Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Advance Goods Trade Balance, Retail Inventories, GDP, Personal Consumption. Core
PCE Price Index QoQ, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders, Jobless Claims,
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 8:45ET Fed’s Daly speaks
Fed’s Barkin speaks; 9:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 10:00ET Pending Home Sales; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity;
1:00ET 7-Year Auction; 1:15ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 7:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Iran’s supreme leader says country delivered “heavy slap” to US, in first remarks since ceasefire
• Iran Caused $3 Billion of Damage With Missile Strikes on Israel
• Iran Nuclear Program Suffered ‘Enormous Damage,’ Says U.N. Atomic Agency Chief – WSJ
• ERDOGAN: TRUMP READY FOR UKRAINE TALKS IN TURKEY IF PUTIN COMES
• BlackRock Plans to Offer 401(k) Fund With Private-Investment Allocation – WSJ
• Bessent said the US extended its debt-limit measures through July 24

Global stocks notched their second record high in three days as a report that Trump was planning to choose the next Federal Reserve chief early fueled fresh bets
on US rate cuts. EU leaders will decide today whether to direct the European Commission to pursue a swift trade deal with the US on terms favoring Washington or to push for a better deal. Meanwhile, Iranian officials are shifting focus from a ceasefire with
Israel to escalating an internal security crackdown, involving widespread arrests, executions, and military deployments, especially in the volatile Kurdish region. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says that the US hit its nuclear sites but couldn’t achieve
much, adding “any future aggression against Iran will come at a great cost.” Elsewhere, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s €46 billion package of tax breaks was approved by Germany’s lower house of parliament, paving the way for final ratification in the upper house
on July 11. The EU’s competition chief said the EU’s crackdown on Apple, Meta, and Google is not a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with the US. Japan’s chief trade negotiator said the country can’t accept the US’s 25% tariffs on cars, citing that Japanese
automakers produce far more cars in the US than they export to America.  

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures rise as robust earnings from memory-chip maker Micron fueled optimism around artificial intelligence while investors awaited a slew of economic data and Fed speakers.
Micron shares rise over 2% in premarket after the memory chipmaker posted third-quarter results and a fourth-quarter forecast that exceeded estimates. The S&P 500 is nearing a new high on tech gains, but a narrow market breadth raises correction risks. The
percentage of members trading above their 200-DMA hasn’t budged since May. Republicans are weighing whether to pull the “revenge tax” provision as the US nears a deal with European nations and other countries that impose a minimum tax on multinational corporations
as part of a global agreement.

Futures ahead of the bell/data: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Apple (AAPL) shares inch lower after its price target was cut at JPMorgan to $230 from $240 on the iPhone 17’s incremental lineup launch. General
Mills (GIS) rises 0.7% after RBC raised its recommendation to outperform from sector perform. Jefferies (JEF) shares slip 2.5% after reporting earnings that missed estimates, hurt by a slump in deal activities between March and May due to the market turmoil.
Microsoft (MSFT) edges up 0.4% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $530 from $482, citing upside from the company’s Azure cloud service. Trade Desk (TTD) falls 2.2% after Wells Fargo Securities cuts its rating on the stock to equal-weight from
overweight. Truist Financial Corp. shares (TFC) rise 1.5% after Citi raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, citing its balance sheet growth. Equinix (EQIX) falls over 4%, extending yesterday’s decline, as Stifel lowered the firm’s price target on Equinix
to $1,010 from $1,050 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company hosted its analyst day. 

European gauges edged higher, buoyed by signs that the Israel-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding and that European Union leaders were gearing up to set their position
for US trade tariff talks. The Stoxx 600 inches up in choppy trade, led by gains in mining, financial service and real estate. Household goods and auto sectors underperform. Swedish Hennes & Mauritz AB gained as much as 7.9% due to strong results driven by
cost control and demand, while Worldline SA shares rose 14% after a previous slump. Elsewhere, Shell Plc confirmed it has no intention of making an offer for BP Plc, having denied a report Wednesday that it was in active talks about acquiring its rival. Stoxx
600 +0.2%, DAX +0.5%, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Basic Resources +3%, Aero & Defense +1.6%, Financial Services +1.5%, Real Estate +0.8%.  Household Goods -0.9%, Autos -0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, lifted by technology shares after Nvidia climbed to a record high and Micron gave an upbeat forecast for the current quarter. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.9% to its highest level since September 2021. Japan led gains, closing at a five-month high, and Hong Kong shares saw their first loss in five sessions. Japanese defense names gained after NATO’s agreement to raise security
spending targets. Gauges in China eased, while South Korea underperformed. Bank of America and Citigroup have both raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2025, citing frontloaded demand. Holiday season orders may be fulfilled earlier, boosting
exports in the coming months.  Nikkei 225 +1.6%, Sensex +1.2%, Indonesia +1%, Singapore +0.3%, Taiwan +0.3%, Philippines +0.1%. Vietnam -0.1%, Thailand -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.1%, CS) 300 -0.35%, Hang Seng Index -0.6%, Kospi -0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer across the curve with gains led by the front-end, supported by a small bid in SOFR futures after a Wall Street Journal report that President
Donald Trump may fast-track his nomination for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. 10-year around 4.275% is 1bp lower on the day. The two-year yield is down 3 basis points at 3.755%, its lowest level in seven weeks. 2s10s and 5s30s spreads near Wednesday’s
highs. US session includes weekly jobless claims and 1Q GDP revision. Week’s coupon auction cycle concludes with $44 billion 7-year note sale, following unremarkable results for 2- and 5-year notes.

METALS: 

Gold advanced, supported by a weaker dollar, but has pared most of its gains as traders await clearer signals on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Focus shifts
to upcoming US inflation data for clues on the interest rate outlook. GDP data is due this morning and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday. Platinum hit its highest since 2014 on strong Chinese jewelry demand. A key one-day copper
price spread surged to the highest level in four years on the London Metal Exchange, placing fresh strains on buyers contending with a rapid decline in inventories. Outright copper prices also rallied strongly, with Goldman saying shortages will worsen. Spot
gold +0.1%, Silver +1%, Copper +3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied as traders remained cautious about the Iran-Israel ceasefire and Trump reaffirmed his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. Both benchmarks climbed
nearly 1% on Wednesday, recovering from early-week losses after data showed resilient US demand. US crude inventories dropped for the fifth straight week, shrinking by 5.84 million barrels to an 11-year seasonal low, according to US government data. China’s
oil demand may have peaked in 2023, with consumption falling 1.2% last year amid slowing growth and rising EV adoption, the Energy Institute said. The shift may accelerate the prospect of a global usage plateau. The market will now likely switch its attention
to an OPEC+ meeting planned for July 6 that will decide on production policy for August. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas -0.8%, RBOB +1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar sank to a three-year low on bets US rate cuts may come sooner than expected as President Trump increases pressure on Jerome Powell.
The WSJ reported he may name a replacement for the Fed chair as early as September, ahead of his formal departure in May next year. Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their winning streaks, approaching the highest levels of the year. The Swiss franc
firmed to a decade-high while the Japanese yen also strengthened. Cable is higher and set for its best run on a monthly basis since early 2021. Hong Kong intervened to defend its dollar peg for the first time since 2023. US$ Index -0.35%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD
+0.3%, USDJPY -0.6%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF -0.35%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -0.15%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Bitcoin -0.4%, Ethereum +0.4%.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• FactSet (FDS) Raised to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Forward Air (FWRD) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $29
• General Mills (GIS) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $63
• Helios Technologies (HLIO) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $40
• Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$56
• Penn Entertainment (PENN) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $1,280
• Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $55
• Downgrades
• Adaptimmune (ADAP) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Ascot Resources (AOT CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO
• Equinix (EQIX) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $850
• Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Magellan Aerospace (MAL CN) Cut to Sell at Paradigm Capital; PT C$16.30
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• New Fortress Energy (NFE) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $68
• Initiations
• Amcor (AMCR) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $10
• Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $45
• Amphenol (APH) Rated New Hold at KGI Securities; PT $99
• Arista Networks (ANET) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $115
• Bankwell Financial Group (BWFG) US Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $21
• Centrus Energy (LEU) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $148
• Cisco (CSCO) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $77
• Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Dell Technologies (DELL) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $75
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $30
• Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX CN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
• Haemonetics (HAE) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $87
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $44
• JBS (JBS) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $20
• Liberty Global (LBTYA) Re-Initiated Hold at Berenberg
• NRG Energy (NRG) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $197
• Nutanix (NTNX) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $95
• Provident Financial (PFS) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Redwire (RDW) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $16
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $57
• SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $25
• Solid Biosciences (SLDB) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $14
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Rated New Neutral at Arete; PT $203.80
• Unity Software (U) Reinstated Underperform at BofA; PT $15

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke