Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Personal Consumption, GDP, Core PCE Index QoQ, Jobless Claims; 10:00ET Pending Home
Sales; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity; 1:00ET 7-Year Auction; 6:00ET Fed’s Waller on monetary policy

Highlights and News:  

• Nvidia: analysts look past tepid forecast to lift price targets
• Japan’s top trade negotiator cancels Washington trip meant for tariffs deal statement
• NATO’S RUTTE: IF NECESSARY, IN RUSSIA’S PERSPECTIVE, THEY CAN EVEN DO ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS
• Russia launched a huge aerial attack on Kyiv, hits building housing EU delegation in Ukraine  
• AI chip provider Cambricon briefly replaced Kweichow Moutai as China’s most expensive onshore stock on Wed (Moutai is a liquor company… seems weird)
  

Global stocks nudge higher, brushing off a tech sector dip after Nvidia’s results missed some analyst forecasts. Nvidia’s outlook was slightly above consensus analyst
expectations, but also disappointed investors accustomed to blowout results. The MSCI World Equity Index was up 0.1% while Nvidia’s shares were down ~2% in overnight trading as uncertainty over its China businesses clouded a better-than-expected revenue forecast
for the next quarter. Mexico plans to increase tariffs on China as part of its 2026 budget proposal, satisfying a demand of President Trump. Japan’s top trade negotiator has abruptly canceled a trip to Washington aimed at issuing a joint statement on a tariffs
deal. Russia launched a huge aerial attack on Kyiv, striking the building housing the European Union’s delegation in what Ukraine alleged was a deliberate attack. Denmark summoned the top US diplomat in the country over reports that Washington was waging a
covert campaign to drive a wedge between the European nation and Greenland.

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are mixed as investors shook off an early drag from Nvidia’s sales outlook missing lofty expectations, as traders shifted their focus to upcoming economic data that
will shape the outlook for interest rates. Nvidia’s 56% quarterly sales gain was its smallest in more than two years. Nvidia’s robust quarterly revenue projections, $60 billion stock repurchase program, and CEO Jensen Huang’s optimistic remarks reassured investors
concerned about a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure demand, especially as S&P 500 valuations have surged beyond long-term averages. Wall Street analysts rushed to upgrade Nvidia price targets while an additional buyback adds to a historic pace by US
firms.  Meanwhile, data analytics company Snowflake gained over 14% after raising its forecast for fiscal 2026 product revenue due to AI demand. Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike dropped 3% after forecasting weak third-quarter revenue.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) falls 1.8% after the AI-focused chipmaker gave a revenue forecast that was seen as underwhelming. Cooper (COO) falls 14% after
the lens maker reduced its revenue outlook. CrowdStrike (CRWD) is down 3.4% after the software company gave an outlook for third-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected. Dollar General (DG) rises 6% after reporting stronger-than-expected sales and raised
its forecast. Five Below (FIVE) climbs 5% after raising its profit outlook. Li Auto ADRs (LI) drops 4% after the Chinese EV maker forecast revenue for the third quarter that missed estimates. Nutanix (NTNX) falls 7% after the cloud software company gave an
outlook that is seen as underwhelming. Phibro Animal Health Corp. (PAHC) rises 15% after forecasting year net sales that beat the average analyst estimate. Pure Storage (PSTG) gains 14% after the cloud-storage provider topped estimates for fiscal second-quarter
results and raised its 2026 full-year forecast. Snowflake (SNOW) is up 14% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Urban Outfitters (URBN) is down 5% after the apparel retailer reported
second-quarter results. Veeva Systems (VEEV) falls 3.6% after the software company reported its second-quarter results and gave an outlook.

European gauges erased early gains as investors assessed a busy slate of earnings and the latest political developments in France. The Stoxx 600 is slightly lower,
with real estate and telecom leading losses while luxury stocks and auto sector outperform. European automotive sector rallied as much as 2% after data showed a jump in new car registrations. Among individual names, LVMH led a rally in the luxury sector amid
optimism over demand. BioArctic shares rise as much as 10% after reporting results. Pernod Ricard climbed as much as 8.5% before paring gain made after the spirits maker delivered full-year EPS above expectations. Intellego Technologies gains as much as 23%
after the Swedish UV monitoring technology firm reported an earnings beat. Drax shares fall as much as 12% after the UK power producer said it’s facing a probe by the Financial Conduct Authority. SoftwareOne falls as much as 9% after the IT services provider
reported first-half results. Stoxx 600 -0.15%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Luxury +1.6%, Autos +1.3%, Basic Resources +1.2%. Telecom -1.3%, Real Estate -1.3%, Utilities -0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mixed again as a rally in mainland Chinese stocks was offset by losses in India and Taiwan. As China’s onshore rally extends, there are signs emerging
that a rotation from Hong Kong to mainland stocks may be underway. Chinese chip shares climbed following a report that firms aim to triple the output of AI processors next year.  Gains in Chinese equities came as Hong Kong-listed shares of the nation’s top
e-commerce firms like Meituan and Alibaba slumped.  Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1% as Meituan shares slid more than 10% following an ugly profit warning. Indian stocks fell as trading resumed after a holiday. Philippines led losses in the region after its
central bank said it is nearing the end of its monetary easing cycle. CSI 300 +1.8%, Nikkei 225 +0.7%, Vietnam +0.5%, New Zealand +0.3%, Kospi +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.2%, Indonesia +0.2%. Hang Seng Index -0.8%, Sensex -0.9%, Taiwan -1.2%, Philippines -1.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed with the yield curve flatter, pivoting around a little-changed 7-year sector and unwinding a small portion of this week’s sharp steepening move.
The Treasury curve flattens as longer dated maturities outperform, pushing US 30-year yields down 1 bps to 4.91% with 10-year yield broadly steady around 4.24%. Treasury three-auction cycles conclude at 1pm with $44 billion 7-year note sale, following 0.7bp
tail for Wednesday’s 5-year note sale, which also included largest direct bid since 2004.

METALS: 

Gold firms to a two-week high as investors awaited a US inflation report that’ll shed light on the path for interest rates. Bullion trades just above $3,400 an ounce,
with traders looking ahead to Friday’s US personal consumption report. Gold has been rangebound since hitting a record above $3,500 an ounce in April, with the market looking for fresh catalysts. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver +1.3%, Copper futures +0.4%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fluctuated, staying within a recent tight range as traders keep an eye on a potential oversupply and US pressure on India to stop purchasing Russian oil.
Bank of America says the oil market can absorb the looming oversupply by filling up tanks that are sitting empty. Citigroup expects oil prices to fall in the fourth quarter as the “oversupply should start to exert greater impact.” Meanwhile, Ukraine ramped
up drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting two more refineries.  WTI -0.1%, Brent -0.15%, US Nat Gas -1.0%, RBOB -0.2%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is lower for a third straight day, while the yen is near the top of the G-10 leaderboard after a Bank of Japan policymaker reaffirmed
the BOJ’s preference to raise interest rates.  Investors await US second-quarter gross domestic product data and jobless claims, as well as a speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller today. The euro rose as Francois Bayrou said he will negotiate directly
with lawmakers next week and warned against new elections as he battles to stop France’s parliament from forcing him to resign. US$ Index -0.3%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.35%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -0.5%,
USDNOK -0.25%.

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum -0.1%  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Five Below (FIVE) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $170
• Green Plains (GPRE) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $14
• International Paper (IP) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $57
• Kohl’s (KSS) Raised to Accumulate at Gordon Haskett
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $205.67
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Raised to Add at China Galaxy; PT $149
• Rambus (RMBS) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $91
• Silgan (SLGN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $57
• Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$285
• Venture Global (VG) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $17
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Raised to Buy at UBS
• Downgrades
• Aspen Insurance (AHL) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Bill Holdings (BILL) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $50
• Cooper Cos (COO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $72
• Initiations
• Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $17
• Acuren (TIC) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $16
• Biomea Fusion (BMEA) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $5
• Flutter (FLUT) Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT $339.65
• Fractyl Health (GUTS) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $3.60
• MP Materials (MP) Rated New Hold at Baptista Research; PT $76.20
• Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Northpointe Bancshares (NPB) Rated New Neutral at Janney Montgomery
• Oddity Tech (ODD) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $72
• Omai Gold Mines (OMG CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$1.40
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $129

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke