Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 12, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN: 
from the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Hourly
Earnings, *CPI*; 2:00ET Federal Budget Balance

Highlights and News:  

 


Global stocks rose after July’s US CPI data came in as expected, with core inflation up 0.3%,its fastest pace since January. Lifting annual core to 3.1% and fueling bets on Fed rate
cuts. Asian markets rallied on Trump’s 90‑day US‑China tariff truce extension, while Europe was mixed as the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.02% with tech weakness offset by gains in defense and mining. Meanwhile, China directed local companies to avoid Nvidia’s H20 chips,
complicating Trump’s potential AI chip deal and impacting AMD accelerators as well. Trump named conservative economist EJ Antoni to head the BLS following the dismissal of Erika McEntarffer. Recent US import data revealed a sharp drop in shipments from China
before the August 11 tariff deadline, raising concerns about risks to US growth and corporate margins despite a 90-day delay on new tariffs.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures edged higher after Tuesday’s inflation report. US core CPI rose 0.3% in July, marking its fastest monthly pace since January, as services prices accelerated; this
lifted the annual core inflation rate to 3.1%, its highest for the year, while headline CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 2.7% annually, both in line with expectations The “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks saw mixed early moves, while cannabis shares jumped
sharply. Tilray leapt 18% and Canopy Growth 8%,after President Trump said he was considering reclassifying marijuana as less dangerous, fueling further upside from Monday’s rally. Hanesbrands soared 41% on news that Gildan Activewear may acquire it for almost
$5b, and On Holding surged 10% after raising its 2025 sales outlook and topping estimates on strong global demand. Conversely, chemical maker Celanese tumbled 15% following a disappointing profit forecast, while PubMatic and Bigbear.ai each fell over 29% on
weaker-than-expected revenue. WideOpenWest spiked 48% after agreeing to a buyout.


Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.7%, Russell 2000 +1.5%, DJI +0.5%.


Asian stocks climbed as global trade tensions eased after President Trump extended the US-China tariff truce by 90 days, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up and Japan’s Nikkei 225
surging to a record high, closing 2.1% higher at 42,718.17. Japanese and Korean chipmakers rallied as Trump signaled he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down Blackwell AI chip to China, though gains were trimmed after China reportedly urged firms to avoid
Nvidia’s older H20 processors. Market sentiment was buoyed by optimism over easier trade terms and anticipated Fed rate cuts, though investors looked to upcoming US inflation data for further direction.Topix +1.4%, Nikkei 225 +2.1%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Hang Seng
+0.3%, Hang Seng China Ent. +0.3%, Taiex +0.1%, Kospi -0.5%, Kospi 200 -0.4%, ASX 200 +0.4%



European stocks erased earlier gains as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was weighed down by a 1.8% drop in tech shares, tracking losses in US software stocks after renewed AI disruption
concerns. Defense-related stocks gained 0.6% with investors monitoring President Trump’s upcoming meeting with Russia’s Putin over Ukraine, while energy and mining outperformed on sector strength. China-exposed luxury stocks like Hermes and Burberry gave up
initial advances after Trump extended US tariff relief on Chinese goods for 90 days, though earlier optimism had briefly lifted shares. Stoxx 600 -0.02%, DAX -0.46%, CAC 40 +0.15%, FTSE 100 flat,Tech -1.8%, Defense +0.6%.

 

FIXED INCOME: 
 


Treasuries rallied to session highs after July CPI data matched estimates, leaving the door open for a potential Fed rate cut in September. The curve bull-steepened as 2- and 5-year
yields dropped 4–5bp while long-end yields fell about 2bp, causing the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads to steepen by 1bp and 2bp, respectively. Fed-dated OIS contracts reflected a dovish shift, now pricing in roughly 22bp of easing for September—up from 20bp—and a
total of 60bp over the three remaining meetings this year, compared to 56bp previously, signaling heightened bets on looser monetary policy.

 

 

 

METALS: 


Gold prices edged higher, as investors awaited U.S. CPI data expected to shape the Fed’s rate-cut outlook. The metal had plunged Monday after President Trump ruled out tariffs on imported
bullion, narrowing a $40 futures-spot gap, though analysts warn the convergence may be temporary without an official statement. Gold -0.07%, Silver +0.15%.

 

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fell as traders weighed President Trump’s extension of the US-China trade truce—delaying tariffs for another 90 days—and the uncertain outlook of his upcoming summit with
Russia’s President Putin. Brent hovered near $66.70 a barrel and WTI near $64, both little changed amid thin volumes as traders were cautious ahead of possible geopolitical developments and awaited fresh supply-demand data from OPEC and the US Department of
Energy. Concerns over a potential supply glut have drawn attention to OPEC’s recent production hikes and US output forecasts, while oil’s recent 8% monthly slide reflects easing trade tensions and expectations for interest rate cuts. WTI -0.7%, Crude -0.5%. 


 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 


The US dollar index slipped after trading mixed against its G-10 peers ahead of the US CPI release. The pound strengthened, extending its winning streak versus the euro after UK jobs
data showed a jobless rate matching estimate at 4.7%, sending EURGBP to its lowest since July 31. The Australian dollar weakened after the Reserve Bank cut rates for the third time this year and projected a moderating inflation outlook, while USDJPY climbed
to its highest since August 1. US$ Index – 0.1%, EURUSD -0.10%, USDJPY +0.22%, GBPUSD +0.23%, USDCAD +0.16%, USDCHF -0.15%, AUDUSD -0.38%, EURCHF -0.24%, EURGBP -0.30%, EURJPY +0.12%, AUDJPY -0.15%

 

 

 

 

Bitcoin -0.4%, Ethereum +0.9%.  

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 



  • Upgrades
  • Downgrades
  • Initiations
    • Assurant (AIZ) Rated New
      Outperform at BMO; PT $238
    • Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs
      Reinstated Buy at Daiwa; PT $190
    • GSR III Acquisition (GSRT)
      Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $19
    • IsoEnergy (ISO CN) Rated
      New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$22
    • KE Holdings (2423 HK) ADRs
      Rated New Outperform at CCB Intl; PT $23.30
    • Maritime Resources (MAE
      CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital
    • Paramount Skydance (PSKY)
      Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $13
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated
      New Overweight at Stephens
    • Solvay (SOLB BB) ADRs Rated
      New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $3.10
    • Tesla (TSLA) Rated New
      Accumulate at Zhongtai Securities
    • Uranium Energy (UEC) Rated
      New Buy at Goldman; PT $13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

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