Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Export Price Index,
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Mfg Production, Capacity Utilization; 10:00ET Business Inventories, U. of Mich. Sentiment; 2:00ET TIC Flows; 3:00ET Trump-Putin
meeting begins

Highlights and News:  

• US JULY RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.6%
• TRUMP: TARIFFS ON CHIPS WILL BE LOW BEGINNING, THEN VERY HIGH
• Trump and Putin will hold a joint press conference after today’s meeting in Alaska
• China Opposes European Threats to Reinstate International Sanctions on Iran
• China’s factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low in July
• Berkshire Buys UnitedHealth Stock, Cuts Position in Apple
• 13Fs showed hedge funds added exposure to tech giants including Microsoft and Netflix, while Pershing’s stake in Amazon totaled nearly $1.3 billion
  
• Robots race, play football, crash and collapse at China’s ‘robot Olympics’

Global stocks inch higher, trading near record highs as investors awaited key talks over Ukraine between Trump and Putin in Alaska. The latest data on US wholesale
prices slightly dialed back expectations for an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is among key events to watch next week. Japan’s economy expanded more rapidly than anticipated in Q2, with export volumes
remaining resilient despite new US tariffs, creating favorable conditions for the central bank to consider resuming interest rate hikes this year. China’s economy weakened broadly in July, with lackluster factory activity, investment, and retail sales, indicating
that Beijing’s efforts to curb harmful price wars and the effects of Trump’s tariffs are starting to hinder economic activity. Switzerland’s economy unexpectedly grew in the second quarter, maintaining some momentum before the country was hit with one of the
highest US tariff rates.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are mostly higher as investors set their sights on US retail sales figures, after an unexpected spike in producer price data on Thursday renewed inflation concerns and
pared market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Economists expect government data to show a solid increase in July retail sales, a day after US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, boosted by a surge in the costs of services.
Investors will also monitor economic data on import prices and consumer sentiment. Intel rose more than 3% in premarket trading on a report that the US government may buy a stake in the struggling chipmaker. Chip equipment makers are lower ahead of the bell
as Applied Materials shares fall more than 14% after a weak sales and profit forecast. UnitedHealth surged after Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake in the health insurer. The Kremlin is likely to use the Alaska summit to try to deflect attention away from
peace negotiations with Ukraine and towards the Russia-US relationship in order to court the Trump administration into offering Moscow sorely needed economic relief. Rubio, Lutnick, Bessent, and Ratcliffe are traveling with Trump to the Putin summit.   

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.5%

In pre-market trading, Applied Materials shares (AMAT) tumble 13% after the producer of chipmaking gear gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. BitFuFu Inc. shares
(FUFU) surge 16% after the Bitcoin miner reported second-quarter adjusted Ebitda that beat the average estimate. Gambling.com shares (GAMB) are down 15% after the performance marketing and sports-betting media company cut its adjusted Ebitda outlook for the
full year, prompting a downgrade. UnitedHealth Group (UNH +10%), as well as homebuilders Lennar (LEN +3.3%) and DR Horton (DHI +2.9%) rally after the latest 13F filing showed Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought shares in the companies during the second
quarter. Precigen shares (PGEN) surge 56% before the bell after the biotech firm was granted full FDA approval for Papzimeos. Roblox shares (RBLX) are down 5.8% following news that Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill had filed suit against the video-game
company. Sandisk shares (SNDK) fall 8.3% after the computer hardware and storage company issued forecasts on EPS and gross margin which analysts dubbed conservative. TMC The Metals Co. shares (TMC) fell 8.7% after the company reported a second-quarter operating
loss of $22 million. Target shares are down 2.1% after Bank of America downgraded the retailer to underperform from neutral.

European gauges are holding gains, with the Stoxx 600 vying for a fourth day of gains ahead of a meeting between Trump and Putin. Mining, chemical and auto shares lead,
while aero & defense underperforms. European metals and mining stocks lead gains in the broader benchmark as a slew of negative data from China increases speculation that Beijing will adopt further supportive measures. Cable maker NKT is the biggest advancer
on the index after strong results and upgraded guidance, while jewelry maker Pandora is the biggest decliner after disappointing earnings. Autostore rises as much as 7.4% following an upgrade to buy at Pareto. Technology underperforms as a weak report by America’s
Applied Materials weighed on chip equipment stocks. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index hit an all-time record high before surrendering gains. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC %, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Basic Resources +1.7%, Chemicals +0.8%, Autos +0.6%. Aero & Defense
-1.3%, Personal Goods -0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher as stronger-than-expected economic growth in Japan drove the country’s stocks to another record while Hong Kong’s market slipped after
China’s weak July economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, helped by Japanese financial stocks that rose on renewed expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes. Shares in Hong Kong were a notable drag on the region after data showed China’s economy
slowed in July with factory activity and retail sales disappointing. China’s factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low in July, while retail sales slowed sharply, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus. Two of China’s corporate
heavyweights JD.com and Geely Automobile Holdings revealed the scope of the earnings impact they’re having from brutal price competition, and investors are hitting the sell button. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.  Philippines +0.4%, Taiwan
+0.4%, CSI 300 +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Topix +1.6%, CSI 1000 +2%, . Hang Seng Index -1%, Vietnam -0.6%, Singapore -0.6%, Indonesia -0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries wavered amid caution before the summit and retail sales data, with 10-year yields +1bp at 4.29%. US long-end yields are about 1bp cheaper with shorter
maturities little changed, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s curves slightly. US session includes July retail sales data and meeting of US President Trump and Russia’s Putin in Alaska. Treasury auctions resume next week with $16 billion 20-year new issue Aug. 20
and $8 billion 30-year TIPS reopening Aug. 21.

METALS: 

Gold inches up, buoyed by a weaker dollar but were poised for a weekly decline after hotter-than-expected US producer price data dampened prospects for a super-sized
September rate cut by the Federal Reserve.  Spot gold +0.1%, Silver -0.5%, Copper futures -0.1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil drifted lower as investors awaited a face-to-face summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska. Putin stepped up his charm offensive, praising Trump’s efforts to
negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Expectations for a record glut in 2026 are weighing on the market and potentially give Trump some room to pressure Putin. There is unlikely to be any news from the talks, which starts at 3:00ET. That means potential
price reactions won’t come until the market reopens on Monday morning in Asia. Chinese refiners are ramping up purchases of Russian crude for October and November as Indian demand slows, according to Kpler. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.4%, US Nat Gas +2.8%, RBOB -0.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US$ weakened while the yen leads G-10 peers after surprising strong Japanese growth data which showed export volumes held up well against
new US tariffs. Japanese GDP data showed the economy expanding by an annualized 1.0% in the April-June quarter, beating analyst estimates. If history is any indication, the dollar could wane from here, Bank of America wrote in a Thursday note. “Fed rate cuts
amid rising YoY inflation suppresses real policy rate for the U.S. and leads to a weaker USD, in-line with the 2007 historical analog.” The Chinese yuan pulled back from a two-week high as weaker-than-expected economic readings weighed on sentiment. US$ Index
-0.4%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK -0.15%, USDNOK -0.4%.

Bitcoin +1%, Ethereum +2.25%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Chemtrade Logistics (CHE-U CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• LM Funding America (LMFA) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $5
• MiNK (INKT) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright
• Montage Gold (MAU CN) Raised to Buy at Cormark Securities; PT C$6.75
• PAR Technology (PAR) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $65
• Precigen (PGEN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Williams Cos (WMB) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT $64
• Downgrades
• Applied Industrial Tech (AIT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $180
• Cut to Hold at Summit Insights
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Cut to Hold at Gordon Haskett; PT $105
• Cisco (CSCO) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $69
• Gambling.com (GAMB) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $11
• Globant (GLOB) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $78
• Minto Apartment (MI-U CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$14.50
• Planet 13 (PLTH CN) Cut to Underperform at ATB Capital
• Sabre (SABR) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $2.40
• Schrodinger (SDGR) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $20
• Spire (SR) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $76
• Initiations
• Accor (AC FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $12
• Applied Opto (AAOI) Rated New Buy at First Shanghai; PT $45
• Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) US Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $21
• Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $9
• Evolv Technologies (EVLV) Reinstated Buy at TD Cowen; PT $10
• Exodus Movement (EXOD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $45
• ICU Medical (ICUI) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $145
• InterContinental Hotels (IHG LN) IHG US Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $105
• Kraken Sonar (PNG CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$5
• MYR Group (MYRG) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $202
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $860
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $67
• Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$2

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke