Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET PPI Final Demand, Initial Jobless Claims; 12:00ET Household Change in Net Worth;
1:00ET 30-Year Auction

Highlights and News:  

• Israel is fully prepared to take military action against Iran
• AN ATTACK ON IRAN COULD SPIKE OIL PRICES TO $120: JP MORGAN
• Stocks Drop After Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat: Says He Will Set Unilateral Tariffs in Two Weeks
• Republican Senators Mull $30,000 SALT Cap in Trump Tax Bill
• Japan and US Still Far Apart in Tariff Talks
• An Air India flight to London with 242 people on board crashed shortly after takeoff
  

Global stocks slipped amid a broader risk-off theme after President Trump announced plans to notify trading partners of unilateral tariff rates within the next one
to two weeks. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba sees a large gap between the US and Japanese positions on trade negotiations and has no specific timeline for reaching a deal. Reports that Israel is fully prepared to take military action against Iran also weighed
on sentiment. Iran would respond to Israel in ‘more forceful and destructive way’ than past offensives, Revolutionary Guards commander says. Iran said it would establish a new uranium-enrichment center in response to a decision by the United Nations atomic
watchdog to censure the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program. The breakdown in nuclear diplomacy has led to a rise in regional tensions, with Iran warning it could hit US military assets in the Middle East if talks collapse. Iran’s nuclear chief Eslami
says the new enrichment site is already built and ready to operate as soon as it is equipped with machinery, according to IRNA.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fell after Trump ratcheted up trade uncertainty with remarks that he intends to impose unilateral tariffs on dozens of US trading partners in the coming weeks. Trump
said on Wednesday he would be willing to extend a July 8 deadline for completing trade talks, but did not believe that would be necessary. Republican senators are considering a $30,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction as a compromise between
current law and the House’s version of the tax bill. Senators are considering changes to the Section 899 “revenge tax” on foreign investors, which has raised concerns on Wall Street about its impact on foreign investment in the US. Oracle shares surged nearly
8% in premarket trading after the company raised its annual revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for its AI-related cloud services. Boeing shares fall 8% in premarket after an Air India Boeing 787 aircraft crashed shortly after taking off, killing all
242 people on board. Micron Technology (MU) and the Trump Administration today announced Micron’s plans to expand its U.S. investments to approximately $150 billion in domestic memory manufacturing and $50 billion in R&D, creating an estimated 90,000 direct
and indirect jobs.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -1%, DJI -0.6%.

In pre-market trading, Boeing (BA) falls 7% as a 787 Dreamliner aircraft operated by Air India crashed shortly after taking off in Ahmedabad, with 242 passengers and
crew on board, and no reports of survivors. CureVac NV (CVAC) soars 30% after BioNTech SE (BNTX) agreed to buy the former Covid vaccine rival for about $1.25 billion. Dana (DAN) rise 3% after the drive-train supplier said it will sell its off-highway business
to Allison Transmission for $2.7 billion. GameStop Corp. (GME) falls 14% on plans to offer $1.75 billion worth of convertible bonds. Oklo (OKLO) declines 6% as the small-reactor developer is seeking to raise as much as $400 million in a secondary share offering.
Oracle (ORCL) rises 8% after projecting cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in the current fiscal year. Oxford Industries (OXM) falls 10% after the owner of the Tommy Bahama apparel brand slashed its profit forecast for the fiscal year.

Russell 2000 Index nearly touched key resistance around the 200dma and .618 retracement.

European gauges are mostly lower due to fresh trade war concerns. The Bank of France cut its economic-growth and inflation forecasts through 2027 due to the fallout
from US tariffs. The UK’s gross domestic product dropped 0.3% in April, the largest monthly contraction in 18 months, due to Sharp tax increases and President Trump’s tariffs. It sets the stage for a lackluster second quarter as firms and consumers navigate
mounting job losses, tax rises and Trump’s global trade war. Travel, mining and auto shares are leading declines while energy stocks outperform. Among other individual stocks, Tesco Plc advanced as much as 2.2% after the UK food retailer’s sales increased
more than expected. Airline stocks fell, with Deutsche Lufthansa AG down 3.3% and EasyJet Plc dropping 2.3%. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -1.0%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Travel & Leisure -2.9%, Basic Resources -1.9%, Autos -1.8%. Utilities +0.4%, Energy +0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were mostly lower as investors fretted over Trump pledge to announce unilateral tariff rates soon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% after rising
for three straight days. TSMC and Alibaba were the biggest drags on the gauge, while Mitsubishi Heavy provided the biggest boost. Asian energy shares rose as oil jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after the US ordered some staff to depart its embassy in Baghdad.
Hong Kong led losses while South Korea extended its post-election gains. Hang Seng Index -1.4%, Thailand -1.1%, Sensex -1%, Taiwan -0.8%, Nikkei 225 -0.6%, ASX 200 -0.3%, Indonesia -0.25%, CSI 300 -0.05%.  Vietnam +0.6%, Kospi +0.4%, Singapore +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries climb ahead of US producer price data and a closely watched 30-year bond auction, with US 10-year yields falling 5 bps to 4.37%. Yields are richer by 4bp-5bp
at week’s lows, supported by wider gains in most European bond markets. The curve is slightly flatter with 2s10s -2bp. 30-year bond sale concludes this week’s Treasury auction cycle. Wednesday’s 10-year note drew strong demand, stopping through by 0.7bp.

METALS: 

Gold rises on escalating tensions in the Middle East. CBS reported that US officials have been informed of Israel’s readiness to launch an operation aimed at Iran,
prompting the US to move some embassy staff out of Iraq.  Meanwhile, Iran said it would establish a new uranium-enrichment center in response to a decision by the United Nations atomic watchdog to censure the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, deepening
the crisis that’s drawn in the US and Israel.  Spot gold +0.8%, Silver -0.1%, Copper -0.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices retreated as traders tracked tensions in the Middle East and the latest moves in US trade policy. The US administration on Wednesday said US personnel
were being moved out of the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, which briefly drove oil prices up by 4% before they receded. Crude shot up after Iran threatened to strike US bases if nuclear talks fell through and the US told some staff
to depart the embassy in Iraq. The UK Navy issued a warning to ships sailing across the Strait of Hormuz, through which over a quarter of the world’s oil travels.  “An attack on Iran could spike oil prices to $120, driving US CPI inflation to 5%,” JP Morgan
said. Global oil demand is back on track after a weak spring, JPMorgan said. WTI -1.9%, Brent -1.8%, US Nat Gas +2.3%, RBOB -1.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell to a new 2025 low as rising Middle East tensions and Trump said he plans to send letters to trading partners in the next one
to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 deadline. The euro rises against the greenback to the highest since November 2021. Sterling is higher but lags regional peers after UK GDP fell more anticipated in April. US$ Index -0.75%, GBPUSD
+0.3%, EURUSD +0.95%, USDJPY -0.6%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.4%, USDCHF -0.9%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -1.4%, USDNOK -0.9%.

Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -3.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Datadog (DDOG) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $150
• Elemental Altus Royaltie (ELE CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• TransAlta (TA CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$20
• Downgrades
• Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $18
• AtkinsRealis (ATRL CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$98
• Bancorp Inc (TBBK) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $65
• Capital Power (CPX CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$60
• CF Industries (CF) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Conmed (CNMD) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• Lineage (LINE) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $42
• Ouster (OUST) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $19
• United Natural (UNFI) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
• Initiations
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $69
• Anglogold (AU) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $52
• Cargojet (CJT CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$125
• Celsius Holdings (CELH) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $47
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
• Freshpet (FRPT) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $90
• Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $14
• Harrow (HROW) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $62
• IREN Ltd (IREN) Reinstated Outperform at Macquarie; PT $20
• LendingClub (LC) Reinstated Overweight at Stephens; PT $15
• Modine (MOD) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $125
• Monster Beverage (MNST) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $72
• Open Lending (LPRO) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $2.50
• Oportun (OPRT) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $10
• OppFi (OPFI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $14.50
• Pagaya (PGY) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $22
• Prairie Operating (PROP) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $8
• QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $32
• Sezzle (SEZL) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $168
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Reinstated Overweight at Stephens; PT $20
• Torrid (CURV) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Upstart (UPST) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $55

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke