Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on June 6, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  
8:30ET Employment Report; 10:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 3:00ET Consumer Credit

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show the US added 126,000 jobs in May; unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.2%

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump and Musk to speak today after feud: Politico
  • NO PLAN FOR WHITE HOUSE- ELON MUSK CALL, PERSON FAMILIAR SAYS
  • Tesla’s $150B Market Cap Loss was Biggest in Company’s History
  • MUSK’S STARLINK GETS INDIA LICENSE, GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS
  • Musk backs off on a threat to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft
  • Trump said he’s open to a SALT cap below the $40,000 in the House-passed tax bill

 

Global stocks inched up as investors await key US payrolls data, while Tesla shares clawed back some ground in pre-market trading. Traders were also digesting whether
a phone call between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday would help ease trade tensions. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have been in direct contact trying to reach a trade deal, but the two sides still have work to do to
find agreement. Trump is planning to attend the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Canada on June 15, with some Canadian officials hoping to reach a deal before then. Japan and the US have begun the latest round of trade negotiations, with Japan’s delegation
seeking a reprieve from US tariffs by pledging to make more cars in the US and enhancing cooperation on rare earths. German industrial production fell 1.4% in April, and exports declined 1.7%, exceeding economists’ predictions, the statistics office said today.
Germany’s economy is expected to stagnate this year due to uncertainty around global trade, according to the Bundesbank. The euro-area economy expanded 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, above the previous estimate of 0.3%, driven by surging exports in countries
like Ireland and Germany.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rise ahead of jobs data as Tesla shares jump 5% in premarket on signs that the spat between President Trump and Elon Musk may cool. Politico reported White House aides
have scheduled a call between Musk and Trump. CNBC reported this morning that the White House is saying there is no call scheduled. Trump told ABC News that he is “not particularly“ interested in talking to Musk although he says Musk wants to talk to him.
Tesla lost $150B in market cap yesterday, its biggest in history. Musk suggested on X that he would be open to a cooling-off period. Broadcom shares fall in premarket after giving a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter. Trump is said to be open
to a state and local tax deduction cap lower than the $40,000 in the House-passed version of his tax bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson is fighting to keep the SALT cap as is, saying it’s crucial for the House to pass the final version of the tax bill.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.3%.

In pre-market trading, Braze shares (BRZE) are down 10% after the application software company reported its first-quarter results. Broadcom shares (AVGO) are down 2.2%
after the chipmaker gave a forecast that isn’t seen as strong enough to extend the stock’s recent strength. However, analysts note positive AI trends. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) gain 1.3% after Scotiabank analysts upgraded the stock to sector outperform from
sector perform. Vera Therapeutics shares (VERA) plunge 30% after Japanese rival, Otsuka, gave results from a trial of its experimental therapy for kidney disease that was better than Vera’s data.

European gauges are steady as investors look for fresh catalysts on trade negotiations between the US and China ahead of a key US jobs report. Investors will also be
keeping a close eye on how the European Central Bank’s policy evolves after yesterday’s comments from its President Christine Lagarde signaled that it is nearing the end of its campaign of interest rate cuts. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is flat, with the mining
sector and consumer shares among the biggest laggards, while energy and the retail sectors outperformed. Ireland’s surprisingly robust quarterly growth of nearly 10% gave a major boost to the euro-area economy, which expanded twice as much as previously reported
at the start of the year. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX -0.3%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Energy +0.5%, Retail +0.4%, Healthcare +0.4%. Aero & Defense -1.1%, Basic Resources -0.8%, Industrial Goods -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as a much-anticipated call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping offered little details
on how trade negotiations would progress. The US and China have agreed to further trade talks aimed at resolving disputes over tariffs and supplies of rare earth minerals but stopped short of making any concrete announcements. Indian stocks rose after the
central bank cut interest rates more than projected and unexpectedly reduced the cash reserve ratio for banks. Markets in Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea were closed for holidays. Sensex +0.9%, Topix +0.5%, Singapore +0.4%, Taiwan -0.05%, CSI 300 -0.1%,
ASX 200 -0.3%, Thailand -0.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%, Vietnam -0.9%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are steady ahead of the jobs report, with US 10-year yields +0.5bps around 4.39%. Curve spreads are within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels. US morning
features May employment report and a speech by Fed’s Bowman on supervision and regulation. Jobs report is anticipated to show 126k increase in nonfarm payrolls (vs 177k in April); crowd-sourced whisper number is 110k.

 

METALS: 

Gold inched up as the precious metal remained stuck in a tight range, in a sign of caution before the US non-farm payroll data. Spot gold climbs $10 to around $3,362/oz
while silver tops $36/oz. Silver rose to a 13-year high and platinum reached levels last seen in 2022, driven by technical momentum and rising demand, especially from India and China.  Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +1.3%, Copper -0.7%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices were slightly lower but were headed for weekly gains on supply concerns. OPEC+ may add only 225,000 barrels a day in actual output in July, far lower than
the planned 411,00 b/d, FGE said. The group may raise production further in August, September and potentially October. OPEC+ members are expected to agree to two large output hikes for August and September at their next meetings, according to HSBC Research.
Venezuela’s state-run oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), has reportedly signed at least nine new agreements with foreign service providers, including two Chinese companies. WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.02%, US Nat Gas +1.2%, RBOB -0.2%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar firms as traders trim exposure and await US non-farm payrolls data for fresh insights into the health of the world’s largest economy.
The Japanese yen is the weakest G-10 currency as expectations are growing that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance as soon as next month. The US Treasury called on the BOJ to raise rates to strengthen the yen, making a remarkable policy recommendation
in its semiannual currency report. The euro dips, with little reaction after euro-area GDP was revised up for the first quarter. ECB policymakers largely stuck to Thursday’s messaging after they cut rates by a quarter point. The Treasury Department declined
to name any country a currency manipulator but singled out China for its lack of transparency and warned against unfair currency practices. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDSEK +0.3%,
USDNOK +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +3.4%, Ethereum +3.4%.   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Deere (DE) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $750
    • Hello Group (MOMO) ADRs Raised to Buy at BOCOM Intl; PT $8.30
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $38.50
    • MasTec (MTZ) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $195
    • Ormat (ORA) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $86
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $80
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$11.50
  • Downgrades
    • American Homes (AMH) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $41
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $371
    • McDonald’s (MCD) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $315
    • MYR Group (MYRG) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $168
    • PG&E (PCG) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • Transcontinental (TCL/A CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$23.25
  • Initiations
    • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII) US Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Amneal Pharma (AMRX) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $12
    • Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Chagee Holdings (CHA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $41.50
    • Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $10
    • Cybin (CYBN CN) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $106
    • Dynacor Group Inc (DNG CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$6.50
    • EVI Industries (EVI) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $28
    • Five9 (FIVN) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $35
    • Hut 8 Corp (HUT CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$16
    • QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $44
    • RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $3
    • RingCentral (RNG) Re-Initiated Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Senti Biosciences (SNTI) Rated New Buy at Laidlaw; PT $15
    • Solventum (SOLV) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Sweetgreen (SG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $16
    • Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
    • Teva (TEVA IT) ADRs Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $24
    • Twilio (TWLO) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $146
    • Viatris (VTRS) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $10
    • Zoom Communications (ZM) Re-Initiated Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed