Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 16, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 8:30ET June PPI, New York Fed Services Business Activity; 9:15ET
Industrial Production, Mfg Production, Capacity Utilization, Fed’s Hammack speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Beige Book; 3:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Says Drug Tariffs Probable by Aug. 1, Downplays More Deals
  • EU’S SEFCOVIC ON WAY TO WASHINGTON FOR TRADE TALKS
  • 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo kicked off in Beijing today
  • Two Israeli Air Strikes Hit Syria’s City of Sweida: Syrian State News Agency
  • ISRAEL SAYS STRUCK SYRIA GENERAL STAFF MILITARY HQ IN DAMASCUS
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader said the country is prepared to respond to any new military attack
  • MLB’s All-Star Game was decided for the first time by a home run derby-style swing-off

 

Global stocks were mixed a day after US consumer price data indicated companies are beginning to pass through some tariff-related costs. UK inflation rose to its
highest level since January 2024, with consumer price inflation picking up to 3.6% in June. Retailers blamed the recent increases in payroll taxes and the minimum wage. Germany’s economy “likely stagnated” in the second quarter, according to Bundesbank, describing
the underlying trend as “weak overall”.  At least nine US and international banks raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year following better-than-expected data from the second quarter. Israel says it is sending more troops to the border
with Syria, after vowing to step up attacks if government forces were not withdrawn from the south of the country. Russia attacked cities across Ukraine overnight with hundreds of drones and a missile strike, hitting energy infrastructure. Putin intends to
keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are mixed, paring earlier losses as solid earnings helped counter concerns about tariff headlines. Trump said he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon
as the end of the month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well. “Probably at the end of the month, and we’re going to start off with a low tariff and give the pharmaceutical companies a year or so to build, and then we’re going to make it
a very high tariff,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. Trump also said his timeline for implementing tariffs on semiconductors was “similar” and that it was “less complicated.” Goldman Sachs Group and Bank of America advanced in premarket on record-setting trading
revenues. Johnson & Johnson rallies after earnings beat and outlook raised, amid strength in heart and cancer treatments. Traders will be monitoring US producer price data this morning to see the extent of inflationary pressures.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.02%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Crypto-linked stocks rose with Bitcoin prices as President Donald Trump said the House of Representatives will pass the
GENIUS Act stablecoin bill on Wednesday after a procedural vote Tuesday failed. ASML ADRs (ASML) fall 6% after the chip equipment maker struck a more cautious tone about growth outlook next year. Bank of America (BAC) rises 1.4% as traders posted a record
second quarter. Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is up 9% after the Wall Street Journal said Aquarian is in exclusive talks to buy the provider of annuities and life insurance. Fluor Corp. (FLR) slips 0.9% after KeyBanc stepped away from its overweight rating.
Global Payments (GPN) is up 5%; activist investor Elliott Investment Management has amassed a sizable position in the payments services company. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rises 2% after the pharmaceutical company boosted its sales forecast for the full year
and earnings beat. United Natural (UNFI) rises 5% after the company cut its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the year due to the impact from cybersecurity incident.  

European gauges reverse early losses due to disappointing earnings reports, and the Bundesbank warning that US tariffs of 30% would pose “a considerable economic downside
risk”. ASML, the world’s biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, sank after walking back growth forecasts for next year due to the trade uncertainty, even as its second-quarter orders beat estimates. French automaker Renault sank as much as 18%,
the most in more than five years, as it cut its margin outlook. Richemont rose over 1% as it posted better-than-expected sales, defying a wider downturn for luxury goods. Auto and real estate sectors fell the most, while financial services, media and telecoms
outperform. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX +0.4%, CAC flat, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Financial Services +1%, Telecom +0.8%, Media +0.7%. Autos -0.9%, Real Estate -0.8%, Technology -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mixed after Trump said Tuesday that he had reached a preliminary trade agreement with Indonesia. China stocks give up opening gains to end lower
as upcoming Chinese corporate results are expected to show weak earnings growth. Vietnam and Taiwan led gains in the region, while key gauges declined in Australia and South Korea. Indonesia’s stock benchmark climbed after Trump announced a 19% tariff on the
country’s goods, down from the 32% he threatened in April. Indonesia later unexpectedly cut its key rate by 25bps to 5.25%. Asian critical-minerals miner shares advance after Apple said it will buy rare-earth minerals from Pentagon-backed US producer MP Materials.
Baidu’s shares gained in Hong Kong after the Chinese internet company announced a multi-year partnership with Uber. Vietnam +1%, Taiwan +0.9%, Indonesia +0.7%, Sensex +0.1%. Nikkei 225 -0.05%, Thailand -0.3%, Hang Seng Index -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.8%, Kospi -0.9%,
Philippines -1.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed, with curve flatter in early US trading with long-end yields richer by about 2bp and short end ~flat. Gilts fall along the curve after UK inflation
unexpectedly rose to its highest level since January 2024, prompting traders to trim bets on easing by the Bank of England this year.  Focal points of US session include June PPI data and several Fed speakers, along with the potential for big-bank bond offerings
in the wake of reporting 2Q results.  The Fed’s Lorie Logan said policymakers will likely need to hold interest rates steady for a bit longer to fully cool inflation. Long-end-led gains in US rates flatten 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1bp and 2.5bp.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged up after tariff-related announcements from President Trump signaled ongoing concerns over a global trade war, supporting haven demand.  Nineteen out of
36 central banks surveyed are currently purchasing gold from domestic artisanal or small-scale miners, while four more countries are considering doing the same. Silver will extend a rally beyond $40 an ounce in the near term on tightening supplies and growing
investment demand, Citi said. Copper retreated as London Metal Exchange inventories rose in Asia and looming import tariffs make rerouting shipments to the US too risky.  Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +0.4%, Copper futures -0.9%.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices fell, with Brent crude futures around $68.00 a barrel as signs of stronger Chinese crude consumption were outweighed by investor caution about the wider
economic impact from US tariffs.  Global oil inventories have surged but prices have stayed stable due to most increases being in Asia, Morgan Stanley said. Just 10% of the rise in stockpiles has been in the OECD. Traders are waiting for the EIA to release
the closely watched official weekly crude oil inventory report this afternoon. WTI -1%, Brent -0.9%, US Nat Gas -0.2%, RBOB -0.7%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded within tight ranges versus major peers as its latest rebound lost momentum. Sterling edged higher after UK inflation for June
came in hotter than expected, driven by rising food prices. Money markets trimmed expectations on BOE rate cuts. The Australian dollar was bought by exporters ahead of Thursday’s local jobs report. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY -0.1%,
AUDUSD +0.15%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.02%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2%, Ethereum +3.6%.  Trump on Tuesday stepped in to broker an agreement among Republican lawmakers after a snag cast doubt on the fate of long-awaited cryptocurrency
legislation that would mark a major victory for the digital assets sector.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aecon Group (ARE CN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$19
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $210
    • Bilibili (BILI) ADRs Raised to Buy at ICBC Research; PT $28.43
    • Commvault Systems (CVLT) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $210
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $17
    • Easterly Government (DEA) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $25
    • GDS Holdings (GDS) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Jacobs (J) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $155
    • Palantir (PLTR) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
    • Potlatch (PCH) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $52
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) Raised to Buy at BofA
  • Downgrades
    • Ardent Health (ARDT) Cut to Underperform at BofA
    • Atlassian (TEAM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Capital One; PT $211
    • Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $33
    • Centene (CNC) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $30
    • CNH Industrial (CNH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $11.50
    • Eagle Materials (EXP) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • Fluor (FLR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Capital One; PT $46
    • Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Karyopharm (KPTI) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • Kilroy (KRC) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $35
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $130
    • SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $17
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $150
    • Veritex Holdings (VBTX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $34
    • Wesco (WCC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $200
  • Initiations
    • Alphabet (GOOGL) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $210
    • Axon (AXON) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $820
    • Beeline Holdings Inc (BLNE) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
    • Didi Global (DIDIY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $7.20
    • Inspired Entertainment (INSE) Rated New Buy at BWS Financial; PT $20
    • Karooooo (KARO) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $60
    • MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $38
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $490
    • MSA Safety (MSA) Reinstated Neutral at Stifel; PT $182
    • Novagold Resources (NG CN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT C$9.61
    • Oncology Institute (TOI) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $6
    • QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $33
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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