Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ETTrade Balance, Imports, Exports; 9:45ET S&P Global US Services PMI, US Composite
PMI; 10:00ET ISM Services; 1:00ET 3-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

• SWISS LEADER TO TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON TODAY TO DISCUSS TARIFFS
• Japan’s trade chief heads to the US to push for a promised car tariff cut
• US tariff of 15% on EU goods is all-inclusive, EU official says
• Fed’s Daly Says May Need More Than Two Rate Cuts: Reuters
• Palantir Rises as AI Drives 48% Jump in Sales, up more than 500% over the past year
• SoftBank is building up stakes in Nvidia and TSMC to focus on AI
• TRUMP SAYS BESSENT DECLINED CONSIDERATION FOR FED CHAIR
• World Humanoid Robot Games set for Aug. 15-17 in Beijing

Global stocks nudge higher as strong tech earnings and dovish Fed comments support risk sentiment. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to deliver three consecutive
25 basis-point rate cuts starting in September, with a 50 basis-point move possible if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment. Economists raised their growth forecasts for the euro area and Japan following relatively benign trade agreements,
while arguing that Friday’s US jobs report indicated the economy is hovering near stall speed. Data from Asia’s two biggest economies showed resilience in their service sectors. In Japan, the S&P Global final services PMI rose to 53.6 in July from 51.7 in
June. China’s services activity last month ran at its fastest pace in more than a year. French industrial production climbed the most in five years, rising 3.8% in June from the previous month. Switzerland’s President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister
Guy Parmelin will fly to the US today to present a more attractive trade offer in a bid to lower a 39% US import tariff.  Brazil’s Supreme Court put former President Bolsonaro under house arrest on Monday ahead of his trial for an alleged coup plot.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures extended a rebound driven by strong corporate earnings and bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Fed President Mary Daly said the time is nearing for interest
rate cuts given mounting evidence that the job market is softening and there are no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation. Palantir Technologies gained post-market after raising its revenue forecast for the second time this year on expectations of sustained
demand for its artificial intelligence services. Pfizer shares jumped more than 3% in premarket trading after the drugmaker beat analysts’ estimates for revenue and raised it earnings guidance. Vertex Pharmaceuticals slumped after US regulators said they didn’t
see a path forward for broader use of its non-opioid pain drug. On Monday, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and Evercore ISI all cautioned that the S&P 500 Index is due for a near-term drop in the weeks and months ahead.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.15%.

In pre-market trading, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rises 6% after reporting a 48% increase in revenue for the second quarter to more than $1 billion, citing the “astonishing
impact” of artificial intelligence technology on its business. Agilon Health (AGL) sinks 33% after the company, which runs a platform for primary-care physicians treating Medicare patients, suspended its 2025 guidance and said its CEO has stepped down. Ameresco
(AMRC) climbs 21% after the electric energy company reported second-quarter revenue that beat. Caterpillar (CAT) falls 3% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly profit. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) slumps 13% after the telehealth company reported second-quarter
revenue that disappointed, with analysts noting weak sales trends for its weight-loss drugs. Inspire Medical (INSP) tumbles 28% after the medical-device maker cut its revenue guidance for the full year and said the US commercial launch for its Inspire V system
is going slower than expected. Kyndryl (KD) falls 8% after the IT firm reported a 2.6% drop in sales. MercadoLibre (MELI) drops 5.5% after the e-commerce firm posted earnings that missed estimates. ThredUp (TDUP) rallies 12% after the clothing exchange and
recycling company forecast revenue for the third quarter that beat. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) falls 13% after the biotech firm said it won’t advance Journavx to a phase-3 trial, as the FDA doesn’t see a path forward for broad use of the drug. Vimeo (VMEO)
rises 15% after the video software company raised its 2025 forecast for adjusted Ebitda. Zoetis (ZTS) climbs 7% after the animal-health firm boosted its adjusted profit and revenue guidance for the full year, following better-than-expected results.

European gauges are broadly higher, aided by solid earnings from BP, Diageo and Infineon. Swiss stocks gain as traders appear willing to look past the threat of a 39%
tariff on exports to America. Smith & Nephew shares gain as much as 17% after first-half earnings blew past estimates and the UK medical-device maker announced a $500 million buyback. Deutsche Post gains as much 5.3% after the German logistics giant posted
a strong second-quarter earnings beat.  Interroll shares rise as much as 6.5% after analysts at Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy, saying “the tide is turning” in the warehouse automation sector. Naturgy falls as much as 8.2%, making it the worst performing
stock on Spain’s IBEX-35, after a share placement at a discount. Domino’s Pizza plunged as much as 20% as the firm cut its full-year guidance. On the tariff front, the European Union is expecting Trump to announce executive actions this week to formalize the
bloc’s lower levies for cars and grant exemptions from levies for some industrial goods such as aviation parts. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Media +1.1%, Energy +1.1%, Autos +0.9%, Insurance +0.9%, Travel & Leisure +0.9%. Personal
Goods -0.6%, Luxury -0.5%, Utilities -0.25%.

Shares in Asia rose, helped by a jump in technology shares, as risk sentiment rebounded amid increasing bets on easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%, with Tencent and SoftBank among the biggest boosts. Hang Seng and mainland indexes climbed after China’s services activity unexpectedly accelerates to fastest pace in over a year. Indian stocks dipped slightly after Trump
said he would “substantially” raise tariffs on the South Asian nation’s exports over its purchases of Russian oil. South Korean stocks in the EV battery supply chain advance, led by Ecopro BM after it beat second-quarter operating profit estimates. Mitsubishi
Heavy shares climbed 5.7% in Tokyo, leading peers higher, after Australia selected the Japanese company to build a new class of naval frigate. Kospi +1.6%, Thailand +1.4%, Vietnam +1.2%, ASX 200 +1.2%, Taiwan +1.2%, CSI 300 +0.8%, Topix +0.7%, Hang Seng Index
+0.7%, Indonesia +0.7%, Philippines +0.1%. Sensex -0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries slipped across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising ~3 basis points to 4.22% as the biggest week of Treasury note and bond sales since May weighs on
prices. US yields cheaper by 3bp to 2bp across the curve in a slight bear flattening move, as front-end leads losses ahead of $58 billion 3-year note sale. Today’s auction is followed by $42 billion 10-year notes and $25 billion 30-year bonds Wednesday and
Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold slipped due to an uptick in the dollar, though prices remained near a two-week high on growing expectations of a US rate cut in September. Gold’s strength this
week followed reports of revised labor market data and President Trump’s subsequent firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics director Erika McEntarfer. South Africa-based miner Sibanye-Stillwater has asked the United States to consider imposing a tariff on Russian
palladium imports to support the long-term viability of US supplies. Spot gold -0.7%, Silver -0.1%, Copper futures -0.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil extended declines as investors weighed the impact of risks to Russian supplies, with Trump stepping up his threat to penalize India for buying Moscow’s crude.
China’s imports of Iranian crude fell nearly 30% in July, according to Kpler and Vortexa data. US shale producer Diamondback Energy is cutting spending and delaying some fracking, warning of a crude supply glut that may pressure prices. WTI -1%, Brent -0.9%,
US Nat Gas +2%, RBOB -0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges higher while Swiss franc fell for a second session amid muted demand for havens and continued focus on US tariffs on Swiss goods.
The Japanese yen slipped while minutes of its June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the central bank would consider resuming interest rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate. European companies are the most worried about the
impact of currency fluctuations in four years, with the euro’s strength in 2025 eating into earnings outlooks. Australia’s dollar eases as household spending decelerates and job ads decline. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.35%, USDJPY +0.35%, AUDUSD
-0.2%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Bitcoin +0.05%, Ethereum -0.9%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• ATI Inc. (ATI) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
• Bar Harbor Bank (BHB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $35
• BCE (BCE CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$40
• CommScope (COMM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17
• Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $19
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $40
• Electronic Arts (EA) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $192
• Fortis (FTS CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$76
• Globe Life (GL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $166
• Palantir (PLTR) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $160
• Penske Automotive (PAG) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $175
• Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $180
• Wayfair (W) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $93
• Downgrades
• Akamai (AKAM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $85
• Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler
• Block (XYZ) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $73
• Bristol Myers (BMY) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $42
• Ichor (ICHR) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $18
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• Cut to Hold at Nephron Research; PT $130
• Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $110
• Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• International Paper (IP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $54
• Lava Therapeutics (LVTX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $1.50
• ON Semi (ON) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Selective Insurance (SIGI) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $72
• Initiations
• APA Corp (APA) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $24
• Axon (AXON) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $825
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $26
• Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT C$84.09
• Liberty Formula One (FWONA) Rated New Neutral at BofA; PT $110
• Lionsgate Studios (LION) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $9
• MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Northview Residential REIT (NRR-U CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$21
• PJT Partners (PJT) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research
• Quince Therapeutics Inc (QNCX) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens
• QXO Inc (QXO) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
• Vinci (DG FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $40.50
• Zurn Elkay Water (ZWS) Rated New Underperform at Baptista Research

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke