Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on June 25, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET Fed’s Powell speaks,
New Home Sales, Building Permits; 11:00ET SALT Caucus members will meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; 1:00ET 5-Year Auction

Highlights and News:  

  • Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy to meet today
  • Israel and Iran Both Claim Wins as Trump-Brokered Truce Holds
  • IRAN SAYS NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS ‘BADLY DAMAGED’ BY US: AP
  • TRUMP: I THINK WE’LL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN
  • ISRAEL DESIGNATES IRAN CENTRAL BANK AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATION
  • NATO ALLIES AGREE ON NEW DEFENSE SPENDING TARGET OF 5% OF GDP
  • Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez wedding to cost between $46-$56 million
  • War Truce Turns Focus to Where Iran Moved Its Uranium
  • Cuomo Concedes to Mamdani in NYC Primary Race

 

Global stocks steadied while the shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding, with both sides claiming victory in the war. The ceasefire has allowed Israel
to return to a sense of normality, with traffic, schools, and businesses resuming, and Middle East airspace disruptions cleared. Overnight, the Israeli military said it had identified two drones approaching, most likely from Iran, and they were intercepted
before entering the country’s territory. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said an historic victory had been achieved and Iran’s nuclear threat had been eliminated. Iranian President Pezeshkian also claimed victory, saying Israel had failed to achieve its goals,
while conceding that the damage done to nuclear infrastructure represent “great wounds to our homeland.” The location of Iran’s 409 kilograms of near-bomb-grade uranium remains unknown after the International Atomic Energy Agency lost track of it five days
into the conflict.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures fluctuate as risk sentiment is on the mend as Middle East tensions subside, though prospects for lasting peace remain unclear. Nasdaq futures outperform after closing
at an all-time high.  Trump said the Iranian nuclear sites are “completely destroyed,” dismissing news reports saying otherwise as “fake.”  Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said its nuclear installations were ‘badly damaged.’ White House Middle East Envoy
Steve Witkoff said he’s already speaking with Iran and that talks are promising. Witkoff also said that “we were very close to making a deal on Gaza.” US-Mexico trade talks are focusing on a possible quota system to ease tariffs on a certain volume of steel
imports, sources said. Traders are also awaiting a second day of testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Micron Technology shares edged up ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly results due after the closing bell. FedEx shares fell premarket after
it reported a worse-than-expected profit forecast for the quarter.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.35%, Russell 2000 flat, DJI flat.

In pre-market trading, Coinbase Global Inc. shares (COIN) are up 3.3% after Bernstein raised the target on it to $510. FedEx shares (FDX) fall 5.7% after its first-quarter
profit forecast missed analysts’ estimates and the parcel company said it wasn’t providing a profit outlook for the fiscal year due to uncertain global demand. Graphic Packaging (GPK) slips 1% as BNP Paribas Exane downgrades the stock amid lackluster demand
in the paper and packaging sector. Nvidia (NVDA) rises 0.9% after its price target was lifted to a Street high of $250 from $175 at Loop Capital. QXO Inc. shares (QXO) drop 6.3% as the building products distributor seeks to raise $2 billion in a share sale.
Reddit shares (RDDT) are up 3.5%, extending recent gains. Yum! Brands Inc. shares (YUM) are up 1.5% after JPMorgan upgraded the operator of such chains as KFC and Taco Bell to overweight from neutral.

European gauges edged lower as investors monitored geopolitical risks. The European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports, including on Boeing aircraft,
if Trump puts a baseline levy on the bloc’s goods as many expect. Meanwhile, Chinese firms are ramping up shipments to the UK to levels not seen in years. The Stoxx 600 reversed early moderate gains to trade near the lows of the day, with banks the biggest
laggards. Auto shares outperformed as data showed new-car registrations rose 1.9% last month from a year earlier. Delivery stocks are mixed after FedEx Corp. posted disappointing guidance. In London, Babcock International Group rallied 13% as it raised its
medium-term profit target and announced its first-ever share buyback. Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -0.4%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Banks -1.4%, Food & Bev -1.4%, Media -1.3%. Autos +1.2%, Aero & Defense +0.9%.

Shares in Asia climbed on optimism the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold, while tech shares got a boost after the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index rose 0.5%, adding to the previous session’s 2.3% rally. TSMC, Alibaba and Nintendo were among the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan led gains in the region.  Investors are hopeful the US will seal trade deals with major trading
partners. Chinese electric-vehicle stocks gain as the government plans to launch subsidies in counties and towns to boost sales from July to December. CSI 300 +1.4%, Hang Seng Index +1.2%, Taiwan +1.1%, Sensex +0.8%, Thailand +0.7%, Singapore +0.6%, Philippines
+0.5%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Kospi +0.15%, ASX 200 +0.05%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed after yields declined on Tuesday as Powell’s comments before House lawmakers boosted bets on the pace of rate cuts in 2025. Swap traders are
currently pricing in a 15% probability of a quarter-point cut next month, with expectations for at least two reductions by year-end. 10-year yield hovers around 4.30% (+1.5bp) after several Fed speakers stress patient approach to assess tariff impact on inflation.
2-year yield is lower by 2bps. $70 billion 5-year note auction today follows a good result for Tuesday’s 2-year new issue.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadied after falling in the previous session on improved risk appetite following a truce between Israel and Iran, while attention shifts to upcoming US economic
data. focus is now on first-quarter US GDP data due Thursday, which will offer insights into the pace of economic growth. On Friday, attention turns to the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation
gauge. Chinese smelters are boosting copper exports to LME warehouses amid a historic squeeze. At least 30,000 tons are set to be delivered in the coming weeks, with more probable if tightness continues, people familiar said. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver -0.2%,
Copper +0.7%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices recover somewhat following the biggest two-day decline since 2022 as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Investors
are awaiting US government data on domestic crude and fuel stockpiles due later in the day. OPEC is set for another crude supply boost despite a drop in prices following the Israel-Iran truce, RBC said. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline,
$3.21, is about 23 cents cheaper than this time last year, according to EIA. Analysts say plentiful supply is expected to keep prices down in the coming months even with turmoil in the Middle East. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas -0.1%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose for the first time this week as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel meant focus turned to month-end flows and upcoming US data.
Aussie$ remains stronger despite monthly inflation cooling faster than expected. Australia’s inflation slowed in May to 2.1% year on year, boosting the case for a rate cut as soon as next month. The yen leads G-10 losses. BOJ board members discussed faster-than-expected
inflation but backed keeping policy steady, a summary of last week’s meeting showed. Japan’s most hawkish member said it may be necessary to raise interest rates should inflation risks rise, even if economic uncertainty lingers. US$ Index +0.25%, GBPUSD -0.1%,
EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.6%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK +0.35%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum -1%.   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Ameren (AEE) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $100
    • Duke Energy (DUK) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $132
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $27
    • Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$8
    • Stellantis (STLA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $13.20
    • TMC the metals (TMC) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $11
    • Yum (YUM) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $162
  • Downgrades
    • GMS (GMS) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Interpublic (IPG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $27.50
    • NuScale Power (SMR) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Omnicom (OMC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $80
    • Parkland (PKI CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$44
    • Stora Enso (STERV FH) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $9.50
    • Triple Flag (TFPM CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$35
    • WEC Energy (WEC) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $100
  • Initiations
    • Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $44.30
    • ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $32
    • Autoliv (ALV) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $133
    • BioXcel (BTAI) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $66
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Hold at US Tiger Securities; PT $200
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $28
    • EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $21.40
    • EDP SA (EDP PL) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $47.20
    • Enel (ENEL IM) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $9.70
    • Flutter (FLUT) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $330
    • Lam Research (LRCX) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Nextdoor (KIND) Rated New Neutral at B Riley; PT $2
    • O-I Glass (OI) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $18
    • Real Brokerage (REAX) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $7
    • ServiceNow (NOW) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $1,150
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $59
    • Symbotic (SYM) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $50
    • Waystar (WAY) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed