Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  
8:30ET Trade Balance, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims; 12:00ET Fed’s Kugler speaks; 1:30ET Fed’s Harker speaks,
Fed’s Schmid speaks  

US April Goods Imports From China Fall To $28.3B From $34.9B

Highlights and News:  

• CHINA VICE PRESIDENT HAN ZHENG MEETS US DELEGATION
• Trump banned individuals from 12 countries from entering the US
• US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Level Since October
• US APRIL IMPORTS FROM CHINA AT LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2020

Global stocks inch higher ahead of an expected ECB interest rate cut. The European Central Bank is expected to provide more support with its eighth interest-rate
reduction in a year. German factory orders increased 0.6% in April, defying expectations of a 1.5% decline, due to substantial growth in demand for computer, electronic, and optical products. Sweden’s underlying inflation rate fell to a five-month low, broadly
in line with expectations and strengthening the case for the Riksbank to reduce interest rates later this month. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 5.75% on Friday.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures wavered, with investors cautious ahead of Friday’s jobs report. The market mood is cautious as investors seek new drivers after Wednesday’s slowdown in this week’s stock
rally. Weak private-sector hiring and services sector data have raised fears that Trump’s broad tariffs are beginning to impact the US economy negatively. GOP senators and President Trump discussed ways to scale back the SALT deduction in the president’s tax
bill, Majority Leader John Thune said. Broadcom shares rise 1% in premarket ahead of earnings due after the bell. IBM held takeover talks in recent months with Informatica, sources said.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %.

In pre-market trading, Chewy shares (CHWY) are down 2.4% after Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala cut the recommendation on the online retailer of pet products to hold
from buy. Dollar Tree (DLTR) is up 1.6% after JPMorgan upgraded the discount retailer to overweight from neutral. Five Below (FIVE) gains 6% after the discount stores company reported first-quarter results that beat. Nebius shares (NBIS) gain 5.6% after the
AI infrastructure software provider is initiated with a buy rating at Arete Research, while peer CoreWeave declines 2% after getting new neutral rating. PVH shares (PVH) drop 7.9% after the Calvin Klein owner cut its full-year adjusted earnings guidance. Planet
Labs shares (PL) jump 20% after first-quarter revenue beat estimates.

European gauges are higher ahead of the widely expected ECB rate cut. With trade tensions rising again, the focus will remain on further policy signals from the ECB
as well as key US jobs data due Friday. The Stoxx 600 is rising for a third day with miners, construction and real estate stocks leading gains while travel and retail lag. Wise Plc hit a record high on plans to move its primary listing to the US, while travel
and leisure stocks fell after President Trump signed a proclamation banning individuals from 12 countries from entering the US. Wizz Air Holdings Plc plunged 23% after the discount airline reported earnings that missed estimates and refrained from providing
a guidance, citing poor visibility. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Basic Resources +1.4%, Construction +1.3%, Real Estate +1%. Travel -0.6%, Retail -0.5%.

Shares in Asia edged higher, as South Korean shares extended a rally on hopes of improved corporate governance under the new president.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 0.1%, hitting its highest level in more than three years. Still, uncertainty persists around the progress of US-China trade talks, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping making clear that a phone call doesn’t come without a price. Chinese rare earth stocks extend
a recent rally amid growing concerns that China’s export controls on the metals would disrupt global supply. Chinese computing stocks advanced after the nation vowed to accelerate innovation and application of artificial intelligence to support industrial
development. Kospi +1.5%, Hang Seng Index +1.1%, Thailand +0.8%, Indonesia +0.6%, Sensex +0.5%, Singapore +0.3%, Taiwan +0.25%, CSI 300 +0.2%. Philippines -0.03%, ASX 200 -0.03%, Vietnam -0.3%, Nikkei 225 -0.5%, Topix -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries edged higher, getting a boost from Japan, where government bonds rose after a 30-year auction was better than feared. Good demand for French and Spanish
debt auctions also helped European bonds. US session includes weekly jobless claims data and three Fed speakers. Long-end yields 2bp-3bp lower on the day and front-end slightly cheaper, flattening 2s10s curve by ~1bp. 10-year yield is down about 2bps at 4.33%.

METALS: 

Gold rallied to a nearly one-month high as investors cautiously waited for the key US labor report. Spot gold rose above $3,400 an ounce before paring some gains
as silver prices soared to their highest level since 2012. Silver surged to its highest level in 13 years, driven by a technical breakout and broadening demand for precious metals beyond gold. Silver has also been bolstered by significant inflows into silver-backed
exchange-traded funds, with holdings up by 2.2 million ounces on Wednesday. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that growth in nonfarm payrolls slowed and the unemployment rate remained steady.  Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +3.8%, Copper +2.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices inch higher with WTI near $63 a barrel after reversing earlier losses. Brent remained stuck near $65 a barrel as signs Saudi Arabia is seeking another
big production increase at next month’s OPEC+ meeting offset the outlook for summer demand. Saudi Arabia cut its July prices for Asian crude buyers to nearly the lowest in four years. Global oil investments are expected to drop 6% in 2025, driven by lower
demand and prices, the IEA said. WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas -0.9%, RBOB +0.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the euro was little changed and kept to a tight range ahead of the European Central Bank policy decision as traders focus more on incoming US
economic data. The dollar is steady as investors await today’s economic data including jobless claims and the April trade balance. The yuan falls for the first time in three sessions as no clear indications emerge of talks between President Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping are taking shape. The yen fell after sources told Reuters the Bank of Japan is considering slowing down the pace of tapering in its bond purchases. US$ Index +0.03%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.02%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.3%,
USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.3%

Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum +0.4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Broadcom (AVGO) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $111
• Dr Reddy’s (DRRD IN) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $16.90
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• OGE Energy (OGE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $47
• Southern Co (SO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $100
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $180
• Udemy (UDMY) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $9
• Visa (V) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $425
• Downgrades
• Chewy (CHWY) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $43
• Coursera (COUR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11
• Eli Lilly (LLY) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Ferguson (FERG) Cut to Hold at Berenberg
• Hamilton Insurance Group Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $23
• Lavoro (LVRO) Cut to Underperform at Oppenheimer
• MercadoLibre (MELI) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $2,800
• Microsoft (MSFT) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $444.65
• Nvidia (NVDA) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $138
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Initiations
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Neutral at Arete; PT $130
• Excelerate Energy (EE) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $39
• Forte Biosciences Inc (FBRX) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Funko (FNKO) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $8
• Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance
• Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $71
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $84
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Haitong Intl; PT $105.71
• PolyPid (PYPD) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $9
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $51

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke