Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on May 28, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Richmond Fed Business Conditions; 10:30ET Dallas Fed
Services Activity; 1:00ET 5-Year Auction; 2:00ET FOMC Meeting Minutes

Highlights and News:  

  • ZELENSKIY SAYS HE’S READY TO MEET WITH TRUMP AND PUTIN
  • Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they become the 51st State
  • SpaceX’s Starship rocket suffered a leak and exploded during a test flight
  • Musk expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s tax bill
  • 50% of US large-cap mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD

 

Global stocks were steady while attention turns to earnings from Nvidia later in the day. Japanese longer-dated bonds fell, prompting similar moves in US and European
fixed income markets after a 40-year JGB auction drew the weakest demand since July. French consumer spending rose 0.3% in April, less than expected, showing a modest recovery after subdued household demand slowed economic growth earlier in the year. German
unemployment jumped by the most since mid-2022. Inflation expectations of euro-area consumers increased for a second month in April, with prices seen rising 3.1% over the next 12 months. The RBNZ cut its key rate to 3.25% as expected and signaled at least
one more reduction.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are muted as traders await direction from the most important earnings announcement of the season. Nvidia shares are little changed in premarket ahead of their earnings
due after the bell. The focus in the firm’s first-quarter earnings report will be the supply of computer systems based on its new Blackwell chips. Morgan Stanley warned of the potential for a “messy” quarter, as current estimates may not reflect Trump’s ban
on Nvidia selling its H20 chip in China. Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3B. Trump posted that he is working on taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public but wants to be clear that the government will keep
its implicit guarantees.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Booz Allen (BAH) slips 2% as Goldman Sachs cut its rating to sell, citing limited revenue and earnings growth in the medium term. Box (BOX) jumps
10% after the software company raised its full-year forecast. Elevance Health (ELV) jumps 6% after the health insurer reaffirmed its adjusted profit forecast for the full year ahead of an investors’ meeting. Galaxy Digital (GLXY) falls 9% after the crypto
company reported an underwritten offering of 29 million shares. GameStop (GME) gains 4% after announcing the purchase of 4,710 Bitcoin tokens. Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) gains 9% after the announcement that Toyota Motor Corp. had invested $250 million in the
air taxi maker, completing the first half of a previously announced $500 million commitment. Macy’s Inc. rises about 2% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Okta (OKTA) slumps 10% after the cybersecurity company gave a weaker-than-expected
outlook. Vail Resorts (MTN) jumps 12% after the operator of ski resorts said it reappointed Rob Katz as CEO.

European gauges give up early gains to trade in the red as government bond yields resumed their rise. Real estate and the energy sectors were among the gainers as oil
rose ahead of an OPEC+ committee meeting, while insurance, healthcare and retail lagged.  French chip supplier Soitec shares plunged as much as 26% after the company withdrew its guidance for 2026 and its medium-term revenue and Ebitda margin targets. Greggs
Plc was the worst performing stock on the wider benchmark after Shore analysts downgraded the stock to hold from buy. Stoxx 600 -0.25%, DAX -0.35%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Retail -0.7%, Luxury -0.6%, Healthcare -0.6%. Aero & Defense +1.1%, Real Estate +0.7%,
Energy +0.25%.

Shares in Asia were steady as weakness in Chinese tech firms tempered gains in semiconductor shares.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended little changed after rising
as much as 0.6%. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC gained ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Tencent and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the index. South Korean equities led gains in the region, with the Kospi closing at the highest level since Feb. 19. Japan’s
Topix erased a gain of as much as 1% to settle flat on the day. Chinese shares eased amid concerns over worsening deflationary pressures. Economists expect deflationary pressure to worsen in China, with consumer prices projected to increase by just 0.3% in
2025 from a year ago. Kospi +1.25%, Philippines +0.6%, Singapore +0.4%, Vietnam +0.15%, Taiwan +0.1%. Topix was flat. CSI 300 -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Thailand -0.2%, Sensex -0.3%, Indonesia -0.3%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are slightly higher as traders await US supply and the FOMC minutes. Government bond issuance is under scrutiny globally after a string of weak auctions
in the US and Japan, where a 40-year auction sale today met the weakest demand since July. US 10-year yield is up 1bps at 4.455%. 5s30s curve is flat while 2s10s is steeper by ~3bps, around session highs, leading into the early US session. A $70 billion sale
of a new five-year note later in the day is followed by a $44 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold ticked up after two days of declines, with investors adopting a cautious stance despite data indicating better economic sentiment and progress in trade negotiations.
Spot gold rose as much as 0.7% to trade near $3,325 an ounce before paring gains. Looking ahead, investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the US personal consumption expenditures price index, which will be released Friday.
Spot gold +0.2%, Silver -0.2%, Copper +0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices ticked up in a choppy session as the market juggled the outlook for more OPEC+ supply and the risk of additional US sanctions on Russia. The US barred
Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela under a new authorization on its assets there, raising the prospect of tighter supply. OPEC+ is meeting online today to review production quotas for this year and next, with several delegates saying they expect the
group to leave their longer-term targets unchanged. Key members will decide on May 31 whether to bolster output again in July. US-sanctioned tankers have emerged in the supply chain ferrying Russian oil to India, data from Kpler and Vortexa showed. WTI +0.9%,
Brent +0.8%, US Nat Gas -0.3%, RBOB +0.8%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar was little changed, trading close to its lowest levels since 2023. The yen fluctuated after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said the central
bank is closely watching the rise in long-bond yields and weak demand at a 40-year auction. Aussie$ fluctuated after Australia’s monthly inflation gauge came in slightly faster than expected in April. The kiwi dollar rose 0.3% after the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. The Turkish lira remained under pressure after authorities opened an investigation into Istanbul’s interim mayor. Citi’s month-end rebalancing model points to a net selling of USD vs all of the major currencies
with the strongest signals vs JPY and GBP. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD ~flat, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.25%, USDNOK -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum -0.6%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Barings BDC (BBDC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $9.50
    • Fair Isaac (FICO) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $1,900
    • Noble Corp. (NE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30
    • State Street (STT) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $167
    • XP Inc. (XP) Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $22
  • Downgrades
    • BNY Mellon (BK) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
    • Booz Allen (BAH) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $94
    • Boundless Bio (BOLD) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $3
    • Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $96
    • Informatica (INFA) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
      • Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $25
    • InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$14
      • Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$14
      • Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$14
    • Par Pacific (PARR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $19
    • PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Sell at UOB Kay Hian; PT $90
      • ADRs Cut to Hold at Huatai Research; PT $102.30
      • ADRs Cut to Hold at China Renaissance; PT $107
    • Prothena (PRTA) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $4
    • Rocket Pharma (RCKT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $2.50
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $7
      • Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $8
    • Runway Growth Finance (RWAY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Skechers USA (SKX) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $63
    • Vigil Neuroscience (VIGL) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $8
  • Initiations
    • Aclaris (ACRS) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $8
    • Adidas (ADS GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $165
    • Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $45
    • Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Arista Networks (ANET) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $111.67
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $301.15
    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $35
    • Centrus Energy (LEU) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Genesco (GCO) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $23
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) Resumed Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Henkel (HEN3 GR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $22
    • Immatics (IMTX) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $10
    • JBS (JBSS3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $22
    • Marks & Spencer (MKS LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $66.53
    • NeuroPace (NPCE) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $18
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $56
    • Republic Services (RSG) Rated New Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Sonic Automotive (SAH) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $76
    • Teva (TEVA IT) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $25
    • Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $21
    • Ultragenyx (RARE) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • WM (WM) Rated New Sector Perform at National Bank; PT $249

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed