Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 13, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 1:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Global Oil Markets Face Record Supply Glut: IEA
  • BESSENT: COULD SEE NVIDIA ARRANGEMENT IN OTHER CASES OVER TIME
  • BESSENT: RATE CUTS COULD START WITH 50 BPS IN SEPTEMBER
  • US embeds trackers in AI chip shipments to catch diversions to China
  • European leaders and Zelenskiy to hold a call with Trump today
  • US tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July
  • Europe Finally Embraces Air Conditioning as Heat Waves Hit Hard
  • Mexico transferred 26 inmates with ties to organized crime to the US

 

Global stocks rose with the MSCI World Index hitting an all-time high as investors welcomed mild US inflation data and evidence of strength in major economies, with
expectations of a US rate hike fueling demand for riskier assets. Trump’s signing of an executive order pausing levies on Chinese imports for another 90 days also boosted optimism. China plans to boost domestic consumption by offering interest subsidies on
loans to households and businesses, aiming to reduce borrowing costs and spur spending. China’s major state-owned banks said they would actively implement the new subsidy policy. China’s new loans plunged to the lowest level since 2007. Putin heads into Friday’s
summit with Trump confident that Russia is in a dominant position on the battlefield, reinforcing his push to secure major territorial concessions.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures edge higher after the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed at new all-time highs as easing concerns about price pressures boosted bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in
September. Money markets have almost priced in a full 25 basis points Fed reduction next month after Tuesday’s in-line US inflation reading eased price concerns. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed ought to be open to a bigger, 50 basis-point
cut. He dismissed the possibility that Chinese investments in the US would be part of a trade pact. Tencent ADRs rose premarket after revenue beat estimates and the company said it is stepping up AI spending. CoreWeave shares slumped after it posted a more
than 20-fold jump in losses last quarter.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.3%.

In pre-market trading, CoreWeave shares fell 10% after it delivered a disappointing earnings outlook, reflecting margin pressures from a rapid AI datacenter expansion.
C3.ai Inc. (AI) falls 0.6% after it was downgraded to market perform from outperform at Oppenheimer. Capri Holdings shares (CPRI) jump 7% as JPMorgan raised the Michael Kors owner to overweight from neutral. Global-e Online shares (GLBE) are up 10% after the
software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. HanesBrands shares (HBI) are down 7% after Gildan Activewear agreed to buy the company in a deal with an implied equity value of about $2.2b, while Gildan’s
US shares (GIL) are up 0.2%. Intapp shares (INTA) are up 24% after the software services company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is viewed as strong. KinderCare shares (KLC) tumble 21% after the childhood education
company posted disappointing results for the second quarter. Lumentum shares (LITE) are up 4.5% after the maker of optical and photonic products reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, prompting an upgrade. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is up 1.8%
after Deutsche Bank upgraded the network security company to buy from hold. SimilarWeb (SMWB) jumps 19% after the web services company reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

European gauges are higher, with technology and defense stocks leading gains while the energy sector lags. RENK Group’s shares rise as much as 6% after the German defense
company reported its second quarter revenue beat estimates. Nordic Semiconductor rallied as much as 18% after the chipmaker gave stronger-than-expected sales guidance. Glanbia climbs as much as 13% after the food and nutrition company beat expectations in
the first half and lifted its guidance for the full year. Hill & Smith gains as much as 12% after the maker of infrastructure products reported a good set of results and a new £100m buyback. Beazley falls ~11% after the British specialist insurer reported
first-half results.  Sixt shares dipped as much as 6.4% after the German vehicle rental company reported second quarter results. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Technology +1.25%, Aero & Defense +1.2%, Retail +1%, Healthcare +0.9%. Energy
-0.9%, Travel & Leisure -0.4%.

Shares in Asia closed broadly higher, tracking gains on Wall Street after the latest US inflation data raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next
month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%, touching its highest since February 2021. Tencent was among the biggest boosts before its earnings report. Japan’s Nikkei 225 notches a new record close while benchmarks in Taiwan and Indonesia flirted with all-time
highs. The Hang Seng Tech Index led gains in the region, as Tencent Music shares jumped 16% after second-quarter earnings topped estimates. Meanwhile, Chinese shares extended their recent advance, with ample domestic liquidity cited as a tailwind for the market.
Chinese lithium battery separator makers rose after eight companies agreed to halt production expansion and adjust capacity following a meeting in Shenzhen. The Bank of Thailand cut its key rate by 25 bps to 1.5%, as expected. Hang Seng Tech +3.5%, Hang Seng
Index +2.6%, Thailand +1.5%, Nikkei 225 +1.3%, Singapore +1.2%, Kospi +1.1%, Taiwan +0.9%, CSI 300 +0.8%, Philippines +0.6%, Sensex +0.4%, Vietnam +0.2%. ASX 200 -0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US Treasuries climbed across the curve, with the yield on 10-year notes dropping three basis points to 4.255%. Gains for European bonds support Treasuries as swap
markets continue to price in additional easing by ECB and BOE, along with the Fed. US yields are richer by ~3.5bp across tenors with the curve flat on the day. Japan’s five-year bond auction drew the weakest demand since 2020 amid the prospect of tighter monetary
policy and liquidity concerns.

 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher as trade concerns have eased after the extension of the US-China tariff truce and geopolitical tensions have cooled ahead of a summit between President
Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Traders are weighing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path after a modest rise in the cost of US goods tempered concerns about tariff-driven price pressures. Spot gold +0.35%, Silver +1.8%, Copper futures -0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices ease after the IEA noted supply overtaking demand this year, while investors awaited Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin. Global oil markets are on
track for a record surplus next year as demand growth slows and supplies swell, the International Energy Agency said. World oil demand this year and next is growing at less than half the pace seen in 2023, as inventories reached a 46-month high in June. Oil
markets are drawing some support for the time being from strong summer demand for driving fuels, but the IEA’s data suggest they’re already tipping into oversupply. Global oil consumption will grow by just 680,000 barrels a day this year, the weakest since
2019, amid disappointing demand in China, India and Brazil, according to the IEA report. The UK, France and Germany told the UN they’re prepared to reimpose sanctions on Iran unless it resumes nuclear talks, the FT reported. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.3%, US Nat
Gas +0.2%, RBOB -0.05%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar extended its recent decline as traders waited for comments from several Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the central
bank’s policy amid expectations for a rate cut next month. The US inflation report is bolstering the case for traders betting that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, with some seeing an increased possibility of an outsized reduction. Sterling rose for a
second session after better-than-expected UK jobless data. US$ Index -0.4%, GBPUSD +0.5%, EURUSD +0.35%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.55%, USDCHF -0.4%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +1.5%.  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Altus Group (AIF CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$74
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $225
    • CACI (CACI) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $544
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30
    • CF Industries (CF) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
    • Corteva (CTVA) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $84
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Raised to Buy at SWS; PT $285
    • Lumentum (LITE) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $135
    • Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $54
    • Ouster (OUST) Raised to Buy at WestPark Capital
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $220
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $26
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Buy at Huatai Research; PT $210.50
    • TD Bank (TD CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$107
    • TriMas (TRS) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $45
  • Downgrades
    • BioAtla (BCAB) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $101
    • C3.ai (AI) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Cadre Holdings (CDRE) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $26
    • Compass Minerals (CMP) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
    • Fluence Energy (FLNC) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $5
    • Generation Bio (GBIO) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $7
    • Insmed (INSM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $126
    • KBR (KBR) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $55
    • KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $9
    • Lithium Argentina AG (LAR CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • On Holding (ONON) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $40
    • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT $1
    • Parsons (PSN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $81
    • Standard BioTools Inc (LAB) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • Traeger (COOK) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $1.50
  • Initiations
    • AIG (AIG) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $84
    • Akamai (AKAM) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $67
    • Allstate (ALL) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $202
    • Almonty Industries (AII CN) Rated New Buy at Cantor; PT C$9
    • Aon PLC (AON) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $440
    • Arch Capital (ACGL) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $98
    • Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $370
    • BitFuFu (FUFU) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $6
    • BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
    • Cameco (CCO CN) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
    • Cenovus (CVE CN) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research
    • Chubb (CB) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $290
    • Everest Group Ltd (EG) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $368
    • Ferragamo (SFER IM) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $2.30
    • Ferrari (RACE) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research
    • Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $125
    • Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $152
    • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $500
    • Lemonade (LMND) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $60
    • Lincoln Electric (LECO) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $259.90
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $256
    • Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Progressive (PGR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $240
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $238
    • Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $61
    • Skeena Resources (SKE CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$28
    • TerraVest Capital (TVK CN) Rated New Neutral at CIBC; PT C$175
    • Travelers (TRV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $308
    • Trupanion (TRUP) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $47
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $82
    • Willis Towers (WTW) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $355

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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