Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on June 23, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  09:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI; 10:00ET Existing Home
Sales, Fed’s Bowman speaks; 1:10ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 2:30ET Fed’s Kugler and Williams speak

Highlights and News:  

  • US Issues ‘Worldwide Caution’ for Americans After Attack on Iran: Iran Vows Retaliation
  • ISRAEL LAUNCHES ANOTHER ATTACK ON FORDOW NUCLEAR SITE: TASNIM
  • US anticipating attacks on military bases in Iraq and Syria; NYT
  • Iran’s supreme leader asks Putin to do more after US strikes
  • Crown Prince Pahlavi Reza says Iranian officials who want to defect & join the revolution are contacting him
  • The EU and Canada are expected to sign a security and defense partnership today

 

Global stock markets were muted after erasing earlier losses following US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend. The US attacked three sites in Iran
crucial to its nuclear program, including the uranium-enrichment facilities at Fordow. Iran’s army said the US has directly entered the war and it should expect “severe consequences.” Iran’s supreme leader sent his foreign minister to Moscow today to ask President
Putin for more help from Russia after the biggest US military action against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. President Trump and Israel have publicly speculated about killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and about regime change, a
step Russia fears could sink the Middle East into the abyss.  Iran said that the US attack expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called President Trump a “gambler” for joining Israel’s military campaign. Oil prices remained the
central focus as any interruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz raises the specter of a spike in energy prices and higher inflation.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures recovered from early overnight declines despite indications of rising tensions in the Middle East. Trump threatened more strikes unless Iran makes peace and hinted at
“regime change” in a Truth Social post. Iran said the US intervention delivered an “irreparable blow” to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In other news, Northern Trust shares climbed premarket after the WSJ reported that BNY Mellon approached Northern
Trust last week about a possible merger.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P ~flat, Nasdaq ~flat, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares fell 3% after Scotiabank cut its recommendation on the space broadband company to sector perform from sector outperform.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gains 0.4% after Melius Research upgraded the chipmaker to buy from hold. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is set to extend gains for a third consecutive session, rising 6% after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation last week.
Dow Inc. shares (DOW) are down 1.8% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the chemical company to underperform. Trump Media (DJT) jumps ~6% after announcing buyback plan of up to $400mm. Estee Lauder (EL) rises 1.8% after Deutsche Bank upgrades the cosmetics
company to buy from hold. Fiserv shares (FI) jump ~4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the financial-technology company’s plans to launch a stablecoin and platform for its clients. Li Auto ADRs (LI) gain 4.6% after the Chinese electric-vehicle maker
said it will introduce a new electric SUV in September. Northern Trust Corp. shares (NTRS) gain 4.6% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of New York Mellon had approached the company in recent days to express interest in a possible merger. Tesla
(TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent 7 stocks, rising 0.5%, after launching its much-anticipated driverless taxi service to a handful of riders on Sunday. US energy and defense stocks are higher with markets awaiting Iran’s reaction to US strikes.

European gauges fell as investors assessed how Iran would potentially respond to unprecedented US air strikes. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is near its lows of the day
with industrial goods and banking stocks underperforming, while utilities and technology gained. The euro zone economy flatlined for a second month in June, barely expanding as the bloc’s dominant services industry showed only a small sign of improvement and
manufacturing displayed none at all, a survey showed. Business activity expanded modestly in Britain as new orders grew for the first time this year. Strategists estimated that shutting the Strait of Hormuz would lead to a “major stagflationary shock,” in
which case stocks are likely to slump between 10% and 20%. In individual stocks, Spectris Plc jumped 15% as buyout firm Advent agreed to buy the maker of precision and testing equipment and software for about £3.8 billion ($5.1 billion). Novo Nordisk shares
dropped 4.9% after researchers presented new data on the Danish drugmaker’s next-generation obesity shot CagriSema. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -1%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Banks -1.5%, Industrial Goods -1.2%, Travel -1%. Utilities +0.3%, Technology +0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower as US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites dented risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 1% with indexes in Taiwan,
Philippines and Indonesia falling more than 1% each. Investors are closely watching for Iran’s response after it warned of retaliation while Israel showed no signs of easing its offensive. Shipping shares in South Korea and China also gained on speculation
that tanker freight rates could rise following the escalating conflict. On the data front, Japan’s manufacturing activity showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction. Philippines -1.9%, Indonesia -1.7%, Taiwan -1.4%, Sensex -0.6%,
Topix -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Kospi -0.25%, Singapore -0.1%. Hang Seng Index +0.7%, Vietnam +0.65%, CSI 300 +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US treasury yields are 2bp-3bp lower across maturities with the curve slightly mixed. 10-year yield is down ~3bps around 4.35%.  Treasury auction cycle includes $69
billion 2-year Tuesday, $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers.

 

METALS: 

Gold is seeing moderate losses, with spot gold trading around $3,360 an ounce. The market is waiting for Iran’s response to US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear
sites. Flaring geopolitical concerns usually boost gold on safe-haven demand. However, the stronger U.S. dollar and increasing oil prices–which could delay U.S. interest rate cuts–are limiting gains, MUFG says. Investors are also awaiting US data due this
week, including Thursday’s core PCE price index.  Spot gold -0.2%, Silver +0.1%, Copper -0.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before paring gains as investors bet that Middle East tensions won’t disrupt commodity flows significantly after the US struck
three Iranian nuclear facilities Saturday evening. Brent crude futures are holding gains above $77 a barrel, having erased most of the kneejerk opening gains while investors await Iran’s next move. Iran’s parliament reportedly approved the closing of the Strait
of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $110 a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as
much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over time. The IAEA saw no signs of radioactive contamination and said underground damage at Iran’s Fordow uranium-enrichment site can’t be determined yet. Israel launched new attacks near the site, but not targeting Fordow
itself, the army said. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas ~flat, RBOB +0.7%.  

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose as investors aimed to protect against escalating geopolitical tensions after US military actions against Iran. A supply-driven
oil price increase could trigger a short squeeze to consensus USD shorts, but medium-term fundamentals still suggest fading this dollar strength. Higher oil prices could stoke inflation and make the Federal Reserve reluctant to cut interest rates in the coming
months as it seeks to avoid stagflation. Emerging Asia’s central banks, including India, Malaysia, and Taiwan, are reducing their interventions in the currency market, allowing their currencies to appreciate against the dollar. The Australian dollar, often
seen as risk proxy, is weaker by nearly 1%. Bank of America strategists said the dollar-yen can reprice higher if oil prices remain elevated, noting Japan imports almost all of its petroleum, more than 90% of which comes from the Middle East.  US$ Index +0.6%,
GBPUSD -0.5%, EURUSD -0.45%, USDJPY -1%, AUDUSD -0.95%, NZDUSD -1.2%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.4%, USDSEK +0.6%, USDNOK +0.6%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.7%, Ethereum +2.8%.   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

 

  • Upgrades
    • AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $175
    • BXP (BXP) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $78
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) Raised to Buy at SWS
    • Comstock Resources (CRK) Raised to Hold at SWS; PT $25
    • DoorDash (DASH) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $260
    • Estee Lauder (EL) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $95
    • Evercore (EVR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $312
    • FMC Corp (FMC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $50
    • Moelis & Co (MC) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $68
    • Omnicom (OMC) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $80
    • Ventas (VTR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $72
  • Downgrades
    • Accenture (ACN) Cut to Buy at CFRA
    • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $21
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $45.40
    • Bright Horizons (BFAM) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $135
    • CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCCS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $10
    • Couchbase (BASE) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $24.50
      • Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $24.50
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $24.50
      • Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $24.50
    • Dow (DOW) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $22
    • Equifax (EFX) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $108
    • GMS (GMS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $95
    • Howard Hughes (HHH) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $76
    • KBR (KBR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Lavoro (LVRO) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $2.25
    • Lineage (LINE) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $50
    • XP Inc. (XP) Cut to Market Perform at Itau BBA; PT $21
  • Initiations
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $79
    • BrightSpring (BTSG) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $37
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $47
    • Choice Hotels (CHH) Reinstated Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $124
    • Churchill Downs (CHDN) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $116
    • DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) US Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $16
    • DraftKings (DKNG) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
    • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $282
    • Hormel (HRL) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $35
    • Host Hotels (HST) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $16
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $47
    • Linde (LIN) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $284
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $38
    • Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $60
    • NuScale Power (SMR) Rated New Neutral at Citi
    • Park Hotels (PK) Reinstated Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $10
    • Penn Entertainment Inc (PENN) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $50
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $62
    • Rush Street (RSI) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $14
    • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $117
    • Septerna (SEPN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $26
    • Soleno (SLNO) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $110
    • Sunstone Hotel (SHO) Reinstated Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $8
    • Tyson (TSN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $67
    • Vtex (VTEX) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $10
    • Wyndham Hotels (WH) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $101
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $109

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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