Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 20, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  ET
8:30 Philly Fed Non-Manf. Activity, Canada CPI, 9:00 Fed’s Barkin Speaks, Fed’s Bostic Speaks,1:00pm
Fed’s Musalem Speaks     

 

Highlights and News:  

 

 

  • US Supreme Court lets Trump end deportation protection for Venezuelans
  • Fred Warner and the 49ers reached agreement on a three-year, $63 million contract extension that includes over
    $56 million in guaranteed money that makes him the NFL’s highest-paid linebacker.
  • GM to stop exporting vehicles from U.S. to China, company says

 

 

Global stocks steadied on Tuesday as investors caught a breather after Monday’s volatility sparked by concerns over U.S. debt and Moody’s credit downgrade. European
markets outperformed, with Germany’s DAX hitting a record high, while Asian stocks showed resilience despite weaker U.S. futures. JPMorgan and Citi predict U.S. stocks will underperform European equities in 2025 by the largest margin in two decades. Treasury
yields eased slightly but Japanese long-term bond yields surged following a weak auction, highlighting ongoing global debt market jitters. The dollar and oil fell, while gold rose. Meanwhile, Trump plans to rally House Republicans behind his tax-cut bill,
while crypto gained support after stablecoin legislation advanced.

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures were lower, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.2%, ending a six-day winning streak. Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 0.2%, while Dow Jones futures remained
mostly unchanged. Tesla gained 1.4%, Alphabet rose 0.5%, and Home Depot increased 2.2% after maintaining its fiscal year guidance amid steady US sales. ImmunityBio climbed 4% following an upgrade by Piper Sandler, citing a strong launch of its bladder cancer
drug Anktiva. Pegasystems jumped 6% ahead of its inclusion in the S&P Midcap 400 on May 22, and ASP Isotopes surged 15% after securing financing deals to support construction of a uranium enrichment facility. Air Lease rose 1.2% following a Citi upgrade, and
Pony AI jumped 5% on better quarterly revenue. In contrast, Trip.com, Vipshop, and Yalla fell 4%, 8%, and 8% respectively after disappointing earnings or user declines. Other notable movers included CoreWeave (+5.9%), Amer Sports (+10.6%), Webull (+7.7%),
Instil Bio (+32.8%), and Quipt Home Medical (+31.2%), while MongoDB, ResMed, and Viking Holdings saw declines.

 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.24%, Russell 2000 -0.09%, DJI +0.03%.

 

 

 

European equities rose for a fourth consecutive session, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.6% as utilities and construction shares led gains, while financials
and consumer products lagged. Sentiment was lifted after U.S. President Donald Trump reversed an order blocking Equinor ASA’s $5 billion wind project, triggering a rally in renewables. Orsted jumped 16% in Copenhagen, Vestas gained 6.7%, and Equinor rose 1.8%
in Oslo. Germany’s DAX touched the 24,000 level for the first time ever. Strategists expect European stocks to outperform U.S. peers this year as earnings surprise to the upside and investors remain underexposed. Among notable movers, Diploma surged 18% after
upgrading its guidance, Orange rose 2.7% on SFR deal speculation, and Rheinmetall and Greggs also advanced. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.5%, CAC 40 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.6%.

 

 

 

Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, with Hong Kong-listed shares driving gains amid a wave of upbeat corporate news. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
climbed as much as 0.6%, the most in nearly a week, led by advances in Alibaba, Sony, and Xiaomi, the latter jumping after announcing mass production of a new chip. Chinese healthcare stocks surged following 3SBio’s licensing pact with Pfizer, while CATL rose
on its Hong Kong debut after completing the year’s largest IPO. Despite broad optimism on easing trade tensions and steady global growth, some analysts warned the rally may be short-lived due to rising valuations. Notable movers included Alibaba Pictures (+30%),
CSPC Pharma (+6.1%), and 3SBio (+32%), while Alibaba Health dropped 5.2%. Sector-wise, South Korean solar stocks declined, mirroring US weakness. Major index performances: Hang Seng +1.5%, Nikkei +0.1%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Kospi –0.1%, ASX 200 +0.6%, Nifty 50 –0.6%

 

 

 

FIXED INCOME:   

 

Treasuries opened mixed with a steeper yield curve as front-end yields dipped 1–2bps while the 30-year rose around 3bps to 4.93%. The 7-year sector remained little
changed, with the 10-year at 4.46%, lagging bunds and gilts, which outperformed on soft German PPI data and a £4 billion gilt syndication. Key Treasury auctions this week include $16B in 20-year bonds and $18B in 10-year TIPS, while Fed speakers dominate today’s
light data calendar.

 

 

 METALS: 

 

Gold prices inched higher following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, with focus shifting back to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and easing
trade tensions. China’s gold imports surged 73% month-on-month to 127.5 metric tons last month despite record prices, driven by strong demand and relaxed bullion inflow restrictions. Gold +0.3%, Silver +0.6%.

 

 

 

 

ENERGY: 

 

Oil prices whipsawed after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed doubt over nuclear talks with the US, dampening hopes for a deal that could ease
sanctions and boost Iranian crude exports. Brent briefly touched $66 before retreating as traders digested mixed signals on supply and diplomacy. The market remains volatile amid uncertainty over potential additions from Iran and Russia to a market already
facing surplus risks. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen noted that traders are cautious, with the recent rebound possibly running out of steam. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.5%, Nat Gas +1.9%.

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

 

In currency markets, the U.S Dollar Index steadied after Monday’s 0.6% decline, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields held at 4.45%. The Australian dollar edged lower
ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, with most economists expecting a 25 basis point cut to a two-year low of 3.85%. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, indicated rate cuts may not come before September. USDJPY
was steady at 144.88, as importer demand was offset by leveraged sellers following comments from Japan’s finance minister.US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.8%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.6%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.03%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colors within the report: Green is
always the 200 period (day, week). Red is always 21, Blue
= 50, Brown = 100 *Stars
have added importance 

 

 

  •  Upgrades
    • Air Lease (AL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $68
    • Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $23
    • Celanese (CE) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $55
    • Energy Recovery (ERII) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $15
    • GAP Airports (GAPB MM) ADRs Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • ImmunityBio Inc (IBRX) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler;
      PT $5
    • Kinetik (KNTK) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $55
    • Kroger (KR) Raised to Hold at Melius; PT $70
    • LivaNova (LIVN) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $60
    • Loma Negra (LOMA AR) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley;
      PT $15
    • Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Raised to Buy at UBS
    • MKS Inc. (MKSI) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $110
    • Westshore
      Terminals       (WTE CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$30
  • Downgrades
    • AES Corp (AES) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $9
    • Asana (ASAN) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
    • Asur (ASURB MM) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT
      $330
    • ATI Inc (ATI) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Chubb (CB) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $303
    • Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $26.44
    • Golden Ocean (GOGL) Cut to Hold at Nordea
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • LanzaTech Global (LNZA) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
    • MongoDB (MDB) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $190
    • Nutanix (NTNX) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $110
    • Prime Medicine (PRME) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • SBA Comms (SBAC) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $247
    • TXNM Energy (TXNM) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $61.25
    • Westlake
      Corp       (WLK) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $76
  • Initiations

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

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