Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on June 30, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:30ET Scott Bessent speaks on Bloomberg TV; 9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10:00ET Dallas Fed
Manf. Activity, Fed’s Bostic speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Canada rescinds digital services tax to advance stalled US trade talks
  • EU Spokesman: European Digital Services Act Not On The Table At Trade Talks With US
  • Senate expected to take lengthy vote series today on Big, Beautiful Bill
  • Israel is seeking normalization with Syria and Lebanon, according to Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar
  • Trump: Would Take Sanctions Off Iran If They Can Be Peaceful – Fox
  • CHINA TO OFFER EXTRA TAX RELIEF FOR OVERSEAS INVESTORS
  • IRAN SAYS DISCUSSIONS WITH UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE ONGOING
  • Iran said it doubts the ceasefire with Israel will last, and warned of a firm response to any aggression
  • NYC Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani told NBC that billionaires shouldn’t exist

 

Global stocks held just below recent record highs as the revival of US/Canada trade talks helped risk sentiment. Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax on
technology companies in a move to restart trade talks with the US. French finance minister Eric Lombard said the European Union can clinch some form of a trade agreement with the US before a July 9 deadline. The trade deal signed between President Trump and
British PM Keir Starmer lowering some tariffs on imports from Britain has come into effect. British car manufacturers will now be able to export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff from 27.5%, while the current 10% tariffs were fully removed for goods like
aircraft engines and aircraft parts. Indonesia has offered the United States the chance to jointly invest in a critical minerals project as part of its tariff negotiations. The US is nearing agreements with Taiwan and Indonesia, and pacts with Vietnam and
South Korea are also possible, a source said. Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan’s cars as talks between the two nations continued. Meanwhile, Israel has made a full 180 on Syria’s leader Jolani and is now pursuing peace and normalization
with Damascus.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures gained as investors welcome signs of progress in trade negotiations between the Trump administration and other countries. Shares of technology heavyweights rose premarket
after Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting US tech firms, just hours before it was due to take effect. Investors are also monitoring the progress of the huge US tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs
it may not make it by Trump’s preferred July 4 deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune faces opposition from around eight Republican senators who have expressed opposition to portions of it.  The Senate will kick off a marathon voting session on dozens
of amendments this morning. Citigroup analysts said the latest text of the Senate bill looks “incrementally negative for wind.” A holiday on Friday means US jobs data will come a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June and a rising jobless
rate reaching almost a year high at 4.3%. A slowdown in the US job market will weigh on the S&P 500, offsetting any positive impact from the Fed’s interest rate cuts, according to JPMorgan strategists.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.5%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) is the only stock among Magnificent 7 companies falling, down 0.8%, as President Trump’s landmark budget bill passed a key senate
hurdle over the weekend. The bill cuts electric vehicle and other clean energy credits. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) falls 4% after JPMorgan starts coverage with an underweight recommendation due a valuation pushed beyond the broker’s “comfort zone.” Disney
(DIS) climbs 2% after Jefferies upgraded it’s rating to buy. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) rises about 2%, gaining with other US banks after the industry’s biggest names comfortably cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test late Friday, setting the stage
for lenders to boost buybacks and dividends for shareholders. Juniper Networks (JNPR) gains 8.4% and HP Enterprise (HPE) rises 8% after the Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $13 billion takeover of Juniper Networks.
Moderna (MRNA) climbs 5% after saying its experimental flu shot met its goal in a late-stage trial, clearing the path for its broader strategy of selling combination vaccines. Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares are up 7.0% after Stifel upgraded the software company
to buy from hold as analyst Brad Reback says acceleration for the firm’s Cloud business appear sustainable. Oracle said they signed multiple large cloud services agreements, including one that is expected to contribute more than $30B.

European gauges erase early gains as investors watched for progress on trade talks ahead of Trump’s July 9 deadline. The Stoxx 600 is slightly lower with auto, bank
and mining shares leading the broader market lower. Renewable energy stocks including Vestas Wind Systems A/S and Orsted AS dropped on concerns that the latest version of the US tax bill would phase out key tax incentives for wind and solar projects more aggressively.
German retail sales unexpectedly fell by 1.6% in May compared with the previous month, statistics office data showed. Britain’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the first quarter. ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos says the world is facing “brutal
uncertainty” and that market valuations are very high at the moment. Stoxx 600 -0.05%, DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Autos +1%, Banks -0.7%, Basic Resources -0.7%, Energy -0.4%. Aero % Defense +1%, Personal Goods +0.8%, Real Estate +0.6%, Retail +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, reversing early gains, as losses widened in Hong Kong and Taiwan in late trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended lower by 0.2%,
with TSMC, Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags. Tech shares weighed on the regional benchmark after making advances last week, as investors took some money off the table ahead of a deadline for trade talks with the US next week. Shares fell more than 1%
in Taiwan amid equity outflows and as the local currency slumped in a sudden move toward the end of trading. Chinese semiconductor-related shares advance after the government called for greater technology self-sufficiency. China’s economy showed signs of improvement
in June, with factory activity and construction reaching their strongest month of the second quarter, despite deflationary pressures and weak employment. The mixed picture of the economy has left the market unsure of when policymakers might step up stimulus
efforts.  Taiwan -1.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Philippines -0.7%, Sensex -0.5%, Singapore -0.05%. ASX 200 +0.3%, Vietnam +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Indonesia +0.4%, Kospi +0.5%, Thailand +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +.08%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down ~2 bps to 4.25%. Yields are 2bp-3bp richer across tenors with curve spreads little changed. Julius Baer’s chief
economist anticipates a series of 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in October that would lower the Fed funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.5% by March 2026. US data due this holiday-shortened week for US traders include ISM Manufacturing,
job openings, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims and factory orders.

 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher following two consecutive weekly declines. Bullion is supported by a dip in the dollar, amid ongoing Senate negotiations over President Trump’s
$4.5 trillion tax package and US trade talks. Americans are offloading gold after the recent rally, with a proxy for retail demand tumbling more than 70% in May from the prior year. Meanwhile, Asian counterparts are showing no letup in gold purchases.  Spot
gold +0.3%, Silver -0.1%, Copper -0.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices continue to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which led to a 12% slide last week.  OPEC+ members are ready to consider
another 411,000 barrel-a-day increase for August, which would be the fourth month in a row of a bumper hike, triple the initially planned volumes. Though Iran remains skeptical the US-brokered ceasefire will last, President Trump suggested he might back sanctions
relief for the Islamic Republic “if they can be peaceful.” Oil is trading near where it started before Israel first attacked Iran on June 13, with futures on track for a 8% loss this quarter. WTI -0.2%, Brent -0.05%, US Nat Gas -4.5%, RBOB +0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar dipped to near three-year lows on the prospect of this week’s US jobs data ushering in an earlier Fed rate cut. The dollar has depreciated
more at this point in the year than in any prior year since the U.S. adopted a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. The euro eases a bit after climbing more than 1% last week to its highest levels since 2021 against a broadly weak dollar. The Taiwan dollar
slumped more than 2% against the greenback, fueling speculation the central bank intervened to curb its strength, similar to a move last week. Sterling eased, trimming some of last week’s gains, with focus on positioning amid quarter-end flows. The loonie
inched higher after Canada said it would resume trade talks with the US and is up a fifth straight month for the first time since 2020. The yen edges higher after Trump characterized trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair.  US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD
-0.2%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.02%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.25%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +1.3%.   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Con Edison (ED) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $107
    • Disney (DIS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $144
    • Kratos (KTOS) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $52
    • Linde (LIN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $535
    • Medtronic (MDT) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Oracle (ORCL) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $250
    • Vor BioPharma (VOR) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $3
    • Whirlpool (WHR) Raised to Buy at Longbow; PT $145
  • Downgrades
    • Tronox (TROX) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $3
  • Initiations
    • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $40
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $301
    • American Healthcare REIT (AHR) US Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $42
    • Amrize (AMRZ SW) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $64
    • Aytu BioPharma (AYTU) Rated New Buy at Ascendiant Capital Markets
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM CN) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) US Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $14
    • Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $155
      • Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $230
      • Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $250
      • Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $247
      • Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
      • Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $215
      • Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $80
      • Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT $147
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $83
    • CorMedix (CRMD) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $20
    • Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $80
    • Ecarx Holdings (ECX) Rated New Strong Buy at Huachuang; PT $2.51
    • Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $42
    • First Busey (BUSE) Rated New Market Perform at Hovde Group
    • Leonardo DRS (DRS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $49
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Outperform at GuoSen; PT $15.25
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $29
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $100
    • Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
    • Vizsla Royalties (VROY CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$4
    • Waystar (WAY) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $48
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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