Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 2, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, ISM
Employment, Construction Spending; 2:00ET Trump to make announcement

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Weighs Declaring National Housing Emergency: Bessent
  • China Signals Willingness To Broaden Trade And Investment Relations With Iran
  • PUTIN: UNACCEPTABLE FOR RUSSIA TO HAVE UKRAINE JOIN NATO
  • Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial starts today

 

A selloff in global government bonds spooked investors and prompted a broader risk-off move, hitting equities and lifting the dollar. The Trump administration is
still talking with trading partners, even after the US appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal. Trump criticized the tariff and trade relationship between the US and India on Monday, saying it has been heavily one-sided for decades. Trump said
India offered to cut tariffs on US goods to zero, adding that “it’s getting late” and India should have made the offer “years ago”. India’s commerce minister said that both sides continue to engage to reach a trade agreement. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister
Shigeru Ishiba’s key power broker said he’ll quit if Ishiba approves, weakening Ishiba’s standing within his party and possibly starting a string of resignations. France’s far-right National Rally is ready for fresh elections as the current government is likely
to collapse. Euro-area inflation accelerated beyond the European Central Bank’s target, with consumer prices rising 2.1% from a year ago in August.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures are lower, as investors await employment data later in the week that is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary easing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
said he is confident the Supreme Court will back President Trump’s use of a 1977 emergency law to impose broad tariffs, but noted the administration has a backup plan if it doesn’t. Gold miners gained in premarket trading after bullion prices hit a record
high. In corporate news, Kraft Heinz said it will split into two separate, publicly listed companies to streamline operations. US stocks will continue rallying after four months of gains as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts coincide with robust corporate
earnings, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, recommending to buy any dips.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Russell 2000 -1.4%, DJI -0.7%

In pre-market trading, Cytokinetics (CYTK) climbs 29% after the heart-drug developer gave data from a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a heart disease
that impressed Wall Street. Constellation Brands (STZ) falls 8% after cutting its fiscal 2026 profit outlook. Frontier Group (ULCC) jumps 12% after Deutsche Bank raised the recommendation on low-cost carrier to buy. Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) rises 7% after
entering into an exclusive license agreement with Servier for regulatory and commercial rights to darovasertib outside the US. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) rises 23% after the company announced that olezarsen reduced triglycerides and acute pancreatitis events
in Phase 3 studies for people with severe hypertriglyceridemia. PepsiCo (PEP) rises 4% after the WSJ reported that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a roughly $4 billion stake in in the company and plans to push the beverage giant to
make changes. Telus Digital (TIXT) gains 14% after Telus Corp. agreed to acquire all remaining shares of the company that it doesn’t already own. United Therapeutics (UTHR) shares rise 49% after saying its Teton-2 study evaluating the use of nebulized Tyvaso
inhalation solution for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis met its primary efficacy endpoint.

European gauges are broadly lower as a spike in bond yields dented risk appetite. Hawkish comments by ECB rate-setter Isabel Schnabel and the euro area’s latest inflation
reading indicated that the central bank won’t cut rates at its next policy meeting. The Stoxx 600 is near the lows on the day, down over 1% while the CAC 40 Index outperforms, boosted by gains in LVMH and Kering SA after HSBC upgraded the luxury heavyweights
to buy over the prospect of a Chinese consumer comeback. Nestle recovers from an initial slide of more than 3.5% after the world’s largest food company dismissed its chief executive officer. SMA Solar shares fall as much as 27% after the German solar-energy
equipment maker issued a profit warning. Ithaca Energy plunged as much as 17% after investors offloaded shares in the oil and gas company at a discount to Monday’s close. Grenergy Renovables shares rise as much as 7.8% after the Spanish renewable energy company
agreed to sell phase 4 of the Oasis de Atacama project. Stoxx 600 -1.2%, DAX -1.7%, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.6%. Travel & Leisure -3%, Real Estate -3%, Retail -2.6%. Luxury +0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, weighed by Chinese tech firms amid profit-taking after a recent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% in a choppy session.
Indonesia’s stock benchmark rebounded after the nation’s finance minister promised a step-up in the government’s policies. South Korean defense-related companies rose after Seoul and Washington agreed on a gradual increase of Korea’s defense cost that will
reach 3.5% of its GDP. South Korea’s inflation slowed to its weakest pace this year, giving the central bank room to resume monetary easing. Chinese manufacturing equipment stocks rose after the government released new plans to enhance industrial-machine standardization
and upgrade the sector through improved standards. Hang Seng Tech -1.2%, CSI 300 -0.7%, Hang Seng Index -0.5%, ASX 200 -0.3%, Sensex -0.25%, Taiwan -0.2%, Philippines -0.2%. Thailand +0.3%, Singapore +0.5%, Topix +0.6%, Indonesia +0.8%, Kospi +0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are under pressure with the yield curve steeper amid similar price action in gilts and other core European bonds, and as an expected heavy corporate new-issue
slate has begun to build. About $55 billion is anticipated this week as US markets reopen after Monday’s holiday. The yield on 30-year Treasuries climbed 6.5 basis points to 4.99%, while Britain’s 10-year debt sale is set to raise a record £14 billion, putting
focus on the need to fund a widening budget gap. 10-year yield +7bps ~4.3%; 2s10s curve +bps.

 

METALS: 

Gold is slightly higher after hitting a new all-time high as rate-cut bets face a key test in Friday’s jobs report for August. The jobs report is likely to add to
signs of an increasingly subdued labor market — supporting the case for rate cuts. Markets are now waiting for a landmark ruling on whether Trump has legitimate grounds to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank. If deemed legal, the move would
allow the president to replace her with a dovish-leaning official. Separately, a federal appeals court said late Friday that Trump’s global tariffs were illegally imposed under an emergency law, increasing uncertainty for American importers while potentially
delaying the economic dividends promised by the administration. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver -0.8%, Copper futures -0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil climbed to its highest level in almost a month as Ukraine war escalations raised questions over the resilience of Russian supplies. Reuters calculations point
to Ukrainian drone attacks shutting down facilities accounting for at least 17% of Russia’s oil processing capacity. Russian oil exports are under scrutiny as the US seeks to pressure Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine by targeting India, a major buyer of
Russian crude. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the US is considering sanctions on Russia this week. Putin may have secured a diplomatic win as Russia’s Gazprom signed a deal to build the long-awaited Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China
via Mongolia. The gas will be sold at below-European prices, CEO Alexey Miller said. The US is preparing new measures against Banco do Brasil and Brazil’s diesel imports from Russia, CNN Brasil reported. WTI +2.8%, Brent +1.7%, US Nat Gas -2.9%, RBOB +3.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened the most in a month as investors reached for safe havens amid a broad pullback in global stock and bond markets. The
yen weakens 1% after a report that ruling Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Moriyama plans to step down. Meanwhile, comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino offered little in the way of hawkish signals. Sterling is heading for biggest drop
since April, while the yield on long-dated UK bonds rose to the highest since 1998.  US$ Index +0.6%, GBPUSD -0.85%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY +1%, AUDUSD -0.6%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF +0.6%, USDCAD %, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK -0.2%, USDCAD +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.6%, Ethereum +1%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • 8×8 (EGHT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $1.90
    • Acuity (AYI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $380
    • Affiliated Managers (AMG) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Ally Financial (ALLY) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
    • Ameresco (AMRC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $35
    • American Axle (AXL) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $8
    • Ametek (AME) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $180
    • BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$100
      • Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$108
    • Chemed (CHE) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $550
    • Frontier Airlines (ULCC) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $8
    • Hexcel (HXL) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $80
    • Hubbell (HUBB) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $490
    • NIO Inc. (NIO) ADRs Raised to Buy at Huatai Research; PT $7.56
    • Performance Food (PFGC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $114
    • PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $60
    • Questor Technology (QST CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at ATB Capital
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
    • Viavi (VIAV) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $11
    • Zscaler (ZS) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $320
  • Downgrades
    • Aspen Insurance (AHL) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $37.50
    • Block (XYZ) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $86
    • Borr Drilling (BORR) Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT $2.40
    • Elf Beauty (ELF) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $128
    • Fortinet (FTNT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $67
    • Fortive (FTV) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $50
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $72
    • Noble Corp. (NE) Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT $30
      • Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $31
    • Seadrill (SDRL) Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT $33
    • Simon Property (SPG) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $179
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Cut to Hold at GF Securities; PT $42
    • Valaris (VAL) Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT $45.50
      • Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $54
  • Initiations
    • 5e Advanced Materials (FEAM) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $7.50
    • Adecco (ADEN SW) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $18.10
    • Brookfield Corp (BN CN) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT C$107.24
    • Bureau Veritas (BVI FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
    • Eaton Corp (ETN) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $388
    • Enanta (ENTA) Rated New Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $24
    • Energy Transfer (ET) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $45
      • Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $65
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $55
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $54
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $60
    • HeartFlow (HTFL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $35
      • Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $35
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $38
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $36
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $35
    • Intertek (ITRK LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $79.50
    • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $30
    • Mobilicom (MOB AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at Litchfield Hills; PT $10
    • NextNRG (NXXT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $5
    • Pelthos Therapeutics (PTHS) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $50
    • Porch Group (PRCH) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $21
    • QXO (QXO) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $35
    • Ralliant (RAL) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $55
    • Randstad (RAND NA) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $24.50
    • Rentokil (RTO LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $27.62
    • Roivant Sciences (ROIV) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $16
    • SGS (SGSN SW) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $11
    • Siemens (SIE GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $158.50
    • So-Young (SY) ADRs Rated New Add at Sealand Securities
    • Soundhound (SOUN) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $14.90
    • Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $90
    • Vistagen Therapeutics Inc (VTGN) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Whitefiber (WYFI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $34
      • Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $26
      • Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $28
      • Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $34

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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