Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET GDP, Core PCE Price Index, Jobless Claims, Fed’s Barkin speaks; 10:00ET Pending Home
Sales; 10:40ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:00ET 7-Year Auction; 2:00ET Fed’s Kugler speaks; 4:00ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 8:25 p.m.: Fed’s Logan speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump’s Trade Strategy Upended After Court Blocks Global Tariffs
• HASSETT: JUDGES’ DECISION ON TARIFFS WILL BE OVERTURNED
• HASSETT: TRUMP ADMIN HAS DIFFERENT OPTIONS ON TARIFFS
• HASSETT: 3 DEALS WERE READY FOR TRUMP DECISION AS OF LAST WEEK
  
• Senators Request More Details on Nvidia’s China Ties – WSJ
• CHINA OPEN TO DIALOGUE TO RESOLVE TRADE ISSUES WITH EU: HE
• US will revoke visas for Chinese students with connections to the CCP or studying in critical fields

Global stocks got a boost after a vast majority of President Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court. It’s unclear just how fast
Wednesday’s ruling will go into effect, with the court giving the government up to 10 days to carry out the necessary administrative moves to remove the tariffs. The Trump administration plans to appeal the ruling, with many businesses and importers facing
uncertainty and potential refunds on tariffs already paid. US importers paid a record $16.5 billion in tariffs in April. Major trading partners including China that are in negotiations must now decide whether to press ahead in efforts to secure deals or slow
walk talks on the bet they now have a stronger hand. Also thrown into doubt would be the outlines for a trade deal that Trump reached with the UK earlier in May. Japan’s top trade negotiator is headed to Washington for a fourth round of talks despite the US
trade court ruling.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures jumped after a majority of Trump’s global tariffs were deemed illegal and blocked by the US trade court, and Nvidia posted another set of blockbuster results. The order
applies to Trump’s global flat tariff, elevated rates on China and others, and his fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Other tariffs imposed under different powers are unaffected, and include the tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the administration can offset this by using other tariff tools. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang soothed investor fears about a China slowdown by delivering a solid sales forecast, saying that the AI computing market is still poised
for “exponential growth.” Tech stocks led gains in premarket trading, with Marvell Technology, Super Micro Computer and ARM Holdings rising more than 3%.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.75%, Nasdaq +1.25%, Russell 2000 +0.8%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) rises 5% after delivering a solid sales forecast. Apple (AAPL) +2%, Amazon (AMZN) +2.5%, Tesla (TSLA) +2.3%,  Alphabet (GOOGL)
+1.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +1.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.7%. Agilent (A) rises 5% after the lab-technology company boosted its revenue forecast. Burlington Stores (BURL) gains 9% after the clothing retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the first
quarter that beat. C3.ai (AI) jumps 13% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and announced the renewal of its partnership with Baker Hughes. Elf Beauty (ELF) rises 9% after the cosmetic company agreed to acquire
Hailey Bieber’s beauty brand. HP Inc. (HPQ) sinks 9% after giving a profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of expectations and cutting its annual forecast. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) slumps 16% after the drug developer said a patient in a
late-stage trial for a heart disease drug recently experienced a severe side effect. JD.com (JD) ADRs gain 4% after the company said it’s expanding a partnership with Xiaohongshu for users to access its shopping site. Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) climbs 4% after posting
better-than-expected comparable sales. SentinelOne (S) plunges 13% after the maker of security software cut its revenue guidance for the year. Synopsys (SNPS) rises 4% after the software company reported adjusted second-quarter earnings that beat expectations.
Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) climbs 15% after the healthcare-software company boosted its year profit and revenue forecast as 1Q results topped estimates.

European gauges rose on optimism about a brighter trade outlook. Cyclical sectors such as consumer products and banks outperformed, while defensive stocks including
utilities and real estate fell. BP Plc rose as its Castrol lubricant business was said to attract interest from energy companies including Reliance Industries and buyout firms such as Apollo Global Management and Lone Star Funds. Still, risks remain including
from weak seasonal trends. June is historically one of the worst months for the Stoxx 600, with the gauge dropping 1.3% on average over the past 25 years. Buybacks are offering European stocks another source of support. The Solactive European Buyback Index,
which tracks the share movement of companies that have announced a buyback in the past two months, has climbed about 8.5% in May. The price ratio of the buyback index to the Stoxx 600 benchmark has risen to the highest ever in data going back to 2003. Stoxx
600 +0.3%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.1. Travel & Leisure +1.2%, Banks +0.7%, Autos +0.7%, Tech +0.5%. Utilities -0.7%, Real Estate -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia gained, with Japanese and South Korean stocks rising more than 1.5% as worries over US tariffs eased slightly after a trade court deemed the bulk of
Trump’s new levies illegal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%, with Toyota, Sony and Meituan among the biggest boosts. Semiconductor shares gained after Nvidia gave a bullish outlook. Still, uncertainty remains over the outcome of Trump’s appeal and progress
on individual countries’ trade deals. South Korea’s Kospi was the biggest gainer in the region. The BOK cut rates by 25 bps to 2.5% as expected, saying there’s a chance of larger reductions in the future after it lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast. Kospi
+1.9%, Nikkei 225 +1.9%, Hang Seng Index +1.3%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Sensex +0.4%, Thailand +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.15%. Taiwan -0.05%, Philippines -0.2%, New Zealand -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with stock futures advancing after a court ruling blocked some of President Trump’s import tariffs, spurring a risk-on
backdrop. Downside pressure on Treasuries also seen after positive sentiment from Nvidia Corp. posting another set of strong results. US session focus includes $44 billion 7-year note sale along with a bunch of Federal Reserve speakers. 10-year yield is around
4.5%, while the curve is relatively flat.

METALS: 

Gold prices edge higher after initially falling in response to a US trade court ruling. The US Supreme Court may ultimately have the final say in the high-stakes
case that could impact trillions of dollars in global trade. The US trade court ruling is the latest twist in the market uncertainty unleashed by Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, which has driven investors to seek safety in gold.  Spot gold +0.6%, Silver
+1.3%, Copper +0.8%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices pare most of the gains made earlier following a US court decision to block most of President Trump’s tariffs. Brent had climbed as high as $65.50 earlier
in the session after the US Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs were unlawful. Investors are also monitoring potential new US sanctions limiting Russian crude supplies and OPEC+’s upcoming decision on
increasing production in July. US crude stockpiles fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, API data showed. That would be the biggest drop this year if confirmed by the EIA today. WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +0.2%, RBOB +0.5%.    

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar trimmed its initial advance on the tariff news but remains on track for a third straight daily gain, as the yen and Swiss franc led
minor losses. For now the bulk of Trump’s tariffs have been deemed illegal, although the president still retains the option and ability to levy some measures on specific sectors. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD
-0.1%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Bitcoin +1.3%, Ethereum +3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Claritev Corp (CTEV) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $44
• eXp World Holdings (EXPI) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $10.75
• HCA Healthcare (HCA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $385
• Lamar (LAMR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $135
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Raised to Buy at GF Securities; PT $100
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Buy at Summit Insights
• Southwest Air (LUV) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $40
• Tenet (THC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $195
• Downgrades
• Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Chain Bridge Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $29
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $6
• GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $517
• InflaRx (IFRX) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James
• Paramount Global (PARA) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $12
• Rocket Pharma (RCKT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $275
• Savara (SVRA) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $2
• SentinelOne (S) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $19
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $18
• Starbucks (SBUX) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $90
• WillScot Holdings (WSC) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Initiations
• Discovery Silver Corp (DSV CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$4.50
• Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $70
• HP Inc (HPQ) Rated New Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $25
• Kingfisher (KGF LN) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $6.30
• National Grid (NG/ LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $80.40
• Pursuit Attractions (PRSU) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $38
• Secure Waste (SES CN) Reinstated Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$18
• Steris (STE) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $263
• Thesis Gold Inc (TAU CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• TMX Group (X CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$59
• Unilever (ULVR LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $73
• USA Rare Earth (IPXXU) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $15

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke