Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 1, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:30ET ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, BOE’s Bailey, BOJ’s Ueda and BOK’s Rhee speak at ECB
Forum; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, ISM Employment, Construction Spending, JOLTS Job Openings, Dallas Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

  • US Senate overwhelmingly strikes AI regulation ban from Trump mega bill
  • Ukrainian drones strike further and further inside Russia
  • Trump suggests DOGE look at subsidies for Musk’s companies to save money
  • China ready to discuss tariffs and subsidies with US at WTO
  • EU to Accept Trump Universal Tariff But Seeks Key Exemptions
  • Trump: Expects ceasefire in Gaza sometime next week

 

Global stocks edged up ahead of a vote over President Trump’s landmark tax and spending legislation. The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with
the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports but wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors. China is ready to have discussions about trade policies, including tariffs and subsidies, a senior delegate at China’s mission to the
WTO said. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Japan, citing the country’s unwillingness to accept US rice exports, despite Japan’s massive rice shortage. On the macroeconomic front, new data from the Bank of Japan’s tankan index of business sentiment and
a Chinese factory activity gauge suggested that the region’s largest economies were likely managing the tariff challenges for the time being. Canada markets are closed for Canada Day holiday.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures ease as a vote on the comprehensive tax-cut and spending bill was anticipated during the Asian trading session, but discussions continue over a long series of amendments
proposed by Republicans and Democrats. Senate Republican leaders are struggling to gather enough votes to pass Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill, with eight major Republican holdouts threatening to derail the legislation. Shares in Tesla fell around
5% in pre-market trading after Trump suggested DOGE should review the subsidies given to the companies of CEO Elon Musk. Meanwhile, Nvidia is on the verge of becoming the most valuable company in history, as it edges towards a $4 trillion market capitalization.
June manufacturing activity surveys, May job openings data as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at an ECB forum later in the day will be parsed for clues on US monetary policy outlook.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.5%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) falls 4% after President Trump lashed out at Elon Musk, accusing the Tesla and SpaceX chief executive officer of benefiting excessively
from government subsidies for electric vehicles. AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV) falls 5% after the defense company announced proposed underwritten public offerings of $750m worth of shares of its common stock and $600m aggregate principal amount of its convertible
senior notes due 2030. Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) drops 11% after the company offered around 24.2 million shares, raising around $200 million. Greif (GEF) climbs 1.6% after agreeing to sell its containerboard business to Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
for $1.8b in cash. MSC Industrial (MSM) rises 3% after the distributor of metalworking products posted adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat estimates. Sweetgreen (SG) drops 3% as TD Cowen downgrades to hold. Wolfspeed (WOLF) surges 73%
after the chipmaker said it would file for bankruptcy to enact a creditor-backed plan to slash $4.6 billion in debt. US-listed Macau casino operators are trading higher after monthly gaming revenue for the world’s biggest gambling hub exceeded analyst expectations
in June. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +3.9%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +4%.

 

European gauges are lower as investors monitored signs of a potential EU-US trade agreement. The Stoxx 600 is near lows of the day, led by declines in media shares,
with Publicis Groupe SA and Universal Music Group NV leading losses. Standard Chartered Plc fell as much as 2.9%, with the lender facing a $2.7 billion lawsuit from liquidators. UK homebuilders underperform after data showed house prices fell the most in more
than two years in June.  Britain’s factory downturn showed signs of easing and business optimism rose to the highest in four months, PMI data showed. UK factory activity declined at its slowest pace since January, with the manufacturing purchasing managers’
index rising to 47.7 in June. Euro-area inflation settled at the European Central Bank’s target in June, with consumer prices rising 2% from a year ago. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.5%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Aero & Defense -1.6%, Media -1.5%, Autos -1.2%,
Industrials and Banks -1%. Utilities +1.1%, Retail +0.9%.

Shares in Asia advanced, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 0.4%. Shares of TSMC, Hon Hai and Reliance Industries contributed the most to the benchmark’s gains.
Taiwanese stocks jumped on a tech rally and bounce in the local currency. Holding companies helped drive gains in Korea on optimism that legal revisions will be approved this week to help speed corporate reforms. Stocks in Japan snapped a five-day winning
streak as a stronger yen and fresh threats from Trump clouded expectations for progress in trade negotiations. Japan’s manufacturing sector returned to growth for the first time in over a year, but persistent demand weakness underlined the challenging trade
outlook for Asia’s export-driven economies. Factory activity in South Korea contracted for the fifth straight month though the pace of decline eased due to companies’ relief over a snap presidential election in June. India was a significant outlier in the
region last month, as activity accelerated to a 14-month high. Hong Kong’s stock market was closed for a holiday. Thailand +1.9%, Taiwan +1.3%, Philippines +0.9%, Singapore +0.6%, Kospi +0.6%, CSI 300 +0.2%, Vietnam +0.1%, Sensex +0.1%. ASX 200 was flat. Indonesia
-0.2%, Topix -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -1.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US Treasuries extend Monday’s late rally, with the 10-year yield declining 2 basis points to 4.20% as investors increased wagers on the scale of potential Federal
Reserve interest rate cuts this year. 2-year yield is roughly flat with 2s10s curve flatter by ~2bps. Swaps imply at least two quarter-points of monetary easing by the end of the year, with an about 65% chance of a third cut by December. Gilts got a boost
after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said they are looking at the possibility of offloading fewer government bonds over the coming year. Among Tuesday’s events are a global monetary policy panel in Sintra that includes Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

 

METALS: 

Gold gains over 1% to around $3,350 an ounce on a weaker dollar and persistent safe-haven demand on concerns about the US fiscal outlook. Gold is up for the second
consecutive session despite the market shifting into risk-on mode. While economists are widely expecting Trump’s tariffs to drive inflation higher, subdued price growth so far has cast doubt on that view. Markets are also focused on a vote over Trump’s sweeping
tax-cut and spending bill, adding to the already uncertain market environment. Spot gold +1.4%, Silver +0.8%, Copper +1.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices edge higher as markets waited for clarity on production policy from the world’s leading producers this weekend. Saudi Arabia is exporting crude at the
fastest rate in over a year as the OPEC+ leader presses on with a strategy to recoup its share of global oil markets. Morgan Stanley analysts expect Brent futures to retrace to around $60 by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical
risk abating.   WTI +1%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas -0.8%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slid, trading near multi-year lows after wrapping up its worst first-half performance since 1973. Perceived safe-haven assets outperform,
as investors monitor progress on trade talks and wrangling in Washington over President Trump’s tax bill. The yen is leading gains against the greenback among G-10 currencies, with the Swiss franc not far behind. The Taiwan dollar surged more than 2% in another
day of volatility. The euro heads for a ninth straight day of gains, the best streak since October 2004. Data showed euro-area inflation settled at the ECB’s target in June, strengthening arguments to press pause on a year-long campaign of interest-rate cuts.
Vice President Luis de Guindos said an advance in the euro beyond $1.20 could prove tricky for policymakers, but current levels aren’t cause for concern. US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.9%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF -0.6%,
USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK -0.5%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum -2.2%.   

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Raised to Overweight at Evercore ISI; PT $75
    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$150
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $112
    • Cintas (CTAS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $221
    • Hasbro (HAS) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $85
    • Hyatt (H) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $165
    • Ionis Pharma (IONS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $57
    • Nuvalent (NUVL) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $105
    • Oshkosh (OSK) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $131
    • Ovintiv (OVV) Raised to Buy at Goldman
    • Ryder (R) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $183
    • SkyWest (SKYW) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $120
  • Downgrades
    • Avino Silver (ASM CN) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$4.77
    • Cantaloupe (CTLP) Cut to Underperform at Barrington Research
    • Coterra Energy (CTRA) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Hecla Mining (HL) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $6
    • Inmune Bio (INMB) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
      • Cut to Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $2
      • Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • KB Home (KBH) Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $49
    • Lineage (LINE) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Southern Copper (SCCO) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $105
    • Sweetgreen (SG) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $15
    • Textron (TXT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $85
  • Initiations
    • Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Rated New Hold at Jefferies
    • Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) Resumed Outperform at Raymond James
    • Carrier Global (CARR) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $90
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $16
    • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) Resumed Outperform at Raymond James; PT $9
    • CoreCivic (CXW) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $28
    • Crexendo (CXDO) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $8
    • Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $14
    • Geo Group (GEO) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $30
    • Hippo Holdings (HIPO) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $35
    • Idexx Labs (IDXX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $625
    • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $190
    • Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at CICC; PT $42
    • MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $210
    • New Fortress Energy (NFE) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $8.50
    • Omada Health (OMDA) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $23
      • Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $21
      • Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $27
      • Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $21
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $20
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $29
    • Porch Group (PRCH) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $15
    • QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $30
    • Rollins (ROL) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $70
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $33
    • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $30
    • Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $25
    • Verona Pharma (VRP LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $170

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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