Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 8, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  11:00ET NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations; 1:00ET 3-year note auction; 3:00ET Consumer
Credit

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump suggested he’s still open to tariff negotiations and that the Aug. 1 deadline was “not 100% firm”
  • Japan, South Korea seek to negotiate with the US to soften tariff blow before August deadline
  • EU sources said the bloc was close to a trade agreement with the US
  • Trump promised Zelensky to immediately send 10 Patriot missiles, help find additional supply channels
  • Apple’s AI Chief Leaves for Meta
  • Texas flood death toll surpassed 100 as the search continues for victims

 

Global stocks edged higher as investors took in stride the latest twist in President Trump’s tariff roll-out. On Monday, Trump informed 14 nations that significantly
increased tariffs, ranging from 25% to 40%, would take effect on August 1, escalating the trade war he initiated in April. The total number of letters could top 100 in the coming days. By and large, the rates in Monday’s letter closely tracked what Trump had
promised back in April, with a few exceptions. Sources said the European Union will not be receiving a letter setting out higher tariffs and that a trade deal could be reached by Wednesday. Meanwhile, China has cautioned the Trump administration against escalating
trade tensions and vowed to retaliate against countries that strike deals with the US to exclude it from supply chains. Cambodia hailed as a big success a reduction in the US tariff rate from 49% to 36% and said it was seeking to negotiate a further reduction.
A closely watched negotiation is with India, which reportedly said it has made its final offer and said a deal is in Trump’s hands. Japan’s PM Ishiba said he’ll keep pushing for a deal as soon as possible, while South Korea vowed to step up talks.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures inch up as investors looked past Trump’s latest tariff offensive, cautiously optimistic that continued negotiations with key trading partners could prevent a full-scale
trade war. Fewer stocks are setting new highs alongside the S&P 500 Index, an unwelcome sign for traders worried about the market’s increasing concentration in megacap technology companies. Goldman Sachs raised its return forecasts for the S&P 500, citing
expectations of US interest rate cuts and continued fundamental strength of major large-cap stocks as key drivers of its positive outlook. Apple’s top AI models executive Ruoming Pang is leaving for Meta’s new superintelligence group, sources said. Exxon said
second-quarter earnings may take a hit of about $1.5 billion due to lower oil prices. Trump called for new rules to restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Clean energy stocks including Enphase Energy (ENPH -3%) and SolarEdge (SEDG -67) fall after President Donald Trump called for new rules that
would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects. Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) rises about 1% after TD Cowen analysts raised the recommendation on the credit-card issuer to buy from hold. Ciena (CIEN) falls 3% as Morgan Stanley cuts
to underweight, citing a lack of margin upside in the near term. Circle Internet (CRCL) slips about 2% after the stablecoin issuer was initiated with a second sell-equivalent rating, this time at Mizuho. Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.5% as Guggenheim Securities cut
to sell from neutral citing to near-term OpenAI optimization risk. Merit Medical Systems Inc. (MMSI) rises 2% after the catheter maker reported preliminary 2Q revenue that topped estimates and named a veteran of Medtronic as its next CEO.

European gauges fluctuate as EU negotiators rushed to conclude a preliminary trade deal with the US to avoid a spike in tariffs. The EU is seeking an exemption from
the 10% rate for certain key products including aircraft, aircraft parts as well as wine and spirits. Beverage company stocks climbed, with Remy Cointreau gaining 4% and Pernod Ricard SA rising 3.6%. Jewelry and apparel shares were under pressure after Trump
outlined plans to impose tariffs on goods from key supplier countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia. Among other individual stocks, Entain Plc was up 3.5% after Bank of America Global Research raised its recommendation to buy, citing a bullish
view on BetMGM and enduring strength of iGaming trends.  German exports fell a more-than-expected 1.4% in May from the previous month. The value of shipments to the US plunged to their lowest level in more than three years. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX +0.15%, CAC
-0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Travel & Leisure +0.7%, Basic Resources +0.6%, Financial Services +0.5%. Real Estate -1.1%, Retail -0.8%, Food & Bev -0.8%.

Shares in Asia advanced as investors focused on room for further trade negotiations after Trump suggested he’s still open to tariff negotiations and that the Aug. 1
deadline for implementation was “not 100% firm.”  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with SK Hynix and Hitachi providing the biggest lift while BHP Group and Nintendo weighed on performance.  Hong Kong shares rose, helped by a rebound in e-commerce giants
Meituan and Alibaba. South Korean financial stocks gained on hopes the sector’s upcoming earnings may deliver a positive surprise. Chinese solar stocks ended higher on renewed speculation over consolidation and government support. Goods exported to the US
from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia are now set to face 25% tariffs starting Aug. 1. Indonesia will be hit with a 32% levy, Bangladesh a 35% duty, Cambodia and Thailand are set for 36% tariff rate, Laos and Myanmar will face a 40% duty.
Kospi +1.8%, Hang Seng Index +1.1%, Vietnam +1%, CSI 300 +0.8%, Singapore +0.4%, Sensex +0.3%, Nikkei 225 +0.25%, Philippines +0.1%, Indonesia +0.05%, ASX 200 was ~flat. Taiwan -0.3%, Thailand -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries extend Monday’s curve-steepening selloff, with long-end yields cheaper by nearly 4bp on the day, as investors set up for the first of this week’s 3-, 10-
and 30-year auctions. In Asia, long-end-led selloff resumed as investors look to Japan’s fiscal outlook and potential increased debt sales. US yields are 1bp-4bp higher across tenors with 2s10s curve steeper by more than 2bp, 5s30s by more than 1bp. 10-year
near 4.415% is near session high. Treasury auction cycle begins with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold prices dipped as President Trump signaled openness to further negotiations despite introducing new trade tariffs on multiple nations.  Investors are gearing
up for more repercussions as the White House plans to raise tariffs on countries that fail to negotiate agreements with the US. However, Trump’s decision to postpone the new rates until August 1 gives affected nations an additional three weeks to secure a
deal. Investors await minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, due on Wednesday, for more clues into the bank’s policy outlook. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver -0.2%, Copper +0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Crude oil prices eased after gaining nearly 2% on Monday. Russia’s crude shipments fell to the lowest since February as refinery runs are rising faster than production,
eating into exports. Supply worries emerged after Yemen-based rebel group launched fresh attacks on ships in the Red Sea, threatening vital trade corridors. WTI -0.2%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas +0.7%, RBOB +0.6%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell versus most major peers as investors mulled how the latest tariffs would affect the US economy and those of its trading partners. 
The euro nudged higher as the European Union seeks to conclude a preliminary trade deal with the US this week that would allow it to lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond an Aug. 1 deadline as they negotiate a permanent agreement. The yen slid to a two-week low
on 25% duties facing Japanese goods. The Aussie dollar surged against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy rates unchanged, contrary to expectations for a cut. Governor Michele Bullock said the decision was about the timing of a move,
rather than the direction.  US$ Index +0.02%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.75%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.8%, Ethereum +1.7% at 8:00ET.    

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Bank OZK (OZK) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $58
    • Cadence Bank (CADE) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $42
    • Capital One (COF) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen
    • Cullen/Frost (CFR) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $150
    • First Interstate Banc (FIBK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $32
    • General Dynamics (GD) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
    • KeyCorp (KEY) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $22
    • National Vision (EYE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $30
    • Parsons (PSN) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $90
    • PNC Financial (PNC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $220
    • SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Southwest Gas (SWX) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $82
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $50
    • UWM Holdings (UWMC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $6
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $165
  • Downgrades
    • Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $51
    • BrightSpire Capital Inc (BRSP) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $5
    • BWX Technologies (BWXT) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • CACI (CACI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Ciena (CIEN) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $70
    • Coinbase (COIN) Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $269.83
    • Comerica (CMA) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Neutral at BTIG
      • Cut to Hold at Craig-Hallum
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $150
      • Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $115
    • Datadog (DDOG) Cut to Sell at Guggenheim; PT $105
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $45
    • Exelixis (EXEL) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
    • First Financial Corp (THFF) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • First Hawaiian (FHB) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $25
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $627
    • Jasper Therapeutics (JSPR) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $5
      • Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $4
      • Cut to Neutral at Cantor
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $259
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $920
    • Mullen Group (MTL CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$15
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $9.20
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $127
    • TPI Composites (TPIC) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • United Community Banks (UCB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • WNS Holdings (WNS) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $76.50
      • Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $76.50
  • Initiations
    • Adtran Holdings (ADTN) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $335
    • Airo Group (AIRO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $26
      • Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $35
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $31
    • Amdocs (DOX) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $105
    • Applied Opto (AAOI) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • AppLovin (APP) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Arista Networks (ANET) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $125
    • Axon (AXON) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $875
    • Bilibili (BILI) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $28
    • Bluerock Homes Trust (BHM) Rated New Buy at Colliers; PT $15
    • Calix (CALX) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $42
    • Ciena (CIEN) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $105
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Cisco (CSCO) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Coherent Corp (COHR) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $110
    • CommScope (COMM) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Corning (GLW) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $60
    • CSG Systems (CSGS) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Enova International (ENVA) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • F5 Inc. (FFIV) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $340
    • Fabrinet (FN) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Harmonic (HLIT) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $7
    • HP Enterprise (HPE) Reinstated Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Kratos (KTOS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $60
    • Lumentum (LITE) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $120
    • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $17
    • Monolithic Power (MPWR) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Novocure (NVCR) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $30
    • Radware (RDWR) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $35
    • Semler Scientific (SMLR) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $101
    • TJX (TJX) Rated New Outperform at Daiwa; PT $133
    • Vital Farms (VITL) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $45

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed