Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 22, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 8:30ET Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jobless Claims; 9:45ET
Mfg PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI; 10:00ET Existing Home Sales; 11:00ET KC Fed Mfg Activity; 1:00ET $18 billion 10-year TIPS reopening; 2:00ET Fed’s Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • HOUSE PASSES REVISED TRUMP TAX BILL, SENDS IT TO SENATE
  • Trump: “very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public”
  • Final RFK JR MAHA Report May Be Released as Soon as Today – WSJ
  • OPEC+ Discusses Another Super-Sized Output Hike
  • FED’S WALLER : IF TARIFFS ARE CLOSER TO 10% THEN ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE FOR 2H

 

Global stocks fall as concerns over the US fiscal outlook trigger a broader risk-off move, with a looming US tax bill that could add trillions to deficits is clouding
sentiment. Euro area private-sector activity unexpectedly contracted in May, with services experiencing their weakest performance in 16 months. The new tax bill will ‘stabilize things’ but it is not conducive to deficit reduction, JPMorgan’s Dimon said. Senate
Republicans are planning to press for substantial changes before approving the package.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures slip after President Trump’s signature tax bill narrowly passed the House. House Republican leaders released a revised version of President Trump’s tax and spending
bill, which includes a higher limit on the deduction for state and local taxes and other changes to win over GOP factions. The House passed the Republican bill this morning and will send to the Senate. House Speaker Johnson said the tax bill will be done by
July 4. Meanwhile, Shares of UnitedHealth and Humana fell on news the Trump administration plans to expand audits of private Medicare plans. The Fed’s Waller said this morning that he expects the Fed to cut in the second half of 2025 is tariffs drop.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.8%, DJI -0.4%.

In pre-market trading, Solar stocks sink as US House Republicans’ new version of the tax and spending bill accelerates the end of incentives for clean electricity production.
Sunrun (RUN) -34%, Array Technologies (ARRY) -14%, First Solar (FSLR) -6%. Crypto-linked stocks gained after Bitcoin hit an all-time high. Galaxy Digital (GLXY) +5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3%, Mara Holdings (MARA) +3%. Advance Auto Parts (AAP) soars 30% after
the retailer of aftermarket auto components reaffirmed its comparable sales forecast for the full year. Analog Devices (ADI) rises 2% after the chipmaker reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat. LiveRamp (RAMP) climbs 10% after
the marketing technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Lumen Technologies (LUMN) advances 12% after AT&T agreed to buy the company’s consumer fiber operations. Manchester United (MANU) drops 5% after the English football club
lost the high-stakes Europa League final. Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) surges 175% after the semiconductor company said Nvidia picked it to collaborate on data center power infrastructure. Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) falls 4% after the oil and gas company priced
its stock offering. Snowflake jumped 10% after the cloud computing firm raised its fiscal 2026 product revenue forecast. Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 18% after the apparel retailer reported net sales for the first quarter that beat.

European gauges are broadly lower, holding near lows of the day as worries over rising bond yields curbed investor appetite for risk assets. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index
sinks roughly 1% following steep declines Wednesday across US markets after a disappointing Treasury auction sent yields surging. The yield-sensitive technology sector was among the biggest laggards. Renewable-energy stocks fell after House Republicans released
a new version of the tax and spending bill that accelerates the end of tax incentives for clean electricity production. EasyJet Plc dropped 4% after the low-cost airline reported bigger-than-expected losses. Shares in Germany’s Freenet AG, real estate investment
trust British Land Co. and Swedish gaming and entertainment firm Embracer Group AB all fell after results. Stoxx 600 -1%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -1.1%, FTSE 100 -0.9%. Luxury -2.2%, Autos -1.8%, Household Goods -1.8%, Media -1.6%, Tech -1.5%. All sectors are in the
red.

Shares in Asia dropped the most in two weeks, driven by losses in technology stocks after Treasury yields jumped overnight on concerns about the US budget deficit.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%, with Alibaba, TSMC and Samsung contributing the most to the losses. South Korea’s Kospi led losses, while gauges in Hong Kong, Japan and India also lost ground. Philippine stocks weakened after President Ferdinand Marcos
Jr. ordered his cabinet to resign. JPMorgan’s Dimon said they are committed to long-term investment in China, despite tensions with the US. Kospi -1.2%, Hang Seng Index -1.2%, Philippines -1.1%, Nikkei 225 -0.8%, Sensex -0.8%, Vietnam -0.7%, Taiwan -0.6%,
Thailand -0.5%, ASX 200 -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.05%. Indonesia +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries resume curve-steepening trend, with 30-year yield reaching new multi-month high around 5.13% while short-end tenors richen, pivoting around a little-changed
7-year sector. 5s30s spread near 97bp is widest since May 1. 10-year yield is up 1bp around 4.61%: 2-year yield is down 2bps: 2s10s up ~2bps. Treasury sells $18 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1;00ET; Wednesday’s 20-year new-issue auction tailed
by about 1bp, spurring long-end yields higher. Attention today will be on PMI and jobless claims data, a 10-year TIPS auction and comments by NY Fed President Williams.

 

METALS: 

Gold is reversing earlier losses as the Republican-led US House of Representatives voted this morning to approve Trump’s sprawling tax relief and spending cuts mega-bill.
Concerns over the US government’s debt and geopolitical uncertainties support safe-haven demand. Silver and Copper remain lower on the day. Spot gold near flat, Silver -1.6%, Copper -1.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices drop after a report that OPEC+ members are discussing a potential third consecutive oil production raise in July, with an output hike of 411,000 barrels
a day among the options under consideration. No final agreement has yet been reached, the delegates said. Prices were already lower in the session after EIA data released on Wednesday revealed US crude and fuel inventories showed surprise stock builds last
week as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped. Marco Rubio said a Venezuela oil-export license will expire next Tuesday, defying earlier expectations that it would be extended.  WTI -1.7%, Brent -1.6%, US Nat Gas -1.3%,
RBOB -1.7%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen edges higher against the dollar after US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato reaffirmed their shared belief
that exchange rates should be market determined, and that the dollar-yen exchange rate reflects fundamentals. The officials did not discuss foreign exchange levels during their meeting. US fiscal concerns and yesterday’s tepid auction of Treasury bonds kept
the dollar pinned near a two-week low. The euro slipped after Euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracted this month. Sterling reversed gains to trade flat versus the dollar after data showed the UK private sector contracted again in May. New Zealand
dollar underperforms after downgrading 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts in the national budget. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD flat, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2.6%, Ethereum +6.1%.  Bitcoin jumped to an all-time high, partly as investors sought out alternatives to US assets. The 10,000 bitcoin spent on 2 Papa John’s
pizzas in 2010 by Laszlo Hanyecz is now worth $1.1 billion, just shy of Papa John’s market cap of $1.3 billion.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Dana (DAN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $20
    • Inogen (INGN) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $12
    • Integer (ITGR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $140
    • Planet Fitness (PLNT) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $120
    • StoneCo (STNE) Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $16
    • United Rentals (URI) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $865
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $78
    • XPeng (XPEV) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $24
    • Zoom Communications (ZM) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $100
  • Downgrades
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $185
    • Bruker Corp (BRKR) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $40
    • Canada Goose (GOOS CN) Cut to Sell at Williams Trading; PT C$10
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT $370
    • Finning International (FTT CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Guidewire (GWRE) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $226
    • MAG Silver (MAG CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT C$28.57
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Hold at Melius
    • Sunrun (RUN) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $4
      • Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $10
    • Target (TGT) Cut to Hold at Melius
      • Cut to Neutral at BofA
      • Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $110
    • UroGen Pharma (URGN) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • Vigil Neuroscience (VIGL) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $8
      • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $76
    • ZTO Express (ZTO) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $19
  • Initiations
    • Altria (MO) Rated New Hold at Needham
    • Applied Digital (APLD) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $12
    • Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $15
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Market Perform at Citizens
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $150
    • Goodyear (GT) Resumed Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $17
    • Hut 8 Corp (HUT CN) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT C$34.63
    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $13
    • Oruka Therapeutics Inc (ORKA) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $44
    • Philip Morris (PM) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $195
    • Richemont (CFR SW) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $19.20
    • Serve Robotics (SERV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $17
    • Solaris Energy (SEI) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $32
    • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $33
    • Terawulf (WULF) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $7
    • Vtex (VTEX) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $7.30

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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