Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on August 19, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:00ET Trump on Fox & Friends; 8:30ET Housing Starts, Building Permits; 10:00ET Fed’s Bowman
speaks; 2:10ET Fed’s Bowman speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Widens Metal Tariffs to Include Over 400 Consumer Items
  • US, ALLIES TO START IMMEDIATELY ON UKRAINE SECURITY PLAN
  • TRUMP ON PUTIN-ZELENSKIY MEETING: WE’LL LET THEM MEET FIRST
  • SoftBank Buys $2 Billion In Intel Stock Days After Trump Admin Considers 10% Stake
  • BESSENT: PLAN TO UP TARIFFS ON INDIA OVER RUSSIAN OIL BUYING
  • DEEPSEEK RELEASES UPGRADED VERSION OF ONLINE AI MODEL
  • Americans get 55% of their calories from ultra-processed foods, the CDC said

 

Global stocks held steady as investors monitored earnings from major US retailers and diplomatic progress in the Ukraine conflict as Trump pushes for a summit between
Ukraine and Russia. US and European officials started work on bolstering Ukraine’s military, part of a package of security guarantees that will open a path to a landmark meeting between presidents Putin and Zelenskiy. The aim is to avoid Russia demanding restrictions
on the size of Kyiv’s military as part of a future agreement to end the war. Trump stunned the logistics industry on Friday by widening his steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 consumer items that contain the metals, such as motorcycles and
tableware. Customs brokers and importers in the US were given little notice to account for the change, which went into effect Monday. The new list includes auto parts, chemicals, plastics and furniture components.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures wavered while investors parse new earnings from major retailers and await policy hints from the Federal Reserve ahead of its annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Home Depot shares fell more than 2% after the home improvement giant reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter earnings, while maintaining its full-year outlook. Japanese conglomerate. Intel jumped 6% after the chipmaker got a $2 billion capital injection
from Japan’s SoftBank Group. Shares of Palo Alto Networks jumped more than 5% in extended trading after the chipmaker’s quarterly results topped estimates. Nvidia is developing an AI chip specifically for China which will be more powerful than the H20 model,
Reuters reported. Apple is expanding iPhone production in India at five factories as it seeks to lessen its reliance on China for US-bound models. S&P Global Ratings said revenues from Trump’s tariffs will help soften the blow to the US’s fiscal health from
the president’s tax cuts, enabling it to maintain its current credit grade of AA+. Tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record of $28B in July.      

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, Fabrinet (FN) falls 8% after the optical device maker said it expects to see a sequential dip in datacom segment revenue in its fiscal 1Q. Intel
(INTC) is up 5% after SoftBank Group agreed to buy $2 billion of the chipmaker’s stock. Iovance (IOVA) jumps 15% after the biotech said Health Canada approved Amtagvi to treat certain patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma. Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
rises 2% after agreeing to acquire all outstanding shares of Tegna (TGNA +3%) for $22 per share. Opera Limited (OPRA) rise 3% after the software firm boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) gains 6% after the security software
company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a strong outlook. Peabody Energy (BTU) rises 7% after deciding to walk away from a $3.8 billion deal to buy Anglo American Plc’s steelmaking coal business. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) slumps
35% after the company announced top-line results from the Phase 2 clinical trial of its oral obesity drug. Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM) today announced that it has received an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from Sixth Street Partners to acquire all of
the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock for cash consideration of $24.10 per share.

European gauges are higher as signs of progress toward a peace settlement in Ukraine lifted sentiment.  Sweden’s Ambea and Sweco are among the biggest outperformers,
on earnings and a broker upgrade. Huber+Suhner shares rise as much as 9.8% to a record after the Swiss electrical components firm reported. Odfjell Drilling gains as much as 11% and reaches a new all-time high after reporting second-quarter results. Applied
Nutrition shares rise as much as 12% after the health supplements company said it anticipates revenue to be ahead of market expectations. European defense shares moved lower after Trump promised Ukraine “security guarantees” during talks in Washington on Monday.
German tank parts manufacturer Renk fell 7%; Italy’s Leonardo -8%; Germany’s Hensoldt -7%; and Sweden’s Saab -6.6%, were among the worst performers in the sector. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Luxury +2.3%, Basic Resources +2.2%, Retail
+1.8%. Aero & Defense -3%, Industrial Goods -0.3%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, with South Korea and Australia leading losses, as markets take a breather after an extended rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell
0.2%, with Sydney-listed biotech CSL the biggest drag as it posted the worst decline on record after disappointing earnings. Vietnam outperformed in the region after announcing around 250 projects, with investments totaling about $48 billion, are being pursued
in the country as the government seeks to show it is boosting economic growth. Indian shares also moved higher amid thawing relations with China and expectations of a boost in consumption from planned tax cuts. Chinese EV stocks declined after Tesla launched
a six-seat Model Y sport utility vehicle, pricing it in the same range as local rivals. Kospi -0.8%, ASX 200 -0.7%, Thailand -0.5%, Taiwan -0.5%, Indonesia -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Hang Seng Index -0.2%, Philippines -0.2%, Topix -0.1%. Vietnam +1.1%, Sensex +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries eked out small gains after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the US, with the 10-year rate falling one basis point to 4.32%. Curve
spreads, though slightly steeper, are within 1bp of Monday’s close. The fed funds futures market is indicating an 83% chance for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Treasury auctions resume
Wednesday with $16 billion 20-year new issue; an $8 billion 30-year TIPS reopening is slated for Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold edged higher as traders weighed US-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine and counted down to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering, which may yield hints on
possible rate cuts. All eyes are in the Federal Reserve’s minutes for the July meeting due on Wednesday, and the central bank’s Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver a speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. Spot bullion rose slightly to around $3,340
an ounce, after ending almost flat on Monday. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.1%, Copper futures -0.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices slid as traders evaluated promising diplomatic signals toward ending hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that could lead to the lifting of sanctions
on Russian crude, raising supply.  Trump said arrangements were being made for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy, which could lead to a trilateral summit involving all three leaders. “The Ukrainian leader appears to have pushed for more clarity around
US security guarantees and reportedly is willing to offer a $100 billion weapons deal in return for such guarantees,” ING analysts said. “A big sticking point relates to territory,” the analysts said, adding: “Putin wants Ukraine to concede Donetsk and Luhansk
in their entirety – even parts of those regions not currently under Russian occupation.”  WTI -1.2%, Brent -1.1%, US Nat Gas -1.7%, RBOB -0.7%.   

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus G-10 peers in subdued trading as focus shifts to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The euro crept up against
the dollar after Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said security guarantees for his nation will likely be worked out within 10 days. Volatility slump extends, weighed down by seasonal summer dynamics and a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
The loonie edges lower ahead of Canada CPI figures. Australia’s dollar was unmoved after data showed consumer confidence in the nation jumped to its highest since Feb. 2022. US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD -0.02%, NZDUSD
is flat, USDCHF -0.25%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK +0.02%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.8%, Ethereum -0.8%. 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $9.50
    • Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $20
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $476
    • Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $120
    • Gilead (GILD) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $128
    • Global Net Lease (GNL) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $9
    • Live Oak Banc (LOB) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $43
    • Nubank (NU) Raised to Buy at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $18
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $215
    • Prologis (PLD) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $118
    • Target Hospitality (TH) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $11
  • Downgrades
    • Anglogold (AU) Cut to Underweight at Nedbank CIB; PT $53.82
    • Couche-Tard (ATD CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$75
    • EPR Properties (EPR) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Femsa (FEMSAUBD MM) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $97
    • Prairie Operating (PROP) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $3
    • Rein Therapeutics Inc (RNTX) Cut to Hold at Brookline Capital
  • Initiations
    • Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) US Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $11
    • Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • CG Oncology (CGON) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $55
    • Day One Biopharma (DAWN) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $25
    • First Financial (FFBC) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group
    • Go Residential REIT (GO/U CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $15
    • Hugo Boss (BOSS GR) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $7.80
    • Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $42
    • LoanDepot (LDI) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Ondas (ONDS) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $5
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $47
    • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Rocket Cos. (RKT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $25
    • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $21
    • Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $11
    • Thermo Fisher (TMO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • UroGen Pharma (URGN) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $36
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Sell at GLJ Research; PT $112

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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