Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 6, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:15ET Rubio meets with Swiss President; 1:00ET 10-Year Note Auction; 2:00ET Fed’s Cook,
Collins speak; 4:10ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 4:30ET Trump to make an announcement in the Oval Office

Highlights and News:  

  • US envoy Witkoff met with Putin and Russian leadership today
  • Israel’s security cabinet is set to meet Thursday to discuss the potential full occupation of the Gaza Strip
  • Trade gap with China shrank to its lowest in more than 21 years
  • US COMPANIES ANNOUNCED $166B IN BUYBACKS IN JULY, HIGHEST MONTHLY TOTAL ON RECORD
  • Swiss President will meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the US’s 39% tariff 
  • Walt Disney to buy most of the NFL’s media businesses in exchange for a 10% stake in ESPN

 

Global stocks posted modest gains as investors evaluated President Trump’s recent tariff threats, underwhelming economic data, and mixed corporate earnings reports.
Trump said he would increase the 25% tariff on imports from India “very substantially” over the next 24 hours, due to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. India’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5% despite a benign inflation
outlook. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter will meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio today on her emergency trip to lower the US’s 39% tariff, while it remains unclear if she will also get to see Trump. German factory orders unexpectedly declined for a second
month in June, falling 1% from May.  UK construction firms suffered the sharpest plunge in output in over five years after a fresh slump in housebuilding, according to a closely watched survey. Trump said Japan would accept imports of Ford’s huge F-150 pickup
trucks, in the latest sign that the two countries are at odds in their understanding of their trade agreement.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are trying to hold onto overnight gains as investors assessed President Trump’s latest tariff threats and a rush of corporate earnings reports. Super Micro Computer
plunged more than 16% in post-market trading after cutting its annual sales forecasts, while Advanced Micro Devices dropped after the company was unable to give a clear outlook for resuming sales in China. Walt Disney shares fell in early trading after revenue
from pay TV and sports disappointed. Uber announced it plans to buy back up to an additional $20 billion in shares. The US Health Department is ending 22 contracts worth almost $500 million to develop vaccines using mRNA technology.  Trump said he will make
his decision on a replacement for outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler before the end of the week.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.15%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI +0.25%.

In pre-market trading, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) drops 5% after the company was unable to give a clear outlook for resuming sales in China. American Woodmark (AMWD)
rises 2% after MasterBrand agreed to buy the company in an all-stock deal with an equity value of $2.4 billion. Arista Networks (ANET) is up 13% after the communication equipment company’s revenue forecast for the third quarter exceeded estimates. Astera Labs
(ALAB) gains 18% after the semiconductor manufacturer reported second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share that beat. Bridgebio (BBIO) sinks 9% after the drugmaker reported second-quarter sales of its recently launched heart drug, Attruby, that
fell short of investors’ high expectations.  Clover Health (CLOV) slumps 10% after the Medicare Advantage health insurer raised its guidance for expected medical costs for the year. Emerson Electric (EMR) falls 7% after the automation technology provider’s
underlying sales grew less than analysts expected. Hinge Health Inc. (HNGE) rallies 12% after reporting 2Q revenue that increased 55% from the year-ago period in the digital physical therapy firm’s first earnings since its May IPO. Klaviyo (KVYO) gains 12%
after the e-marketing solutions provider forecast revenue for the third quarter that beat. Lucid Group (LCID) falls 7% after the electric-vehicle maker lowered its production forecast for the year. Match Group Inc. (MTCH) is up 5% after the company provided
a better-than-expected third-quarter sales forecast. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) climbs 3% as sales picked up in the latest quarter. Snap (SNAP) falls 17% after the social-media company said an issue with its ad platform weighed on revenue growth. Vertex (VERX)
falls 5% after the tax software firm cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

European gauges give up early gains as the healthcare weighs. Novartis, Roche and Novo Nordisk weigh as the US readies tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. Europe’s Stoxx
600 is little changed after erasing an early gain of 0.4% amid mixed results from some of the region’s biggest companies. Bayer AG shares fell after the German chemicals firm’s crop science unit missed sales estimates. Novo Nordisk A/S slipped after providing
more details of a difficult quarter for the Danish drugmaker. Glencore Plc dropped after missing earnings estimates and scrapped plans to shift its main listing to New York from London. ABN Amro Bank NV fell more than 6% after missing net income forecasts.
Zalando SE plunged more than 5% after the online retailer narrowed its full-year revenue forecast. Siemens Energy AG declined after taking a €100 million direct hit from US tariffs. Hiscox shares jump as much as 15% after the insurance company reported first-half
pretax profit that beat. Voestalpine climbs as much as 8.2% and is by far the top performer on the Stoxx 600 basic resources index following its first-quarter results. Kardex rises as much as 5.3% to a record high and Interroll rises over 4% after Berenberg
upgrades its recommendations for the Swiss machinery companies to buy from hold.  Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX flat, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2%.  Healthcare -1.7%, Technology -0.8%, Retail -0.7%. Energy +0.9%, Banks +0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher as optimism in Japan helped offset gloom in the technology sector. Toyota shares gained as much as 2.7% ahead of its quarterly earnings
report. Key gauges climbed in Thailand, Vietnam and Australia. Vietnam’s exports jumped more than expected in July, with buyers racing to avoid a 20% tariff on the country’s exports to the US set to take effect on August 7. Indian stocks edged lower after
the central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate. The Shanghai index reached its highest closing level in over three and a half years driven by optimism for an extended trade truce between the United States and China. Japanese shares advanced on optimism
around the country’s chief trade negotiator’s trip to the US, which could potentially help in securing lower auto tariffs. Meanwhile regional chip-related stocks declined after a stream of negative news, including a threat from Trump that US tariffs on semiconductor
imports will be announced “within the next week or so.”  Vietnam +1.7%, Thailand +1.4%, Topix +1%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Singapore +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Philippines +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.2%, Hang Seng Index +0.05%, Kospi was flat. Indonesia -0.1%, Sensex -0.2%,
Taiwan -0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries dipped, with the 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.23% ahead of an auction of 10-year notes later today and Thursday’s 30-year.  Bunds see similar
price action following German factory orders data and auctions of debt maturing in 2038 and 2042. Sentiment continues to be influenced by shifting US trade policy. US yields are 1bp-3bp higher across tenors with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 1.5bp. Treasury
auction cycle continues with $42 billion 10-year and concludes Thursday with $25 billion 30-year bonds. Tuesday’s 3-year note sale tailed, but bidding metrics were decent.

 

METALS: 

Gold prices eased as US Treasury yields inched higher, while investors stayed cautious ahead of President Trump’s upcoming decisions on Federal Reserve appointments.
Gold stockpiles at Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons registered for delivery — nearly doubling over the past month. Codelco stopped processing ore at its biggest copper mine in Chile after a deadly tunnel collapse
prompted a halt of underground activities. The shutdowns will reduce output of the metal by about 30,000 metric tons a month, a quarter of Codelco’s production. A severe platinum supply crunch has hit trading hubs such as London while US and Chinese demand
surges. New York warehouses soaked up almost 290,000 ounces in the last three weeks alone. Spot gold -0.5%, Silver flat, Copper futures +0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices gain as traders waited to see if Russia evades punitive sanctions and other countries are spared secondary tariffs, with the deadline for Moscow to sign
a peace deal fast approaching. Trump suggested he would hike tariffs on more countries buying Russian energy, including India and China.  US crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would be the biggest weekly drop in
six weeks if confirmed by the EIA. WTI +1.6%, Brent +1.5%, US Nat Gas -0.8%, RBOB +1.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slips ahead of several Federal Reserve speakers later today and as President Trump prepared to fill a coming vacancy on the Federal
Reserve’s Board of Governors. Kiwi is near the top of the G-10 currency leaderboard after New Zealand jobless rate rises less than expected. Asian currencies trade mixed, with the Philippine peso outperforming as the central governor warned of stronger intervention
when needed. Tariffs against India are a concern, but the rupee has already weakened significantly when viewed against its main trading partners. Emerging-market currency volatility is at a one-year low. US$ Index -0.25%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.25%, USDJPY
-0.05%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.55%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +1.1%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • A10 Networks (ATEN) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $22
    • Afya (AFYA) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $17.50
    • AG Growth International (AFN CN) Raised to Outperform at ATB Capital
    • Aramark (ARMK) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $47
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
    • Azenta (AZTA) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
    • BellRing Brands (BRBR) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $50
    • Camden National (CAC) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $44
    • CarMax (KMX) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $58
    • Comerica (CMA) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Cryoport (CYRX) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $16
      • Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $15
    • Digital Turbine (APPS) Raised to Neutral at BofA
    • Driven Brands (DRVN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
    • Edgewell (EPC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $23
    • Grocery Outlet (GO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16
    • Halozyme (HALO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75
    • Hologic (HOLX) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $87
    • Incyte (INCY) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $89
    • JBT Marel (JBTM) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Leidos (LDOS) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $205
    • Monday.com (MNDY) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $310
    • RingCentral (RNG) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $35
    • TopBuild (BLD) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $450
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Xometry (XMTR) Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $41
    • Y-mAbs (YMAB) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $8.60
  • Downgrades
    • Agilon Health (AGL) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $1
    • Atkore (ATKR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • CACI (CACI) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $535
    • Coupang (CPNG) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $27
    • Kemper (KMPR) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $50
    • New Mountain (NMFC) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer; PT $11
    • New Oriental Education (EDU) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $50
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$50
    • SEMrush (SEMR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Snap (SNAP) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Vivid Seats (SEAT) Cut to Hold at Craig-Hallum; PT $2
    • Y-mAbs (YMAB) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT $8.60
      • Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $8.60
      • Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
      • Cut to Hold at Brookline Capital; PT $8.60
  • Initiations
    • Adagene (ADAG) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $7
    • Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • Alcon AG (ALC SW) Resumed Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $93
    • Almonty Industries (AII CN) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT C$9.63
    • Burberry (BRBY LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $20.60
    • Canadian Pacific Kansas (CP CN) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research
    • Ezcorp (EZPW) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $20
    • FirstCash (FCFS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $160
    • Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Indivior (INDV) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $28
    • Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
    • Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $31
    • Riot Platforms (RIOT) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $13.75
    • Xilio (XLO) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $2

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed