick commerce unit. Tech shares showed mixed performance, while sectors like infrastructure and healthcare in China gained on renewed policy support. Hang Seng -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.5%, Nifty 50 -0.2%, Kospi +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.6%, Taiex +0.5%,
NZX 50 -0.7%, JCI +0.7%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries firmed slightly across the curve, with futures building on Thursday’s gains and 10-year yields dipping to 4.405%. The move was supported by outperformance
in bunds and gilts, which outpaced Treasuries by 2.5bp and 1.5bp, respectively, in the 10-year sector. US yields were richer by 2–3 basis points, with spreads little changed from Thursday’s close. The US data calendar includes April housing and price figures,
Michigan sentiment, and TIC flows, with Fed’s Daly scheduled to speak late in the session.
METALS:
Gold prices dropped more than 2% on Friday and were heading for their worst week in six months, as easing trade tensions between the US and China reduced demand for
safe-haven assets and prompted profit-taking after recent gains. Improved risk sentiment, alongside expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following weak US data, contributed to the pullback. Gold -2.3%, Silver -2.1%.
ENERGY:
Oil prices fluctuated as Iran questioned progress in nuclear talks with the US, briefly lifting Brent prices by as much as 1.1% before settling below $65 a barrel.
Earlier losses followed President Trump’s suggestion of a potential deal that could lead to limited additional Iranian supply. However, the International Energy Agency warned that rising global production will likely outpace demand, reinforcing the risk of
a market surplus. Oil is on track for a second weekly gain but remains over 10% for the year. WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.4%, Nat Gas -1.1%.
CURRENCIES:
The dollar weakened against most G-10 currencies on Friday. Despite the pullback, the greenback was still on track for a second weekly gain ahead of key US data releases,
including housing starts, building permits, and consumer sentiment. EURUSD rose as much as 0.3% before trimming gains, and USDJPY dropped as much as 0.5% to a one-week low. NZDUSD led G-10 gains, climbing to 0.7% after New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations
rose to 2.29% in Q2. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.02%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.06%.
Bitcoin +0.15%, Ethereum +2.6%.
Colors within the report: Green is
always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21, Blue
= 50, Brown = 100 *Stars
have added importance
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Upgrades
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Bitcoin Depot (BTM) Raised to Outperform at Northland; PT $5
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Carnival (CCL) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $24
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Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $357
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Martin Marietta (MLM) Raised to Buy at UBS
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Paysafe (PSFE) Raised to Neutral at BofA
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Pentair (PNR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $113
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Seagate (STX) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $100
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Sunstone Hotel (SHO) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
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Vulcan Materials (VMC) Raised to Buy at UBS
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Downgrades
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Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $17
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Foot Locker (FL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $24
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Globant (GLOB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $116
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Neurogene Inc (NGNE) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $24
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Park Hotels (PK) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
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Ree Automotive (REE) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
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Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $1
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Initiations
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Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $80
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Cameco (CCO CN) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT C$87
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MTY Food Group (MTY CN) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$51
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
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