Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 14, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET PPI Final Demand, Initial Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s
Barkin speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%: JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.2%
  • Trump Issues Warning to Putin After Prep With Europe
  • PUTIN: NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS WITH US ARE POSSIBLE: IFX
  • BESSENT: CHINA BACKED SELVES INTO CORNER ON CHIPS
  • The S&P 500 is now trading at over 3.2x sales, its highest valuation in history
  • Fed’s Daly says large rate cut next month doesn’t seem warranted
  • US judge blocks Trump religious exemption to birth control coverage
  • Alcohol consumption among US adults falls to its lowest level since Gallup began tracking in 1939
  • Brewers win 12th straight game: 27-3 over last 30 games (getting ridiculous)

 

Global stocks edge lower as investors await US producer prices data and the anticipated Trump-Putin talks. Trump warned he would impose “very severe consequences”
if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire agreement later this week, following a call with European leaders. Trump assured leaders on the call he wouldn’t negotiate territories with Putin and would push the Russian leader to meet with Zelenskiy. UK Prime Minister
Keir Starmer will host Zelenskiy in London today. British exports to the US dropped to a three-year low in June, official data revealed, reflecting the impact of Trump’s initial import tariff surge. UK sales to the US fell about 20% lower than the monthly
average in 2024.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures inch lower in muted overnight trading as investors awaited fresh economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next month. Traders are now fully
pricing in a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with some betting on a 50 basis point cut. Fed President Mary Daly (non-voter) pushed back against the need for a 50-basis-point interest rate cut next month, saying “it would seem too urgent,”
a day after Treasury Secretary Bessent said an aggressive half-point cut was possible. Focus this morning will be on the Producer Price Index for the month of July for further evidence supporting expectations for a rate cut. Cisco Systems slipped after reporting
earnings that were largely in line with expectations but gave a cautious forecast for the year. Meanwhile, a Reuters report said Trump’s administration is likely weeks away from announcing the results of a probe into pharmaceutical imports and new sector-specific
tariffs. Healthcare companies were little changed ahead of the bell. Futures slide after the PPI data.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.02%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI flat.

In pre-market trading, Bullish (BLSH) rises 15% a day after the crypto exchange operator and CoinDesk owner raised $1.1 billion in an initial public offering. Bumble
(BMBL) falls 11% after holders offered shares. Coherent Corp. (COHR) sinks 20% after the fiscal 4Q report from the photonics company, which also said it would sell its Aerospace and Defense business to Advent for $400 million. Deere (DE) falls 5% after the
agricultural-equipment giant trimmed the high end of its full-year net income outlook DLocal (DLO) surges 26% after the payments company reported net income for the second quarter that beat estimates. NetEase ADRs (NTES) fall 6% after the company reported
2Q sales that missed estimates. Ibotta Inc. (IBTA) slumps 33% after the digital marketing software company provided a third-quarter forecast that trailed expectations. PagSeguro (PAGS) falls 6% after the company reported total payment volume in the second
quarter below what analysts expected. Tapestry Inc. (TPR) declines 6% after its annual outlook for a key profit metric missed analysts’ forecasts due in part to tariffs. TeraWulf (WULF) soars 17% after signing two 10-year high-performance computing colocation
deals with AI cloud platform operator Fluidstack.

European gauges are higher as investors digest a slew of earnings reports. Stoxx 600 touches a two-week high as strong earnings from insurers, including Admiral and
Aviva, helped offset a slump in Dutch payments group Adyen after it cut its annual revenue forecast. Euro zone industrial output dipped more than expected in June. Industrial output fell 1.3% on the month, driven by a big dip in Germany and weak consumer goods
production. The UK economy fared better than expected in the second quarter, with gross domestic product rising 0.3%, beating the 0.1% forecast.  Among individual movers, Autostore surged as much as 40% after delivering strong second quarter results that were
significantly ahead of analyst’ expectations. Talanx shares gained as much as 8.3% as the insurance company upped its guidance for the full year. Aviva rallied as much as 5% after the insurer delivered profits well ahead of expectations. Admiral Group rose
as much as 7.8% after the British insurer reported strong 1H profits. Embracer falls as much as 25% after the Swedish game company cut its full-year outlook. Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 12% after the German steel and engineering group cut its full-year
guidance. HelloFresh falls as much as 17% after the meal-kit firm lowered its earnings guidance and delivered soft Q2 results. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.6%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Aero & Defense +2%, Real Estate +1%, Insurance +0.9%, Banks +0.8%. Basic Resources
-1%, Energy -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, with Japanese stocks under pressure after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the BOJ was behind the curve on inflation and
likely to raise interest rates, triggering a yen surge. Bessent’s comments coincide with the Bank of Japan’s continued adherence to one of the lowest policy rates among major economies, despite inflation exceeding its 2% target. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
fell 0.5%, snapping a three-day advance. Shares in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong declined, while Indonesian stocks headed for a record. Tencent shares rose as much as 2.4% in Hong Kong after the Chinese internet giant beat estimates in all reporting segments,
with sales growing at the fastest pace in four years. HSBC strategists downgraded Korean stocks to underweight from neutral, saying the market “has become frothy” and valuations in certain sectors are “very high.”  Vietnam +1.8%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Indonesia +0.5%,
Sensex +0.1%, Kospi +0.05%. CSI 300 -0.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.4%, Singapore -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Philippines -0.5%, Taiwan -0.5%, Thailand -0.8%, Topix -1.1%, Nikkei -1.45%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold gains, sitting at weekly highs and outperforming European bonds, in anticipation of weekly jobless claims and July PPI data. US yields are 1bp-3bp
richer across tenors with the curve flatter, leaving 2s10s spread tighter by around 1.5bp and 5s30s flat; 10-year near 4.21% is 2.5bp lower. Traders are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the central bank in September, according to the
CME FedWatch tool, and expect cuts of a similar size in October and December.

 

METALS: 

Gold is steady as investors price in the potential for reduced “geopolitical risks” ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin. Bullion rose as much as 0.6% overnight
before paring gains to trade flat near $3,356 an ounce. Spot gold ~flat, Silver -0.5%, Copper futures -0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices edges higher as traders remained hopeful of a potential Ukraine peace deal, with the much-anticipated meeting between Trump and Putin looming. Trump and
Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday, in a bid to end war in Ukraine. Trump has threatened Russia with “severe consequences” if Putin rejects a ceasefire. Investors are weighing what impact the US-Russia summit on Ukraine might have on Russian crude
flows, with secondary sanctions looming over Moscow’s customers, while a rising supply outlook capped gains. Both WTI and Brent hit their lowest in two months on Wednesday after bearish supply guidance from the IEA.  WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas -1.4%,
RBOB +0.8%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed while the yen led Group-of-10 gains as investors weighed comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent called
for both a lower US cash rate and a higher Japanese one, saying the Bank of Japan is “behind the curve” in addressing inflation. The Norwegian krone nudged higher after the Norges Bank left interest rates on hold and reiterated its plan to extend easing later
this year. Sterling inched up from stronger-than-expected UK GDP data. The UK economy recorded the fastest growth of the Group-of-Seven nations during the first half of the year. Aussie$ reversed earlier gains made after Australian employment rose and the
jobless rate ticked lower, signaling the labor market remains tight and reinforcing the RBA’s cautious approach to policy easing. US$ Index is flat, GBPUSD ~flat, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.6%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.45%, USDCHF is flat, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK
+0.2%, USDNOK is flat.

 

 

Bitcoin %, Ethereum %. Bitcoin eases after hitting a record high of $124,514. Ethereum rose to near record levels as Wall Street grows increasingly bullish on the
crypto play. “We have stated multiple times we believe Ethereum is the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years,” Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee wrote in a note on Wednesday.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Albemarle (ALB) Raised to Buy at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $114.20
    • Allegion (ALLE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $163
    • Asbury Auto (ABG) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $277
    • AutoCanada (ACQ CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$40
    • Birchcliff Energy (BIR CN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$8
    • BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $42
    • Dlocal (DLO) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $15
    • Dow (DOW) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $25
    • FedEx (FDX) Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $275
    • Hanesbrands (HBI) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $6
    • Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $15
    • Kratos (KTOS) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $80
    • Magellan Aerospace (MAL CN) Raised to Hold at Paradigm Capital
    • Mid-America (MAA) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $150
    • Ultrapar (UGPA3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $4
    • uniQure (QURE) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $30
  • Downgrades
    • Acadia Health (ACHC) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $26
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $199
    • Coherent Corp (COHR) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Fortive (FTV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $54
    • Home Depot (HD) Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $415
    • Ibotta (IBTA) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $30
      • Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
      • Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $38
    • Illinois Tool (ITW) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
    • Li Auto (LI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
    • North American Construction (NOA CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
  • Initiations
    • Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $25.90
    • ArcelorMittal (MT NA) ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $33
    • Arkema (AKE FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $96.90
    • AZZ (AZZ) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $128
    • BASF (BAS GR) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $11.40
    • Bayer (BAYN GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $8.80
    • Brenntag (BNR GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $15.10
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Cal-Maine (CALM) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $110
    • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $10
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $61
    • Covestro (1COV GR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $36.20
    • Gogo (GOGO) Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) Rated New Outperform at Baptista Research; PT $50.50
    • IMCD (IMCD NA) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $62.30
    • JBS (JBS) Rated New Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $17
    • Lanxess (LXS GR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $5.80
    • Nucor (NUE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $145
    • Paycom Software (PAYC) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $230
    • Paylocity (PCTY) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $215
    • Procore Technologies (PCOR) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research
    • Regeneron (REGN) Reinstated Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $890
    • Reliance (RS) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $296
    • Rocket Cos. (RKT) Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16
    • Schrodinger (SDGR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $25
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $143
    • Ternium (TX) ADRs Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
    • Vestas (VWS DC) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $6.80
    • Workday (WDAY) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $265
    • Yara (YAR NO) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $14.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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