Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  

Highlights and News:  

• US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker: Today’s Announcement Will be Strategically Important
• EU plans to engage more with other nations hit by US tariffs
• SEFCOVIC: MUST PREPARE WELL BALANCED COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST US
• CHINA WILLING TO STRENGTHEN COMMUNICATION WITH UK: WANG
  
• Fed Renovations in Focus as Way to Oust Powell
  

Global stocks ticked lower as ongoing US tariff threats heightened investor unease, though some optimism persisted that President Trump’s rhetoric might be largely
posturing. Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in ongoing negotiations. Trump stated that tariff rates may be adjusted if countries open their markets
to the US and eliminate trade barriers. The EU announced it would extend the pause on countermeasures until early August, while continuing to seek a negotiated resolution, though Germany’s finance minister urged strong action if the tariffs proceed. The slump
in Japan’s long-term bonds intensified today, pushing yields sharply higher in a move that puts global debt markets on alert.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures slipped as Trump’s fresh tariff threats targeting the European Union and Mexico dampened investor sentiment ahead of a week packed with economic data and second-quarter
earnings. As major US banks launch earnings season this week, strategists suggest that Wall Street’s modest profit forecasts could pave the way for lenders to sustain their strong stock market performance. JPMorgan strategists remain bullish on domestically
focused stocks over exporters in international markets as uncertainty persists around the impact of tariffs. The strategists remain “unexcited” about energy stocks and reiterate buy recommendation on miners. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the S&P 500 to
rise by 10% over the next 12 months, implying a P/E multiple on forward consensus earnings of 22 times, something clients are getting uncomfortable with. Amazon’s Prime Day sale helped boost online spending across all US retailers by a larger-than-estimated
30.3% to $24.1 billion, Adobe said. US inflation figures due on Tuesday are expected to show faster price growth as companies began passing on higher import costs. Alongside retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment figures later in the week,
the data could test the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see stance on interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, Trump repeated his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell late on Sunday, saying it would be a “good thing” if the central banker stepped down. Deutsche Bank strategists
said the potential dismissal of Powell is a major and underpriced risk that could trigger a selloff in the US dollar and Treasuries.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.25%.

In pre-market trading, Autodesk shares (ADSK) rise 7% after the software company said it is allocating its capital to organic investment, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions,
and continuing its share repurchase program as its free cash flow grows. Best Buy shares (BBY) are down 2% after Piper Sandler downgraded the electronics retailer to neutral from overweight. trading, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the security software company
to equal-weight from overweight. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks (COIN +1.8%, GLXY +2.5%, MSTR +2.5%) rise in premarket trading on Monday after Bitcoin climbed beyond $123,000 for the first time as the US House is prepared to consider legislation that would
advance President Trump’s crypto-friendly agenda. Intapp shares (INTA) fall 4.3% as Barclays cuts to underweight from equal-weight after trimming 2026 revenue estimates for the application software company. Kenvue shares (KVUE) rise 5.2% after the consumer
health company appointed current director Kirk Perry as interim CEO effective immediately. Melius Research LLC initiates coverage of the restaurant sector, assigning sell ratings on McDonald’s (MCD -0.5%) and Starbucks (SBUX -0.8%). Shares of Boeing Co. (BA)
are 1.3% higher after investigators, in a preliminary report on last month’s Air India crash, said they found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing 787 aircraft or its GE engines. SoundHound AI Inc. shares (SOUN) are down
2.8% after Piper Sandler downgraded the voice AI software company to neutral from overweight. Stitch Fix shares (SFIX) are up 7.6% after William Blair upgraded the personal styling company to outperform from market perform. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical shares
(RARE) slide 3.8% after the FDA rejected the company’s application for its gene therapy for a brain disorder. Waters Corp. (WAT -11%) and Becton Dickinson (BDX -0.2%) shares are lower after Waters and Becton’s Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions business are
set to combine in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction valued at about $17.5 billion.

European gauges trade mixed, with shares in the UK outperforming after President Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico if better
trade terms are not negotiated before August. The EU plans to step up engagement with other countries hit by the US levies. Bank of England after Governor Bailey hinted at bigger rate cuts if the jobs market deteriorates more quickly than the central bank
expects. Europe’s Stoxx 600 edges lower, with trade-sensitive automakers among the biggest decliners. The 30% tariff applies “separate from all sectoral tariffs”, Trump wrote in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, implying that
the current 27.5% duty on autos that have been in effect since April would still stand. Morgan Stanley strategists downgraded their 2025 European EPS growth forecasts, citing FX headwinds along with uncertainty around tariffs. Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -0.9%, CAC
-0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Luxury -1.3%, Technology -1.1%, Autos -1%, Retail -0.6%. Food & Bev +0.4%, Utilities +0.3%.

Shares in Asia were mixed as renewed trade tensions weighed on investor sentiment. Caution was also evident in Japan over US trade as well as an upcoming upper house
election. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party potentially losing its majority could cloud the outlook for the nation’s fiscal policy. Japan’s defense stocks rise after Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia today. Chinese stocks edged higher
as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8% in June, even as exports to the US fell almost 10%. China’s exports regained momentum in June as firms rushed out orders during a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of an impending
deadline next month, with shipments to Southeast Asian transit hubs particularly strong. China’s rare earth exports jumped 32% in June from the prior month, the highest since 2009. Thailand +2%, Philippines +1%, Vietnam +0.9%, Kospi +0.8%, Indonesia +0.7%,
Singapore +0.5%, Hang Seng Index +0.25%, CSI 300 +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.1%, Sensex -0.3%, Nikkei 225 -0.3%, Taiwan -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries edge lower, with US 10-year yield rising 2 bp to 4.44% and the curve slightly steeper. With the US economic data calendar blank, focal points include stock
market reaction to trade-war intensification and the latest jump in long-term Japanese government bond yields driven by the fiscal outlook. Yields on Japan’s bonds from 10-year to 40-year spiked, with the 40-year yield leading the way, amid increasing worries
about higher government spending. US long-end yields are higher by about 2bp with front-end tenors little changed. Regarding supply, Treasury coupon auctions are on hiatus until 20-year bond reopening on July 23; investment-grade corporate new issue calendar
is blank thus far but expected to feature big-bank offerings later in the week after 2Q results start being reported.

METALS: 

Gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid. Goldman is sticking with its bullish outlook on gold as central bank buying continues. The bank expects strong demand to push
bullion to new records. Silver climbed to an almost 14-year high as investors sought alternatives to a near-record gold price, with increased demand tightening physical supply. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver +1.6%, Copper futures -1.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose over 1% on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later today, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Higher
oil imports by China also offered support. China’s June oil imports increased 7.4% on the year, reaching the highest since August in 2023, according to customs data. Trump said on Sunday that he will send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. He is due
to make a “major statement” on Russia today, having expressed his frustration with Putin due to the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine. WTI +1.6%, Brent +1.5%, US Nat Gas +3.3%, RBOB +0.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the euro briefly hit a three-week low before recovering, while the dollar fluctuated after Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports
from two of the largest US trading partners. Both the European Union and Mexico described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive. JPMorgan analysts see the dollar remaining under pressure in the medium term, with a potential impact on imported US inflation.
Australia’s dollar was bought versus the kiwi by macro funds after China reported better-than-expected exports data. US$ Index +0.01%, GBPUSD -0.03%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK
-0.3%, USDMXN +0.2%.

Bitcoin +2.2%, Ethereum +1.6%. The risk-off tone stopped short of cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin surging past $120,000.  Bitcoin rallied alongside broader gains in
digital assets as the US House is prepared to consider legislation that would advance President Trump’s crypto-friendly agenda.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Raised to Neutral at BTIG
• American Axle (AXL) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $7
• Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $105
• Global Payments (GPN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $84
• Hyatt (H) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Mastercard (MA) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $616
• MVB Financial (MVBF) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $28
• nCino (NCNO) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $38
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $145
• Omega Healthcare (OHI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $41
• Paymentus (PAY) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $37
• PayPal (PYPL) Raised to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT C$184.59
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $29
• Stitch Fix (SFIX) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $100
• Visteon (VC) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $142
• WK Kellogg (KLG) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $23
• Downgrades
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Ametek (AME) Cut to Hold at Melius; PT $192
• Best Buy (BBY) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $75
• Borr Drilling (BORR) Cut to Neutral at BTIG; PT $4
• Church & Dwight (CHD) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $83
• Cloudflare (NET) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
• Core Scientific (CORZ) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $495
• Evercore (EVR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $10
• Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $72
• Ingersoll Rand (IR) Cut to Hold at Melius; PT $93
• Intapp (INTA) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• InterRent REIT (IIP-U CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen
• KKR & Co. (KKR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• MiNK (INKT) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• NEXTracker (NXT) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $65
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $14
• P&G (PG) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $170
• PROG Holdings (PRG) Cut to Sell at BTIG; PT $24
• Rivian (RIVN) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Shoals Technologies (SHLS) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $7
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Soundhound (SOUN) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $12
• TechnipFMC (FTI) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Tidewater (TDW) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Verona Pharma (VRNA) ADRs Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $107
• Vestis (VSTS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
• Initiations
• A10 Networks (ATEN) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $20
• Analog Devices (ADI) Rated New Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $270
• Blue Owl Technology Fina (OTF) Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $16
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $70
• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $32
• Rated New Buy at Nephron Research; PT $33
• Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $32
• Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $34
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $31
• Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $38
• Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $32
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $95
• Chipotle (CMG) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $60
• Cisco (CSCO) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $78
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Resumed Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7.50
• Coelacanth Energy (CEI CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $27
• Darden (DRI) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $240
• Descartes Systems (DSG CN) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $500
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $95
• Gen Digital (GEN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $46
• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $11
• Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $9.50
• Hinge Health (HNGE) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $58
• Innoviva (INVA) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $40
• InPlay (IPO CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$18
• Logan Energy (LGN CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$1.20
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Marex Group (MRX) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $54
• McDonald’s (MCD) Rated New Sell at Melius; PT $250
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $68
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Hold at Daiwa; PT $58
• One Group Hospitality (STKS) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $6
• Putnam New York Tax Exempt Income Fund (PEIBX) ProMIS Neurosciences Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $4
• Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Restaurant Brands (QSR CN) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $90
• Saturn Minerals (SOIL CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$6
• Serina Therapeutics (SER) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $15
• Slide Insurance (SLDE) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $25
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $19
• Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $20
• Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $25
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $180
• Starbucks (SBUX) Rated New Sell at Melius; PT $80
• Super Group (SGHC) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $15
• Surge Energy (SGY CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$8.50
• Telecom Argentina (TECO2 AR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Banco BTG Pactual
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Rated New Sell at Aletheia Capital; PT $150
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $235
• Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$2
• Wingstop (WING) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $350
• Yum (YUM) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $200

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke