Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 15, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Empire State Manufacturing, CPI, Canada June CPI; 9:15ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 12:45ET
Fed’s Barr speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 2:45ET Fed’s Collins speaks; 7:45ET Fed’s Logan speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Nvidia to Resume H20 AI Chip Sales to China
  • AMD Prepares to Ship MI303 Chips to China as US Reviews License
  • EU’S SEFCOVIC, US’S GREER TO SPEAK THIS EVENING
  • The EU has no intention to move forward with any trade countermeasures before August 1
  • Google to invest $25 billion in data centers and AI infrastructure across largest US electric grid
  • BESSENT: NOT GOING TO RUSH DEALS BECAUSE OF SOME MKT DEADLINE
  • Apple commits $500M to MP Materials in multi-year deal to launch process for rare earth elements

 

Global stocks climbed as investors enter a key week for US earnings, inflation data and trade talks with cautious optimism. MSCI’s world share index edged higher
and is a whisker away from last week’s all-time highs. Chinese firms are scrambling to buy Nvidia’s H20 artificial intelligence chips, as the company said it planned to resume sales to the mainland days after its CEO met President Trump. Data showed China’s
economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 5.2% in April-June from a year earlier.  EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will talk with US Trade Representative Greer this early evening. Japan is also reportedly
trying to schedule high-level talks with the US this Friday. Investor confidence in Germany’s economy improved in July, as the ZEW expectations index rose to 52.7 from 47.5 the previous month. The UK economy is showing signs of rebounding from its recent slump,
with a 3.1% jump in June retail sales.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are mostly higher as focus shifts to inflation data and the earnings season which begins today, with second-quarter reports from major banks. Profits for S&P 500 companies
in the second quarter are expected to rise 5.8%, according to LSEG data, down from a forecast of 10.2% on April 1. US consumer prices likely rose in June, possibly signaling the beginning of a long-expected tariff-driven inflation surge, prompting the Federal
Reserve to remain cautious about restarting rate cuts. Nasdaq 100 futures outperform as Nvidia shares rose as much as 5% in pre-market trading after announcing plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after assurances from Washington that shipments
will be approved. The company said in a blog post on Monday that the move may add billions to Nvidia’s revenue this year. BlackRock pulled in $46 billion to its investment funds as assets hit a record $12.5 trillion last quarter. JPMorgan’s traders notched
their best second quarter ever as fixed-income trading topped expectations.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) rises 4.4% as the company plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China. Semiconductor firms gain alongside
Nvidia, including AMD (AMD) +5% and Broadcom (AVGO) +1.5%. Makers of wound-care products are falling after the US government proposed to change how skin substitutes are paid for. MiMedx (MDXG) tumbles 17% while Organogenesis (ORGO) sinks 25%. BlackRock (BLK)
falls 1.9% after the investment firm’s net inflows missed analyst estimates in the second quarter. MP Materials (MP) gains 10% after a report that Apple announced a $500 million deal with the company for rare earths produced in the US. Trade Desk (TTD) rallies
14% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the advertising technology company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens on July 18. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) falls about 2% after lowering its full-year guidance for net interest income, after another quarter
of tepid growth. Citigroup’s (C +0.5%) traders had their best second quarter in five years, with revenue buoyed by record trading volumes in the quarter.

 

European gauges pare early gains made after Trump indicated he is open to more trade negotiations with the EU.  The Stoxx 600 holds early small gains with technology,
media and auto shares outperforming while telecom and real estate shares lag. There was little reaction to stronger-than-expected German ZEW data and a beat for euro-area industrial production. Experian advances as much as 5.2%, touching a new record high,
after the UK credit services firm reported first-quarter organic revenue growth that beat estimates. Orsted climbs as much as 6.4% after Morgan Stanley upgrades the Danish offshore wind developer to overweight from equal-weight. Accelleron shares jump as much
as 13% to a record high after the Swiss engine parts maker raised its guidance. Trustpilot Group rose 12% after the British holding company’s preliminary first-half revenue beat. TomTom shares rise as much as 11% after the GPS-maker narrowed its revenue forecast
for the full year. B&M plunged as much as 14%, hitting their lowest level on record, after posting weaker top-line growth. Barratt Redrow shares plummet as much as 13%, after the property developer said it built fewer houses than hoped in FY25 and posted disappointing
guidance for FY26. AFRY slumps as much as 9.2% after its second-quarter results. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.05%, CAC +0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.05%. Technology +1.1%, Autos +1.05%, Media +0.9%. Aero & Defense -1.3%, Real Estate -1.2%, Telecom -0.8%.

Shares in Asia advanced with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.7% as Nvidia’s plan to resume some chip sales to China stoked optimism over geopolitics. Chinese
shares were mixed as the latest economic data raised concerns over pressure on domestic consumption.  China’s GDP rose more than expected but retail sales came in a bit weaker at 4.8% versus estimates of 5.3%, as consumer demand at home remained weak. Elsewhere,
traders are positioning for the weekend upper house election in Japan. Sentiment is cautious, as a surge in bond yields underscored mounting worries about the nation’s fiscal situation. Hang Seng Index +1.6%, Thailand +1.55%, Taiwan +1%, ASX +0.7%, Indonesia
+0.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.55%, Kospi +0.4%, Sensex +0.4%, Singapore +0.25%, CSI 300 +0.03%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Vietnam -0.7%, Philippines -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed US 10-year yields down ~1bp to 4.425%. Long-end yields are ~2bp richer on the day and the curve flatter ahead of June CPI data, supported by
bigger gains in European bond markets.  Besides CPI, focal points of Tuesday’s session include five scheduled Fed speakers.  US front-end yields are +2bps, flattening 5s30s and 2s10s spreads by 2.5bps. For CPI, economist estimates for m/m change range from
0.1% to 0.4%, with the median 0.3%.

 

METALS: 

Gold firmed, recovering from Monday’s modest drop, as investors digested mixed messages from the US regarding the progress of trade negotiations. Meanwhile investors
awaited a key US inflation reading which could give investors more guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.  The EU on Monday accused the US of resisting efforts to strike a trade deal and warned of countermeasures if no agreement is reached by August
1.  Spot gold +0.3%, Silver +0.3%, Copper futures ~flat.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are little changed, paring earlier losses with WTI near $67 a barrel, after President Trump refrained from taking immediate measures to force Russia, a
major producer, to sign a peace deal with Ukraine. Trump on Monday told Russia to resolve its Ukraine war within 50 days or face massive new economic sanctions. If Trump does implement the Russia tariff, it would “drastically” change the outlook for the oil
market, ING analysts warned. China’s crude imports are set to stay strong as it’s expected to stockpile up to 140 million barrels for reserves, Energy Aspects said. Apparent oil demand surged 7.8% in June from the prior year. Oil demand is set to stay “very
strong” through the third quarter, keeping the market balanced in the near term, OPECS’ secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.03%, US Nat Gas -0.9%, RBOB +0.25%.   

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar was a touch weaker against European currencies ahead of key US inflation data that may influence monetary policy and shape discussions
around Federal Reserve leadership. The euro barely moved after data showed investor confidence in Germany’s economy improved in July. Commodity currencies edged higher after data show China’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter. US$
Index +0.01%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD +0.25%, NZDUSD +0.35%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK +0.35%, USDNOK +0.2%, USDMXN -0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -2.9%, Ethereum -1.2%.  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • APi Group (APG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $42
    • Custom Truck (CTOS) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $7
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $54
    • Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $109
    • ResMed (RMD) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $294
    • RioCan REIT (REI-U CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$19
    • Solventum (SOLV) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $103
    • Steris (STE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $276
    • Warner Music (WMG) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $135
  • Downgrades
    • Ameriprise (AMP) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Carrier Global (CARR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $79
    • Charles River (CRL) Cut to Hold at CFRA
    • CVR Energy (CVI) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
    • DoorDash (DASH) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $250
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $37
    • Fortive (FTV) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $50
    • Freeport (FCX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $54
    • Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $1
    • Mr Cooper (COOP) Cut to Neutral at UBS
    • Nexa (NEXA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $5
    • Oscar Health (OSCR) Cut to Sell at UBS; PT $11
    • Realty Income (O) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • RxSight (RXST) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $9
    • Simulations Plus (SLP) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $23
    • Southern Copper (SCCO) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $99
    • Southwest Air (LUV) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $40
    • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT C$60.25
    • Venture Global (VG) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $17
    • Waters (WAT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $330
  • Initiations
    • Ambac Financial (AMBC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $10
    • Cass Information (CASS) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $50
    • Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Exchange Income (EIF CN) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT C$59
    • Expro Group Holdings NV (XPRO) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Forestar Group (FOR) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $30
    • Gitlab (GTLB) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
    • Globe Life (GL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $150
    • Grab Holdings (GRAB) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $5.71
    • Heidmar Maritime (HMR) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $5
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $20
    • Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Innovex (INVX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $20
    • Intermap Technologies (IMP CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$5
    • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $152
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $14
    • Nabors (NBR) Rated New Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $30
    • National Energy Services (NESR) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Nutanix (NTNX) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $95
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $73
    • Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) Rated New Neutral at UBS
    • Precision Drilling (PD CN) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • ProPetro (PUMP) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • Quantasing (QSG) ADRs Rated New Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT $16
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $64
      • Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $60
    • Ranger Energy (RNGR) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • RPC Inc. (RES) Rated New Underweight at Piper Sandler
    • Ryder (R) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $215
    • Select Water Solutions I (WTTR) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Senseonics (SENS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $1.25
    • Sun Communities (SUI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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