Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Wholesale Trade Sales, Wholesale Inventories; 1:00ET 10-year note auction; FOMC
Meeting Minutes

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump said at least seven countries can expect tariff letters
  • Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett is emerging as a leading contender for Fed chair – WSJ
  • $100,000 salary in January 2020 has same buying power as $124,353 in April 2025, according to BLS
  • KREMLIN SAYS RUSSIA PLANS TO CONTINUE DIALOG WITH US: IFX
  • COREWEAVE Becomes First AI Cloud Provider To Offer NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 BLACKWELL GPU At Large Scale
  • UNH SAYS NO EVIDENCE OF WRONGDOING
  • The FBI has reportedly launched a criminal investigation of former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey for their involvement in the 2016 Trump-Russia probe

 

Global stocks steadied as traders assessed the latest tariff actions, with President Trump escalating his trade rhetoric and threatening more charges on copper and
pharmaceuticals. Trump said he would “probably” tell the European Union within two days what rate it can expect for its exports to the US. The European Commission is said to be closing in on a preliminary agreement on a trade deal with the United States that
would create carve outs for some companies with factories in the US. China’s producer deflation worsened to its lowest point in nearly two years in June, as the economy faced challenges from a potential global trade war and weak domestic demand.  

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures inch higher, as President Trump announced plans to update the trade status of at least seven countries this morning, with further updates expected this afternoon. Investors
will also parse minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting later today for indications on whether officials are closer to lowering interest rates. Trump accused Fed Chair Jerome Powell of “whining like a baby about non-existent inflation.” The US
will charge interest on student debt again for an estimated 7.7 million borrowers enrolled in the SAVE program from August 1.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.3%.

In pre-market trading, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) gains 0.8% after Oppenheimer raised the recommendation on the software company to outperform, citing potential upside
as AI revenue grows quickly. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) drops 20% after the maker of semiconductor equipment posted fiscal 4Q revenue that slipped from the year-ago period. AES Corp. (AES) is exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest,
according to sources. Shares are up 14%. Bloom Energy (BE) gains 7% as JPMorgan upgraded its rating to overweight after fuel cells unexpectedly qualified for Clean Electricity Investment credits as part of the new tax bill. Doximity Inc. (DOCS) rises 3% after
Evercore ISI upgraded the healthcare-software company to outperform, saying the fiscal 2026 guidance is conservative. Mobileye Global (MBLY) slips 1.2% after the maker of software and hardware technology for automobiles announced a secondary offering by Intel.
RxSight (RXST) tumbles 40% after the company cut its 2025 revenue forecast and reported preliminary second-quarter revenue that fell short of expectations. Starbucks (SBUX +1.7%) has received proposals from prospective investors in its China business, most
of whom are eyeing a controlling stake in the operation. Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) declines 4% after Citi downgraded the medical device maker to sell from neutral. T-Mobile (TMUS) drops 1.9% as KeyBanc Capital Markets cuts to underweight. VRNA (+20%): Merck Agrees
to $10 Billion Deal for Drugmaker Verona, FT Says. FCX (+2.2%): Freeport Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT $56. JD (-1.7%): Alibaba Shares Fall After JD.com’s New Food Delivery Program. BABA (-2.8%): Alibaba Shares Fall After JD.com’s New Food Delivery Program.
ENPH (-4.4%): Enphase Energy Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $32. EVTL (-19%): Vertical Aerospace Offers $60 million Shares.

European gauges rise as investors looked for signs of progress in trade negotiations with the US. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X today
that the EU is “working closely” in “good faith” with the Trump Administration to get an agreement. Trump told reporters that despite progress with the EU on a trade deal, frustration over the bloc’s taxes and fines targeting US technology firms could result
in him unilaterally declaring a new tariff rate within the next two days. The Stoxx 600 looks set to rise for a third consecutive session, with banks leading gains on the back of a rally in UniCredit SpA after it doubled its equity stake in German rival Commerzbank
AG to about 20%. EssilorLuxottica SA gained as much as 7.1% after Meta Platforms bought a minority stake in the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer. Bank and insurance names are leading gains while media shares provide a drag. Advertising agency WPP plunged
16% after it tempered its revenue outlook. Stoxx 600 +0.7%, DAX +1.2%, CAC +1.2%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Banks +2.1%, Insurance +1.4%, Construction +1.2%, Industrials +1.1%. Media -1.8%, Basic Resources -0.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower by 0.1%. Equities in Hong Kong were among the top losers in the region, partly weighed by declines
in metals stocks after Trump said he planned to implement a 50% tariff on imports of copper. Asian pharmaceutical companies that export to the US saw their share prices fall after President Trump said drugmakers could face taxes as high as 200% on imports
if they didn’t move production to the US by next year. Chinese stocks eased as China’s producer price index fell 3.6% in June from a year earlier, worse than a 3.3% decline in May and the largest drop since July 2023.  China’s factory activity shrank for a
third month in a row in June. Malaysia’s stock benchmark index was down about 0.4% as the central bank cut its interest rate for the first time since 2020. Shares of Indian natural resources group Vedanta Ltd. fell as much as 7.8% after Viceroy Research said
it was shorting the debt held by its parent. Hang Seng Index -1.1%, ASX 200 -0.6%, Thailand -0.5%, Sensex -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.2%. Singapore +0.2%, Topix +0.4%, Indonesia +0.6%, Kospi +0.6%, Taiwan +0.7%, Philippines +1.1%, Vietnam +1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are marginally higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.415% and curves flat. The Treasury will sell $39 billion of 10-year notes later today followed
by $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. An offering of three-year securities on Tuesday was met with soft demand.  The 3-year auction tailed by 0.4bp with minimal market reaction. 

 

METALS: 

Gold, which had been a top hedge against tariff risks, continues to lose steam. Bullion fell as much as 0.5% to around $3,285 an ounce, adding to a 1% loss in the
previous session. Trump triggered fresh chaos in metals markets by announcing a steeper-than-anticipated 50% tariff on copper imports, driving a record surge in New York futures and a decline in the global benchmark. Copper futures slide over 2% after surging
as much as 17.7% yesterday. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the copper tariffs are likely to be in place by the end of July. Goldman Sachs expects inbound-US copper flows to accelerate as the incentive to “front-run” the tariff implementation has
increased.  Spot gold -0.3%, Silver -0.7%, Copper -2.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices nudge higher as traders ignored uncertainty around US tariffs, as well as signs of bearishness in the US energy market. US crude stockpiles jumped by more
than 7 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would be the biggest rise in five months if confirmed by the EIA today. Brent may fall to the mid-$50s next year amid a supply glut, RBC said. The oil market needed the latest super-sized supply increase
that OPEC+ announced at the weekend, the United Arab Emirates energy minister said. The UAE’s Suhail Al Mazrouei said the fact the market hasn’t seen an increase in inventories despite prior supply expansions from the group and its allies was proof that more
barrels were needed.  Saudi Aramco’s CEO sees “healthy global oil demand,” despite trade challenges, tariffs and their impact on the global economy. WTI +0.2%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas -0.8%, RBOB +0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged higher, staying in tight ranges versus its major peers as traders await the release of minutes from the Fed’s June meeting.
Kiwi dollar declines on RBNZ’s dovish hold and Aussie briefly ticked lower in sympathy. The RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but said it may ease further if price pressures abate. Offshore yuan turns marginally softer after China’s factory-gate
deflation worsens.  US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.25%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.3%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +1.1% at 8:00ET.    

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Bloom Energy (BE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $33
    • Bridgebio (BBIO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $60
    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $500
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $200
    • Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $70
    • Fox Corp (FOXA) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Haemonetics (HAE) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $90
    • Hanover (THG) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $188
    • Hologic (HOLX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $80
    • J M Smucker (SJM) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $120
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $600
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $11
  • Downgrades
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $101
    • Ball (BALL) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $66
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $32
    • EOG Resources (EOG) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $134
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$24.50
    • Greif (GEF) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Illumina (ILMN) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $80
    • LPL Financial (LPLA) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $403
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $288
    • O-I Glass (OI) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • PVH (PVH) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $268
    • RxSight (RXST) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $9
    • Silgan (SLGN) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $27
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $200
    • Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $14
    • Thermo Fisher (TMO) Cut to Neutral at UBS
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $114
    • XPO Inc. (XPO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $140
  • Initiations
    • Alamos Gold (AGI CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$46
    • Altria (MO) Reinstated Underperform at Jefferies; PT $50
    • Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) ADRs Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • BBB Foods (TBBB) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $29
    • Bio-Techne (TECH) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $65
    • C3.ai (AI) Rated New Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $40
    • Cartesian Therapeutics (RNAC) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $38
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$29
    • Freeport (FCX) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT $56
    • GeneDx Holdings Corp (WGS) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Genius Sports (GENI) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $15
    • Inovio (INO) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $5
    • Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$13.50
    • Kinetik (KNTK) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $60
    • LiveRamp (RAMP) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson
    • MongoDB (MDB) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $280
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT $73
    • Osisko Development Corp (ODV CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$6
    • Philip Morris (PM) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $220
    • Redwire (RDW) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $20
    • Sportradar (SRAD) Rated New Neutral at Arete; PT $31
    • Starz Entertainment (STRZ) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $39
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Resumed Underperform at BofA; PT $35
    • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Rated New Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$60
    • Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$24
    • Wingstop (WING) Rated New Outperform at William Blair

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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