Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  

Highlights and News:  

• EU SEES ‘PROGRESS’ IN TALKS WITH US ON TRADE DEAL: SPOKESMAN
• US shifts tariff goal posts: Trump said some levies could range in value from “maybe 60% or 70%”
• BESSENT: SEVERAL TRADE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN NEXT 48 HOURS
• Trump said countries aligning with BRICS’ “Anti-American policies” would face an additional 10% tariff
• Tesla slides 7% as Musk’s ‘America Party’ reignites investor concerns
• Texas Flood Disaster: 81 Dead as Search Intensifies
• Netanyahu to meet Trump at White House Today as Israel, Hamas discuss ceasefire
• TikTok reportedly plans new app for US users
• Bessent: There are things for us to do together if China wants to do it beyond trade – CNBC

Global stocks retreated at the start of the week as US trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration. President Trump announced on
Sunday that the White House is nearing completion of multiple trade agreements in the coming days and will inform other nations of increased tariff rates by July 9, with the new rates scheduled to take effect on August 1. It is still not clear if the new deadline
applied to all trading partners or just some. Trump said those aligning with the BRICS group of nations will face an additional 10% levy. Kevin Hassett told CBS News that framework agreements already reached with Britain and Vietnam offered guidelines for
other countries. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut its rates by a quarter point to 3.60% at a meeting on Tuesday. New Zealand’s central bank meets on Wednesday and is likely to hold rates at 3.25%. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is
due to meet with President Trump at the White House today, while Israeli officials hold indirect talks with Hamas. Trump said on Sunday there was a good chance a ceasefire deal could be reached this week.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures fell but are well off the overnight lows with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. “President Trump’s going to
be sending letters to some of our trading partners today, saying that if you don’t move things along, then on August 1 you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN. Trump said some levies could range in value
from “maybe 60% or 70%.” Bessent said the administration was focused on 18 important trading partners that account for 95% of the US trade deficit. But he said there had been “a lot of foot-dragging” among countries in finalizing trade deals. Tesla fell over
6% in premarket trading after Elon Musk revealed plans to form a new US political party, intensifying his ongoing dispute with Trump. Online spending is expected to surge to $23.8 billion across US retailers during a 96-hour Amazon Prime Day event this week,
according to an Adobe Analytics. Sales from July 8 to 11 are projected to rise 28.4% compared with the same period last year, the report said.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) is the biggest drag among Magnificent 7 stocks, falling 6%, as President Trump slams Elon Musk’s bid to form a new political party.
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) gains 20% after saying the Phase 2 Apex part A trial of APG777 in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis met all primary and key secondary endpoints. Cogent Biosciences (COGT) rises 23% after announcing positive top-line
results from the Summit trial of bezuclastinib in patients with non-advanced systemic mastocytosis. Geo Group (GEO) gains 6% and CoreCivic (CXW) climbs 4% after the Senate and House of Representatives approved Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill that will
add billions of dollars for immigrant detention centers. MGM Resorts International (MGM) slips 1.8% after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of with a recommendation of sell due to a volatile Las Vegas market. Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) rises 4.7% after
Jefferies upgraded its recommendation on the renewable energy equipment company to buy. WNS Holdings Ltd. (WNS) soars 14% after France’s Capgemini SE plans to acquire IT outsourcing company for $3.3 billion in cash. Coreweave (CRWV) is down ~3% after announcing
it will acquire Core Scientific (CORZ -10%) in all-stock deal.

European gauges are higher, with the DAX outperforming after German industrial production rose more than expected in May. German industrial production rose 1.2% in
May, thanks to the automotive industry and energy production, the federal statistics office said. The EU is still working towards a July 9 deadline for a US trade deal after Trump and Von Der Leyen spoke by phone on Sunday. The Stoxx 600 is holding near highs
of the day as real estate shares led gains, while energy shares were dragged lower by Shell Plc’s weaker-than-expected trading update. Societe Generale SA gains over 3.5% as analysts at Barclays and BofA were upbeat on the stock ahead of results. Medtech stocks
in the region pared an earlier drop driven by China hitting back at the European Union’s restrictions on its medical device makers. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Real Estate +1.4%, Aero & Defense +1%, Banks +1%, Travel & Leisure +1%,
Financial Services +1%. Energy -1.2%, Utilities -0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mixed as investors remained on edge ahead of the deadline for President Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped
0.7%, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Japan underperformed. Stocks dropped in Malaysia and Thailand after news that the US plans to restrict shipments of AI chips to these nations. Thailand, trying to avert
a 36% tariff, is now offering greater market access for US farm and industrial goods and more purchases of US energy and Boeing jets. India and the United States are likely to make a final decision on a mini trade deal in the next 24 to 48 hours, local Indian
news reported on Sunday, with average tariffs of 10% on Indian goods shipped to the US. Shares of Chinese medical equipment makers gain on the mainland as the nation imposes some reciprocal curbs on medical-device procurement for companies based in the EU.
Topix -0.6%, Taiwan -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.2%, Hang Seng Index -01%, Sensex was flat. Kospi +0.2%, Thailand +0.3%, Singapore +0.4%, Philippines +0.5%, Indonesia +0.5%, Vietnam +1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed with the yield curve steeper after US officials signaled that trading partners will have until Aug. 1 before tariffs kick in. Pivoting around
a little-changed 5-year sector, long-end yields are higher ahead of this week’s 10- and 30-year auctions. Front-end yields are about 1bp richer on the day with long-end tenors cheaper by ~3bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp-3bp. 10-year near 4.365%
is 1.5bp higher on the day. Traders have now priced out a July rate cut, with September odds standing at 66%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. It is a relatively quiet week for Fed speakers with only two district presidents on the docket, while economic
data is also sparse. Japan’s 30-year yield surged 10 basis points to 2.96% on concerns that the outcome of this month’s upper house election may result in bigger fiscal spending.

METALS: 

Gold fell as the dollar rose at the start of a potentially volatile week that will see US trading partners rush to finalize deals with the Trump administration ahead
of a July 9 tariff deadline. Spot gold dropped below $3,300 per ounce for the first time since June 30, falling over 1% on the day.  With the US still in the process of negotiating deals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated there may be some breathing
room for talks since the levies won’t take effect until Aug. 1.  Spot gold -0.9%, Silver -1.7%, Copper -2.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fluctuated after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to raise production by a larger-than-expected 548,000 barrels per day in August. The group also warned that it
could hike by a similar amount in September, leaving analysts with the impression it was trying to squeeze lower margin producers and particularly those pulling oil from US shale. Brent crude futures erase losses, trading above $68/bbl even after OPEC+’s supply
increase surprise. The OPEC+ producers are expected in August to agree on another super hike in production for September that would complete the unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) output cuts, Goldman Sachs said. WTI -0.05%, Brent +0.55%, US
Nat Gas -3.2%, RBOB +0.7%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar gained broadly hitting its strongest in more than a week as a looming deadline on US trade restrictions chilled demand for riskier
currencies, while speculation that the cut-off date for negotiations may be extended again offered an additional boost to the US currency. EM currencies slump, with the South African rand and Indian rupee among the session’s laggards after President Trump
said any country aligning with BRICS’ “Anti-American policies” would face an additional 10% tariff. The yen weakens while Aussie and kiwi underperform G-10 peers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said letters being sent to trading partners this week
aren’t the final word on immediate tariff rates; Levies will kick in on Aug. 1, giving countries without an agreement time to bring offers to make a deal.  US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.45%, USDJPY +0.75%, AUDUSD -0.8%, NZDUSD -1%, USDCHF +0.4%,
USDCAD +0.35%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.2%, Ethereum +0.1%.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alliant Energy (LNT) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $68
• Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $375
• BioXcel (BTAI) Raised to Buy at RX Securities; PT $4
• CACI (CACI) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• CES Energy (CEU CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$10.50
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $205
• Equity Residential (EQR) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• FedEx (FDX) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $270
• Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $21
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Raised to Buy at SinoPac; PT $89
• Meta (META) Raised to Hold at Needham
• Phibro Animal (PAHC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $35
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $256
• Shoals Technologies (SHLS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $7.20
• Surge Energy (SGY CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$8
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Trican Well Service (TCW CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• UDR (UDR) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• UPS (UPS) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $100
• Valley National (VLY) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11
• Whitecap Resources (WCP CN) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Downgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• ASGN (ASGN) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $42
• BCE (BCE CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$33
• Chubb (CB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $298
• CMS Energy (CMS) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $505
• Essent (ESNT) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $67
• Genco Shipping (GNK) Cut to Hold at DNB Carnegie; PT $14.90
• Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$107
• MDA Space (MDA CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$39
• MP Materials (MP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $33
• Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• NMI Holdings (NMIH) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $43
• NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• NV5 (NVEE) Cut to Hold at Maxim
• Olo Inc. (OLO) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $10.25
• Cut to Hold at Lake Street; PT $10.25
• PNC Financial (PNC) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Progressive (PGR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $290
• Radian (RDN) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $38
• Rio Tinto (RIO LN) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $62
• Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$35
• Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Theratechnologies (TH CN) Cut to Hold at Jones
• Travelers (TRV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $274
• Two Harbors (TWO) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• Arista Networks (ANET) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Ategrity Specialty (ASIC) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $26
• Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $30
• Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $27
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $29
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $26
• Benitec Biopharma (BNTC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Bioventus (BVS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $12
• Blue Owl Technology Fina (OTF) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $17
• Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) Reinstated Outperform at Macquarie; PT $37
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $36
• Cheniere Energy (LNG) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $290
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $40
• Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $38
• Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $40
• Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $40
• Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $39
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $40
• Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $34
• Conavi Medical Corp (CNVI CN) Rated New Buy at Bloom Burton & Co; PT C$1
• CyberArk (CYBR) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $585
• Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane
• Emerson Electric (EMR) Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT $151.30
• Energy Transfer (ET) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $23.34
• Enterprise Products (EPD) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
• EQT Corp (EQT) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $65
• Exchange Income (EIF CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$73
• J M Smucker (SJM) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT $130
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $52
• LendingClub (LC) Rated New Market Perform at Citizens
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $34
• Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $74
• NRG Energy (NRG) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $188.50
• Okta (OKTA) Rated New Sell at Arete; PT $83
• Oneok (OKE) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
• Prairie Operating (PROP) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $102
• PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Pulse Biosciences (PLSE) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $22
• Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Underperform at BofA; PT $48
• Rhythm Pharma (RYTM) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $88
• Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Buy at China Merchants; PT $126
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $381
• SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Sell at Arete; PT $16
• Sandisk (SNDK) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $60
• Targa Resources (TRGP) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
• Telix Pharma (TLX AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $23
• Venture Global (VG) Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $21
• Voyager Technologies (VOYG) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $50
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $45
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $52
• Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $50
• Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $50
• Williams Cos (WMB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $122

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke