Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on June 16, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from
the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30 a.m.: US June Empire Manufacturing,11:30 a.m.: US to sell $68 billion
26-week bills, $76 billion 13-week bills,1:00 p.m: US to sell $13 billion 20-year bond reopening, G-7 Leaders’ Summit in Alberta (through Tuesday)

Highlights and News:  

  • US JUNE EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX FALLS TO -16.0; EST. -6
  • Trump rejected Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme leader, per US officials.
  • Senate to Unveil Trump Tax Bill Draft With SALT Fight Unresolved
  • G7 Leaders Summit being held Sunday-Tuesday in Canada.
    G7 official said the leaders plan to issue a joint statement on Iran calling for de-escalation.
  • President Trump on Sunday said Israel and Iran ‘have to fight it out’ but believes deal is possible.
  • The devastating flash flooding and heavy rains prompted West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey to declare a state of emergency on Sunday.

 

Global stocks were mostly higher on Monday as investors looked past renewed tensions in the Middle East, with the MSCI World Index up 0.2% and European and U.S. futures
also rising, while oil prices steadied after last week’s surge and the dollar dipped slightly ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings. The mood remained cautious as currency markets stayed calm and safe-haven gold gave back some gains, with government
bond yields nudging higher globally and currencies of oil-exporting nations outperforming. Markets are now focused on upcoming policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, as well as G7 talks.

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures were set for a positive open with S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures each rose about 0.5%, rebounding from Friday’s sharp selloff and reflecting
investor optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict might remain contained. Notable premarket movers included Sage Therapeutics (+33%), Roku (+10%), Incyte (+7%), Smurfit WestRock (+4%), and Archer Aviation (+4%), while Sarepta plunged (-41%) after a gene therapy
setback. All the Magnificent Seven tech giants traded higher, with Tesla up nearly 2% and Meta Platforms up almost 1%. The broader market mood was supported by a pullback in safe-haven gold, gains in defensive and tech sectors, and anticipation of upcoming
economic data and central bank meetings, even as analysts warned of ongoing risks from elevated geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for a sharp market correction if tensions escalate further.

 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +0.5%.

 

European stocks advanced on Monday as investors grew confident that the Israel-Iran conflict would have limited impact outside the Middle East, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising
0.3% and luxury group Kering surging 11% after reports that Renault’s CEO would take the helm to revive Gucci’s fortunes. Travel, energy, and banking stocks led gains, while healthcare lagged, and Chinese retail sales data provided a further boost to luxury
names. Renault shares dropped 8% on the CEO news, and market consensus expects only short-lived financial effects from the conflict, with a brief flight-to-safety and a rise in oil prices that later faded as tensions appeared contained. DAX +0.4%, Stoxx +0.4%,
CAC 40 +0.8%, FTSE 100 +0.5%.

Asian stocks rose technology and energy firms led gains, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.7% and investors overcoming initial caution over the Israel-Iran conflict
despite concerns about higher oil prices; benchmarks in Japan, South Korea, and India posted strong advances, while Chinese markets were mixed as robust retail sales data offset weaker factory output—sector highlights included gains in energy, defense, and
nuclear stocks, as well as notable moves in Japanese crypto-related shares and declines in Tata Motors and Nexon. Traders now await upcoming central bank decisions from the Fed, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Nikkei +1.3%, Topix +0.9%; South Korea’s
Kospi +1.8%; India’s Nifty 50 +0.9%; China’s CSI 300 +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.35%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.7%; Australia’s ASX 200 +0.2%; New Zealand’s NZX 50 +1.1%; Vietnam’s VN Index +1.7%; Philippines’ ,Indonesia’s JCI -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S. Treasuries edged lower and underperformed European bonds, while the upcoming 20-year bond auction—scheduled earlier this week due to the Fed meeting and a holiday—also weighed on
the market; yields were 1.5-2 basis points higher across maturities, with the 10-year near 4.42% and bunds and gilts outperforming by 2-3 basis points. Attention turns to today’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening and Tuesday’s $23 billion 5-year TIPS auction,
alongside a light new-issue slate and key U.S. economic data releases this week.

METALS: 

Gold edged lower on Monday trading near $3,415 per ounce, about $80 below April’s all-time high—after erasing earlier gains as investors waited for a new catalyst. The recent surge in
geopolitical risk had propelled gold 3.7% higher last week, reinforcing a rally that has seen the metal rise about 30% in 2025, driven by threats to global growth from aggressive tariffs and central banks diversifying away from the dollar. Gold -0.5%, Silver
flat.

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices erased early gains as traders monitored ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel, which have so far spared critical export infrastructure and avoided any
closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz—the market’s biggest fear, as a blockage could send prices sharply higher. Despite the pullback, prices remain well above pre-attack levels, as Wall Street firms raise their crude price forecasts and shipping rates from
the Middle East to China soar over 20% amid heightened safety concerns and elevated options activity. Brent -1.0% WTI -1.15%.

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar reversed early gains as risk sentiment improved after the Tokyo fix, with oil prices easing and equities rebounding even as tensions between Israel
and Iran persisted. Antipodean currencies climbed on short covering. Central bank meetings—including the Fed, BOE, and BOJ—along with the G-7 summit are in focus this week, but front-end volatility remained subdued, reflecting limited hedging for tail-risk
scenarios amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. US$ Index -0.2%, EUR/USD +0.2%, AUD/USD +0.5%, USD/JPY flat, NZD/USD +0.7%, USD/CAD -0.1%

Bitcoin +1.9%, Ethereum +4.2%

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

 

 

  • Upgrades
    • Celanese (CE) Raised to Overweight at
      Wells Fargo; PT $66
    • Celsius Holdings (CELH) Raised to Buy
      at TD Cowen; PT $55
    • Cisco (CSCO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche
      Bank; PT $73
    • Freeport (FCX) Raised to Sector Outperform
      at Scotiabank; PT $48
    • Hudson Technologies (HDSN) Raised to
      Buy at B Riley; PT $9
    • Incyte (INCY) Raised to Buy at Stifel;
      PT $107
    • Jade Biosciences Inc (JBIO) Raised to
      Buy at Guggenheim; PT $14
    • Smurfit WestRock (SW) Raised to Buy at
      Jefferies; PT $55
    • Sutro Biopharma (STRO) Raised to Overweight
      at Piper Sandler; PT $2
    • TGS (TGSU2 AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at
      Banco BTG Pactual; PT $37
    • UroGen Pharma (URGN) Raised to Buy at
      HC Wainwright; PT $50
    • Wix.com (WIX) Raised to Overweight at
      Wells Fargo; PT $216
  • Downgrades
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Cut to Hold at NYKREDIT;
      PT $900
    • Packaging Corp (PKG) Cut to Hold at Jefferies;
      PT $205
    • Pros Holdings (PRO) Cut to Neutral at
      Baird; PT $18
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Sell at HC Wainwright;
      PT $10
      • Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $36
      • Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $70
  • Initiations

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

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