Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Powell speaks, Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity; 10:00ET Richmond
Fed Business Conditions, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index; 1:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks

Highlights and News:  

• BESSENT: ABOUT TO ANNOUNCE A RASH OF TRADE DEALS WITHIN DAYS
• BESSENT: A LOT OF DEALS INCLUDE SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS IN US
• BESSENT: WILL MEET CHINA COUNTERPARTS IN STOCKHOLM MONDAY, TUESDAY
• BESSENT SEES NO REASON FOR POWELL TO STEP DOWN NOW
• Oracle & OpenAI Partnership to Build 4.5 Gigawatts of Extra Stargate Data Center Space in US
• ISRAEL CHIEF OF STAFF: CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN ISN’T OVER
• Goldman held takeover talks with Northern Trust earlier this year: Semafor
• AstraZeneca plans to invest $50 billion in the US before 2030

Global stocks inched lower as investors eyed the progress of trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. Several countries are hurrying
to secure deals with the White House ahead of the deadline, with officials from Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the European Union scheduled to meet with their US counterparts this week. Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before the tariff
deadline, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be the latest foreign leader eager to make a deal before the deadline when he visits Trump in the Oval Office later today. Among other nations hoping
for positive trade talks.  Malaysia is said to be seeking a milder US tariff rate of 20%.  AstraZeneca Plc plans to invest $50 billion in the US before 2030, becoming the latest European pharma company to ratchet up spending in the country. UK government borrowing
came in more than forecast in June, a setback for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that will fan speculation over potential tax hikes to shore up the public finances.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures wavered as investors braced for news from companies on how tariffs are filtering through to their earnings. After hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is
trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits and hasn’t posted a 1% up or down day since late June. GM’s second-quarter profit fell as Trump’s tariffs chopped $1.1 billion from earnings. RTX Corp cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full
year. The world’s largest asset managers are leaning harder into the stock rally by betting on the “Trump put.” Invesco, Fidelity, and JPMorgan AM are reinforcing bets across global tech shares as well as on emerging-market assets.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.02%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Calix (CALX) rises 3% after the communication software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that
is seen as strong. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) falls 2% after the stablecoin issuer was downgraded to sell from neutral at Compass Point Research & Trading as it sees more competition for Circle now that the US stablecoin bill has passed. CSX (CSX) rises
4% after Semafor reported that Berkshire Hathaway-owned BNSF is working with Goldman Sachs to explore a takeover of a rival. It wasn’t immediately clear whether BNSF has its eye on Norfolk Southern or CSX, report says. D.R. Horton (DHI) gains 6% after the
homebuilder narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year. General Motors (GM) falls 3% after second-quarter profit fell as Trump’s tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and parts chopped $1.1 billion from adjusted earnings. Medpace (MEDP) gains 44% after the
clinical research company raised its sales and profit guidance. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) climbs 1% after receiving a bullish initiation from TD Cowen, which added the cruise operator to its top picks. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) falls 6% after the chipmaker
issued a third-quarter revenue forecast that missed estimates. Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) falls 2%, on course to extend losses into a third session, as Barclays downgrades the stock to equal-weight from overweight. Sherwin Williams (SHW) drops 3% after the
paint company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. IQVIA (IQV) gains ~8%; Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Increase; 2025 Guidance Updated.

Communication Services sector has been underperforming the broader market this month but outperformed yesterday after XLC/SPY tested the 200dma in the pair on Friday.

European gauges slip as investors reacted to a mixed batch of earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is off the lows of the day, with chemicals and technology shares
lagging, while utilities and media outperform. Lindt & Spruengli shares fall as much as 7.5%, after the chocolate maker reported weaker-than-expected volume growth and first-half earnings missed. Givaudan shares drop as much as 7.2% after like-for like sales
missed. Sartorius shares drop as much as 8.5% after the German lab equipment maker reported results. TietoEVRY falls as much as 13% after the Finnish software and services firm reported “another soft quarter,” according to Morgan Stanley. Norsk Hydro gained
as much as 4.7% after reporting a solid set of second-quarter figures, with a significant beat in its Energy division. Compass Group surged as much as 8.9% after the catering and support services company lifted its full-year guidance and announced the acquisition
of Dutch caterer Vermaat. Centrica shares gain as much as 6.8% after the energy company agreed to take a 15% stake in the UK’s Sizewell C nuclear power plant. Greencore Group shares jump as much as 12% after the food manufacturer lifted its profit outlook
for the year. Stoxx 600 -0.5%, DAX -1%, CAC -0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.02%. Chemicals -1.7%, Aero & Defense -1.4%, Industrial Goods -1.1%, Construction -1.1%, Technology -1%. Utilities +0.8%, Media +0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.3%, weighed down by losses in South Korean and Taiwanese chipmaker shares. South Korean
stocks retreated from near an all-time high ahead of this week’s tariff talks with the US and upcoming earnings releases. Japanese shares had a volatile session after returning from a holiday on Monday, as investors weighed policy implications from the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party’s historic setback in Sunday’s elections. Prime Minister Ishiba’s plan to remain in his role alleviated some worries for now. China stocks closed at an eight-month high, while Hong Kong shares extended gains to a multi-year peak, driven
by construction and power firms after work began on a major dam project in Tibet. Chinese coal shares jumped in the afternoon, with traders citing unverified documents circulating online about government-mandated production cuts. Stocks related to Hainan gain
as China will hold a press conference on free-trade port development Wednesday. Taiwan -1.5%, Thailand -1.4%, Kospi -1.3%, Indonesia -0.7%, Sensex was flat. Vietnam +1.6%, CSI 300 +0.8%, New Zealand +0.6%, Hang Seng Index +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.1%, Topix +0.05%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries steadied before speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next
week, where the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady for now and potentially begin cuts in October. Potential catalysts are in short supply as the US economic calendar is light and Fed policymakers are in self-imposed external communications
blackout ahead of their July 29-30 meeting, however Chair Powell is slated to give welcoming remarks at a regulatory conference in Washington at 8:30ET. 30-year yield is +1bp; 10-year yield is flat; 2-year yield -1.5bps, with the 2s10s and 5s30s curve +~1bp.
Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $21 billion 10-year TIPS new issue Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold inches lower after touching the highest in a month. Investors are cautiously weighing the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path ahead of next
week’s policy decision. Officials have recently expressed differing views on how Trump’s tariff agenda will impact inflation. Swaps markets show virtually zero possibility of a cut to Fed rates next week. Iron ore headed toward the highest in nearly five months
as traders eyed China’s prospective supply-side reforms for the steel industry and plans for a massive dam project.  Spot gold %, Silver +0.05%, Copper futures +0.3%.

ENERGY:   

Oil is lower for a third straight day on concerns the brewing trade war between major crude consumers will curb fuel demand growth by reducing economic activity.
A weaker dollar has limited some losses, while stronger distillate profit margins due to low inventories are supporting crude prices. Meanwhile, Iran intends to continue its nuclear enrichment programme, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview
with Fox News on Monday. WTI -1%, Brent -1%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB -1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied in a tight range following Monday’s sharp selloff as traders await speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair
Jerome Powell today.  Aussie$ dips after RBA minutes stress cautious approach to rate cuts. The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index eased on Monday to the lowest level since March.  US$ Index -0.02%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD +0.02%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD -0.1%,
NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.02%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK +0.05%.

Bitcoin +1.9%, Ethereum -1.3%. JPMorgan might start lending directly against clients’ crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum next year, the FT reported.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Booz Allen (BAH) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $14
• Paymentus (PAY) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $40
• STMicro (STMPA FP) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $50
• United Natural (UNFI) Raised to Buy at Northcoast; PT $36
• Up Fintech Holding (TIGR) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $14
• Zions (ZION) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $60
• Downgrades
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $120
• Bombardier (BBD/B CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$173
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Cut to Sell at Compass Point; PT $130
• Fortive (FTV) Cut to Hold at Melius; PT $62
• Guild Holdings (GHLD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $20
• HF Sinclair (DINO) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $51
• Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $224
• Masco (MAS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $70
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Sell at Phillip Secs; PT $950
• NNN REIT (NNN) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• On Holding (ONON) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $66
• Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $18
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT C$164.18
• Valero Energy (VLO) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $140
• Initiations
• ACT Energy Technologies (ACX CN) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James
• Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) ADRs Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $43.74
• Bitcoin Treasury Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14
• Carnival (CCL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $36
• Core Scientific (CORZ) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $20
• Electromed (ELMD) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $29
• Fireweed Metals (FWZ CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• InfuSystem Holdings (INFU) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Intel (INTC) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital
• MaxCyte (MXCT) Reinstated Overweight at Stephens; PT $6
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $31
• Radiopharm (RAD AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital; PT $18
• Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Hold at Melius; PT $56
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $405
• Tiziana Life Sciences (TLSA) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke