Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders; 11:00ET KC Fed Services; Trump visits Scotland

Highlights and News:  

• US PRELIM JUNE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL 9.3% M/M; EST. -10.7%
• NETANYAHU: CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS TO GAZA DEAL WITH US
• Facebook will no longer accept political, election or issue ads in EU in response to a new law there
• Thailand Warns Cambodia Conflict May Spark War
• Paramount’s merger with Skydance won FCC approval
• Israel to allow foreign countries to drop aid into Gaza from today

Global stocks eased ahead of a crucial week for markets that includes Trump’s tariff deadline and key central bank meetings. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal
said he was confident that his country could reach an agreement with the US before the August 1 target date, while Brazil and Mexico looked to broaden trade ties. Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are expected to hold rates steady at next week’s policy
meetings, but traders are focusing on the subsequent comments to gauge the timing of the next move. China’s budget deficit climbed to a fresh record in the first half of the year, highlighting intensified government efforts to shore up domestic demand. British
retail sales data for June was slightly below analyst expectations. Confidence among German businesses improved slightly at the start of third quarter as Europe and the US moved closer to a trade deal.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures held steady following record closes for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in the previous session and awaited clarity on trade negotiations ahead of next week’s tariff deadline.
Intel shares dropped premarket on concern the chipmaker is more focused on cutting costs than restoring its technological edge. The CEO called investments begun under his predecessor excessive and unwise. Meanwhile, Paramount Global rose 2% after regulators
approved its $8.4 billion merger with Skydance Media. Google has made a strategic investment in Milan-based Energy Dome, which has developed a CO2 battery technology to support the energy transition through long-duration energy storage solutions. BofA’s Michael
Hartnett again offered another warning on stocks: “Bigger retail, bigger liquidity, bigger volatility, bigger bubble.” Next week brings the next Fed interest rate meeting, the closely watched monthly payrolls report, and earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta and
Microsoft.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) falls 8% after offering convertible notes as well as common stock in a separate, registered direct offering. Booz Allen
Hamilton (BAH) climbs about 1% after the after the defense contractor posted 1Q profit that beat the average analyst estimate. Charter Communications (CHTR) falls 6% after the cable company reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations. Centene
(CNC) reversed a loss of 12% during its earnings call, after the health insurer reported adjusted loss per share for the second quarter, surprising analysts who’d forecasted a profit. Comfort Systems (FIX) is up 14% after the HVAC company reported revenue
for the second quarter that beat estimates. Coursera (COUR) jumps 28% after the online education company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) rises 11% after the company reported net sales for the first quarter that
beat the average analyst estimate. Edwards Life (EW) shares are up 7% after the medical devices company raised the low end of its sales forecast range for the year. Intel Corp. (INTC) falls 8% after the chipmaker forecast steeper third-quarter losses than
Wall Street had estimated and announced plans to slash jobs. Newmont Corp (NEM) advances 2% after the precious metals miner reported a beat. Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV) falls 9% after Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. (PNFP) agreed to acquire the company
in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion. Pinnacle (PNFP) shares are down 5%. Sarepta (SRPT) tumbles 11% after an evaluating committee of the European Medicines Agency recommended against the approval of the company’s gene therapy Elevidys.

European gauges are lower as disappointing earnings fueled worries about the impact of tariffs. The financial services and telecommunications sectors are the biggest
laggards, while auto stocks outperform. Puma fell as much as 19% after a major profit warning. Signify shares plunged as much as 13% after its earnings missed expectations. Valeo fell as much as 16% after a sales guidance cut. Remy Cointreau shares rose 6%
after the French group raised its operating profit target and reported higher than expected revenues for the first quarter. Nexity jumped as much as 16% after the French real estate firm reported first half-year results. Close Brothers gained as much as 13%
in London, after the financial services group agreed to sell its execution and securities business Winterflood Securities to Marex Group. Volkswagen cut its outlook as tariffs weighed on Audi and Porsche earnings. Volkswagen AG reversed course to rise as much
as 3.8% despite lowering its financial outlook for the year due to the escalating cost of duties. LVMH also gained over 2% after initially underperforming following disappointing results.  Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX -0.7%, CAC is flat, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Telecom -1%,
Financial Services -1%, Food & Bev -1%, Real Estate -1%, Media -1%. Autos +0.5%.

Shares in Asia fell as investors braced for the US tariff deadline and a Federal Reserve policy decision due next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.2%, with
Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Hong Kong led declines among regional gauges, with notable losses in Japan and India. Japanese stocks slipped as investors took profits from this week’s strong rally, while disappointing earnings from some manufacturers
hurt sentiment. Vietnamese shares outperformed, hitting to a record high, aided by the return of foreign fund inflows amid optimism about a trade deal with the US. Chinese AI application stocks rise before the World AI Conference to be held July 26-28 in Shanghai.
A third round of US-China trade talks and a Bank of Japan rate decision are among key points to watch next week. Hang Seng Index -1.1%, Nikkei 225 -0.9%, Sensex -0.9%, CSI 300 -0.5%, ASX 200 -0.5%, Philippines -0.5%, Singapore -0.3%, Taiwan -0.05%. Indonesia
+0.2%, Thailand +0.4%, Vietnam +0.65%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are under slight pressure as US trading gets under way, trailing steeper losses in most euro-zone bond markets. European bonds dropped for a third day
as traders reduced their bets on a final European Central Bank interest-rate cut this year. German 10-year bond yields rose as much as seven basis points, while 30-year yields approached the highest since 2011. US yields are higher by less than 2bp inside
Thursday’s ranges with the curve slightly steeper. Next week’s Treasury auction cycle — the final one of the May-July financing quarter — is accelerated and compressed into Monday (2- and 5-year notes) and Tuesday (7-year notes).

METALS: 

Gold declines as the dollar rose after Trump downplayed his clash with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The precious metal is under pressure on fading safe-haven
demand after the US-Japan trade deal. That said, gold’s safe-haven appeal could quickly return on trade tensions ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Spot gold -0.8%, Silver -0.7%, Copper futures +0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil inched higher on optimism over US trade talks ahead of a key deadline next week, and as tightness in diesel markets boosts sentiment. Brent crude was above $69
a barrel after adding 1% on Thursday, while WTI traded near $66. OPEC+ will next meet on August 3 to decide on production levels. Venezuela was given a production reprieve by a US decision to let Chevron resume pumping oil in the country. Reports of Russian
plans to restrict gasoline exports to most countries is adding to support. WTI +0.3%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas +1.3%, RBOB +0.4%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar firmed after Trump downplayed his clash with Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a tour of the central bank’s renovation project on Thursday.
Focus is on key US data next week including GDP and payrolls. Sterling fell after UK retail sales rose less than forecast. The euro fell versus the dollar, trimming its weekly advance, yet the options outlook remained bullish as traders continued to reduce
their bets on a final European Central Bank interest-rate cut this year. There’s little reason for the ECB to lower interest rates further unless the economy suffers a major blow, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. The yen underperforms
after data showed Tokyo inflation slowed for a second month; Bank of Japan officials see the possibility of mulling another interest rate hike this year after the US and Japan struck a trade deal this week, according to sources. Tokyo’s CPI rose 2.9% in July
from a year earlier, slower than estimated. It’s the first time the pace of gains slipped below 3% since March. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.4%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -0.2%

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Carvana (CVNA) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $450
• Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) ADRs Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $34
• Dick’s Sporting (DKS) Raised to Hold at Gordon Haskett
• Estee Lauder (EL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $101
• Gilead (GILD) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $133
• Global Payments (GPN) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Hess Midstream (HESM) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $31
• MSCI (MSCI) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $650
• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Pacira BioSciences (PCRX) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
• SL Green (SLG) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $71
• Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $285
• Waste Connections (WCN CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$300
• Downgrades
• Ameriprise (AMP) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $50
• City Office REIT (CIO) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $7
• Darling Ingredients (DAR) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $36
• Dow (DOW) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $32
• Flex (FLEX) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $50
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT $75
• Molina (MOH) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $180
• Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $210
• Norfolk Southern (NSC) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $300
• Novocure (NVCR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $14.50
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $14
• P&G (PG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $170
• PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $13.50
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group; PT $110
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $133
• StoneCo (STNE) Cut to Neutral at Safra; PT $16
• Symbotic (SYM) Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $50
• Synovus (SNV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $58
• Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$56
• Tesla (TSLA) Cut to Hold at China Renaissance; PT $349
• Cut to Sell at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $223
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $510
• Winpak (WPK CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$48
• Initiations
• Alumis (ALMS) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
• Applied Opto (AAOI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $32
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $145
• Chemed (CHE) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $500
• Hess Midstream (HESM) Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $48
• HP Enterprise (HPE) Resumed Buy at Citi
• LifeStance Health (LFST) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $8
• LSI Industries (LYTS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $20
• NPK International (NPKI) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $12
• NuScale Power (SMR) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $41
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $14
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $170
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT $325.50
• Teladoc (TDOC) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $10

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke