Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on July 28, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:30ET Dallas Fed Mfg Activity

Highlights and News:  

  • US and EU avert trade war with 15% tariff deal
  • EU’s Sefcovic: Strategic US AI Chip Purchases Are Part Of EU-US Trade Deal
  • SEFCOVIC: 0% EU-US TARIFF LIST REMAINS OPEN TO ADDITIONS
  • US-China trade talks in Stockholm through Tuesday
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “I think trade is in a very good place with China”
  • GREER: DON’T EXPECT ENORMOUS BREAKTHROUGH TODAY ON CHINA TALKS

 

Global stocks advance after the European Union secured a trade deal with President Trump over the weekend. The agreement between two economies that account for almost
a third of global trade will see the US impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. The EU will spend $600 billion on US investments and $750 billion on purchases of US energy, while opening up some important parts of its market. Many of the specifics of
the deal were not immediately known. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the deal was “the best we could get.” European companies reacted with both relief and concern to the framework of the deal, acknowledging what was seen as an unbalanced
deal but one that avoided a deeper trade war. US and Chinese officials are convening to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days and explore additional measures to reduce trade tensions. The meeting will include discussions about US levies tied to fentanyl
trafficking and Chinese purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to halt hostilities after Trump said he wouldn’t agree to trade deals with either side as long as the border conflict continued.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures edge higher after the EU/US trade deal eased fears of a damaging trade war and on signs the US and China will extend their truce. UK PM Keir Starmer will meet Trump
in Scotland today in a bid to remove remaining obstacles to their trade deal and press for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. Morgan Stanley strategists reiterated that a recovery in earnings revisions is underway, and that they are leaning more toward their 12-month
bull-case of 7,200 for the S&P 500. This week’s packed calendar may set the tone for the rest of the year. There’s the Fed meeting on Wednesday, earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft and key US data including inflation figures, GDP and non-farm payrolls. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, LNG stocks including Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Venture Global (VG) rise after the EU committed to big purchases of American energy products as
part of the trade deal. Cheniere +5%, Venture Global +6%. ASML’s US-listed shares (ASML) gain 3% after a key customer, Samsung, won a contract to make AI chips for Tesla. ATAI Life Sciences (ATAI) sinks 11%. The company is a majority shareholder of Recognify
Life Sciences, whose Phase 2b trial missed a primary endpoint. Revvity (RVTY) falls 7% after the life sciences firm trimmed its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year. Sarepta (SRPT) is down 2% as the FDA probes the death of an 8-year-old boy
in Brazil who received the drugmaker’s Elevidys. Brazilian authorities have said that the death was unlikely to be due to the drug.  Magnificent Seven stocks: Tesla (TSLA) +1.6%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.7%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.4%, Alphabet
(GOOGL) +0.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Apple (AAPL) +0.2%.

European gauges are mixed as the US and the European Union agreed to a tariff deal, easing fears about a prolonged trade war. Stoxx 600 is off the early highs with
technology, health care and real estate leading gains, while media underperforms.  The EU’s Sefcovic said US AI chip purchases are part of the deal. European chipmakers rise after Samsung won a contract to build AI chips for Tesla. Automotive stocks jumped
in early trading but later slipped as investors focused on more negative aspects of the deal. Forvia shares rise as much as 12% reporting profits that beat expectations in the first half and confirmed its guidance for the full year. Ceres Power Holdings surges
up to 34% as Doosan begins mass production of fuel cell stacks using Ceres’ solid oxide technology. ProSieben shares surge 11% after MFE raised its takeover bid for the German broadcaster. European pharma stocks advance after the US agreed to set a 15% tariff
on pharmaceutical imports from the EU. European car shares erase earlier gains as analysts point out more negative aspects of the trade deal and after Audi cut its outlook.  Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Technology +1.3%, Healthcare
+1.1%, Real Estate +0.9%. Media -1.2%, Food & Bev -0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower as investors assessed a US trade deal with the European Union and considered the potential for negotiations with other nations, including
China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3%, with Advantest weighing on the gauge after a UBS downgrade. Japanese and Indian shares were among the biggest decliners in the region. Samsung rose after it signed a $16.5 billion pact to make chips for Tesla.
Investors are closely monitoring as Washington and Beijing officials meet today to extend a tariff deadline past mid-August and seek additional ways to ease trade tensions. South Korean financial shares tumbled after a regulator meeting prompted by criticism
of the sector’s over-reliance on interest income — led to a pledge to diversify revenue sources. China industrial earnings fell 4.3% in June, the second monthly decline.  Nikkei 225 -1.1%, Sensex -0.7%, Philippines -0.5%, Singapore -0.5%,. Vietnam +1.7%, Indonesia
+0.9%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%, Kospi +0.4%, ASX 200 +0.4%, CSI 300 +0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed in early US trading, following weekend announcement of a US-EU trade accord.  US 10-year yield is +1bp with 2-year yield -1bp. 2s10s
curve steeper by 2bps and 5s30s is about flat.  An accelerated and compressed coupon auction cycle begins with $69b 2-year note sale at 11:30am and $70b 5-year at 1pm; it concludes Tuesday with $44 billion 7-year, the last coupon auction of the May-July financing
quarter.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold eased slightly to near $3,332/oz, holding near its lowest in nearly two weeks on reduced appetite for traditional safe havens after another trade deal.
Still, there are lingering questions about the scope of the pact, including details over metals — signaling potential challenges when it comes to implementation. The South China Morning Post reported that the US and China are expected to extend their tariff
truce by another three months, citing unnamed sources. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver -0.1%, Copper futures +0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rose after the US-EU trade agreement, while Houthi militants vowed to target ships dealing with Israeli ports.   Oil traders expect OPEC+ to agree to another
production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for September at a video conference on Aug. 3. There’s a growing chorus of warnings about crude weakening due to a supply glut. The surplus will be close to 200 million barrels in the second half, according to
BofA. WTI +1.7%, Brent +1.7%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB +1.6%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the euro fell as investors greeted the trade agreement between the US and European Union with cautious relief, with concerns over the economic
fallout from still-lofty tariff rates. “Europe avoided disaster, but locked itself into an imbalanced, high-stakes pact with no clear exit ramp,” said Nigel Green, chief executive officer of global financial advisory firm deVere Group.  The dollar strengthens
for a third straight session with antipodean currencies leading losses among the G-10 currencies. Traders are looking ahead to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday as well as growth, inflation and labor market data from the US. US$ Index +0.6%, GBPUSD -0.05%,
EURUSD -0.7%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.5%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.7%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK +0.4%, USDNOK +0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.2%, Ethereum +1.5%

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alector (ALEC) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $3.50
    • Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe
    • Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $26
    • MARA Holdings (MARA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $22
    • Nike (NKE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $93
    • Oklo (OKLO) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $86
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $230
    • USCB Financial (USCB) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $20
    • Weatherford (WFRD) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
  • Downgrades
    • American Eagle (AEO) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $9
    • Bilibili (BILI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $24
    • Centene (CNC) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $38
    • Cisco (CSCO) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
    • Core & Main (CNM) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $68
    • First Citizens (FCNCA) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $2,150
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
      • Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $670
    • Halliburton (HAL) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • IREN Ltd (IREN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $16
    • NetEase (NTES) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $140
    • Riot Platforms (RIOT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $15
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $10
    • Synovus (SNV) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT C$61
    • Tenet (THC) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Titan America (TTAM) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $15
    • Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
  • Initiations
    • Accenture (ACN) Rated New Reduce at HSBC; PT $240
    • Allarity Therapeutics (ALLR) US Rated New Buy at Ascendiant Capital Markets; PT $9
    • Ares Management (ARES) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Canadian National (CNR CN) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • CapsoVision (CV) Rated New Speculative Buy at Benchmark; PT $5
      • Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $6
    • CoastalSouth Bancshares (COSO) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • CoStar (CSGP) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $99
    • Dentalcorp (DNTL CN) Rated New Outperform at ATB Capital; PT C$12
    • Electronic Arts (EA) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $185
      • Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $168
    • Fold Holdings (FLD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $6.50
    • Gold Fields (GFI SJ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $33.30
    • Horace Mann (HMN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $48
    • Indivior (INDV) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $20
    • Innate Pharma (IPH FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $8
    • Intensity Therapeutics (INTS) Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity; PT $3
    • JBS (JBS) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $22
    • Lionsgate Studios (LION) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $8.50
    • MongoDB (MDB) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $280
    • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) US Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $65
    • North West Co (NWC CN) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT C$60
    • NXP Semi (NXPI) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $262.40
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Daiwa; PT $20
    • PulteGroup (PHM) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $138.60
    • Semler Scientific (SMLR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $61
    • Take-Two (TTWO) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $265
      • Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $265
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $24

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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