Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 18, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:00ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits; 10:00ET U. of Mich.
Sentiment

Highlights and News:  

  • CBS cancels Stephen Colbert’s late-night show, Colbert will not be replaced
  • HESS WINS EXXON ARBITRATION CASE, PAVING WAY FOR CHEVRON DEAL
  • JAPAN CHIEF TRADE NEGOTIATOR PLANS US TRIP NEXT WEEK
  • Insurers are seeking hefty 2026 rate increases for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans
  • Trump Seeks Release of Grand Jury Documents in Epstein Case
  • FED’S WALLER: PRIVATE SECTOR NOT DOING AS WELL AS PEOPLE THINK
  • FED’S WALLER: WANT TO MAKE SURE WE DON’T HAVE A HARD LANDING

 

Global stocks edged higher as strong US economic data and corporate earnings offset worries about tariffs. Japan’s key price measure cooled a bit more than expected
while remaining well above the Bank of Japan’s target, keeping pressure on Prime Minister Ishiba to address voter concerns ahead of Sunday’s national election. Ishiba said that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told him that the two nations will be able
to reach a good trade deal. Goldman Sachs economists no longer expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates in September, with the central bank taking a more cautious approach before pushing the benchmark rate down to 3% by March. Trump again warned Brazil
to drop charges against Jair Bolsonaro. President Lula da Silva said Brazil would not accept “blackmail” from the US and the country will respond to US tariffs on August 1. A Brazil court this morning ordered Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor. Cocoa futures
dropped to an eight-month low as a slump in bean grindings in Asia and Europe underscored how historically high prices are suppressing demand.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures fluctuate after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched fresh record closes as Netflix’s market-beating quarterly profit failed to dazzle investors. Netflix shares are down
in premarket trading, even after the streaming-video company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. NFLX shares have gained 43% this year. Hess won its arbitration battle with Exxon, clearing the way for it
to be bought by Chevron more than 20 months after the $53 billion deal was announced. AmEx beat expectations as premium clients kept spending via credit cards. Cryptocurrency stocks rose after the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would develop
a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, American Express (AXP) rises 1.7% after the company’s billed business on its cards and other products outperformed expectations in the second
quarter. Blaize (BZAI) surges 100% after the company secured a contract to deploy its hybrid AI platform across Asia. Hess Corp. (HES) rises 7% after winning its arbitration battle with Exxon Mobil, clearing the way for it to be bought by Chevron. TRADING
HALT: HES (NYSE)-MERGER EFFECTIVE. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) rises 5% after reporting total net interest income for the second quarter that beat estimates. Netflix (NFLX) falls 1.7% after the streaming-video company’s strong second-quarter results clashed
against high expectations. Sable Offshore (SOC) rises 6% after a Santa Barbara judge issued a preliminary ruling on the oil and gas company’s Las Flores Pipelines. Sarepta (SRPT) sinks 31% after the gene therapy maker said another patient has died from acute
liver failure after receiving one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease. Symbotic (SYM) slips 1.8% after Deutsche Bank cut the automation technology company to hold. Viatris (VTRS) falls 3% after saying its Phase 3 trial of pimecrolimus 0.3%
ophthalmic ointment for blepharitis did not meet the primary endpoint.

European gauges give up early gains following Thursday’s record close on Wall Street. Energy stocks lead European gains, tracking a two-day advance in oil prices. Mining
stocks also outperform after BHP delivered an upbeat assessment of Chinese demand. GSK shares tumbled after its blood cancer drug failed to secure the backing of a FDA advisory panel. Burberry shares jumped after sales fell less than expected, as the fashion
brand begins to deliver on its turnaround plan under a new CEO. Saab AB climbed 15% as it reported a strong set of results for the second quarter. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX -0.2%, CAC +0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.15%. Energy +1%, Aero & Defense +0.9%, Basic Resources +0.5%.
Autos -0.5%, Healthcare -0.3%.

Shares in Asia rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.5%, helped by a jump in technology shares. TSMC was the biggest boost to the index, with sentiment aided
by the chipmaker’s bullish sales outlook a day earlier. Risk sentiment got a further boost after a Fed official backed an interest-rate cut this month. Chinese rare earth stocks rise, as the nation’s security ministry vows to cut off illegal outbound channels
for rare earth-related items. Asian cryptocurrency-related stocks gain on a sentiment boost after the US Congress passed legislation to regulate stablecoins, clearing the way for broader use. Australia’s ASX 200 led gains in the region, closing at an all-time
high. Japanese equities underperformed Asian peers ahead of Sunday’s upper house election. Japan will be closed for a holiday on Monday. ASX 200 +1.4%, Hang Seng Index +1.3%, Taiwan +1.2%, Thailan +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Vietnam +0.5%, Indonesia +0.3%, Philippines
+0.1%. Kospi -0.1%, Topix -0.2%, Sensex -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries move higher across the curve, pushing US 10-year yields down ~2.5bp to 4.25%. The curve is relatively flat. Another potential nominee for new Fed Chair,
Fed Governor Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness. He said the economy’s momentum has slowed significantly, and he expects it to “remain soft” for the rest of 2025. Waller’s remarks
set him apart from most of his fellow policymakers. Fed President Mary Daly said she thinks it’s reasonable for policymakers to plan on two interest-rate cuts this year. Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far but four major banks have yet to tap the market
since reporting quarterly results.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher as investors assessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts after resilient US jobs and retail data eased concerns about the world’s largest
economy. Spot gold trades around $3,355 an ounce, practically unchanged for the week. Fed President Mary Daly said it’s reasonable for policymakers to plan on two cuts this year, emphasizing that the central bank should not wait too long before acting. Traders
will now watch for the outcome of a gathering of Fed officials at the end of this month to get a clearer sense of their policy direction.  Platinum also edged higher, remaining close to the highest in a decade. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures
+1.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil climbed after drone strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields fueled supply concerns and the EU agreed to fresh Russian sanctions. Strong summer demand for fuels
like diesel helped counter concerns about a potential supply glut later this year. European Union states have approved a fresh sanctions package on Russia over its war against Ukraine, including a revised oil price cap and new banking restrictions. The package
will see about 20 more Russian banks cut off the international payments system SWIFT and face a full transaction ban, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in third countries. The cap on Russian oil, currently set at $60 per barrel,
will be set dynamically at 15% below market rates moving forward. WTI +1%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas +0.4%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar extends yesterday’s decline seen after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates this
month. Still, the dollar is heading for a second successive weekly gain, bouncing from a 3-1/2 year low hit over two weeks ago. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are leading gains against the greenback. The yen trades in a narrow range as all eyes turn
to the upper house election set for July 20. US$ Index -0.45%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.4%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD +0.55%, NZDUSD +0.7%, USDCHF -0.5%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -0.95%, USDNOK -1.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.3%, Ethereum +5.8%.  Bitcoin hovers around $120,000
while Ethereum jumps
after the US House of Representatives passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional assets like the US dollar.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Abbott (ABT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $145
    • Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Chipotle (CMG) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $65
    • Cognizant (CTSH) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $90
    • Materion (MTRN) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $112
    • Synovus (SNV) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $62
      • Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $65
    • TransAlta (TA CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$20
  • Downgrades
    • Alcoa (AA) Cut to Hold at CFRA; PT $32
    • BlueLinx (BXC) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $80
    • Boralex (BLX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$36
    • Clarivate (CLVT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $4.50
    • Clearside Biomedical (CLSD) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Neutral at Chardan Capital Markets
      • Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT $2
    • Elevance (ELV) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $310
    • Lundin Gold (LUG CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$70
    • Matson (MATX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $115
    • Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $1,350
    • O-I Glass (OI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $15
    • Pason Systems (PSI CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$13
    • Rexford Industrial (REXR) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $38
    • Symbotic (SYM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$58
  • Initiations
    • Aebi Schmidt Holding (AEBI) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • American Healthcare REIT (AHR) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $41
    • BitFuFu (FUFU) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $7.31
    • Blue Moon Metals Inc (MOON CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Blue Owl Technology Fina (OTF) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Carpenter Tech (CRS) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $338.59
    • Confluent (CFLT) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $31
    • Daqo New Energy (DQ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $27
    • Domo (DOMO) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $19
    • First Phosphate (FSP/H CN) Rated New Buy at Fundamental Research; PT C$1.15
    • Marcus Corp (MCS) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $24
    • MongoDB (MDB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $247
    • Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$31.60
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $52
    • S&T Bancorp (STBA) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $42
    • SentinelOne (S) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $24
    • Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $261
    • SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT C$18.55
    • Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
    • Verint (VRNT) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $40

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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