Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 3, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:
MBA Mortgage Applications -1.2%; 9:00ET FED Musalem to Speak; 10:00ET JOLTS Job Openings, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders;

Highlights and News:  

  • US holiday spending set for steepest drop since pandemic, PwC survey shows
  • Alphabet Inc.’s Google avoids forced sale of its Chrome business, will be required to share online search data with rivals
  • Russia’s Gazprom PJSC announces agreement with China to bring Power of Siberia 2 a step closer to becoming reality
  • Trump accuses Xi Jinping of conspiring against the US with Valdimir Putin and Kim Jong Un on Truth Social
  • India in talks with US for trade agreement, says Indian trade minister
  • Forgetful Maryland man bought two identical tickets for the same Powerball Double Play drawing and scored two $500,000 prizes, for a total of $1 million

 

 

 

Global stocks staged a modest rebound after days of losses, while a bruising bond rout showed signs of easing. Long-dated government borrowing costs from Japan to
Britain touched fresh multi-year highs on lingering concerns over the fiscal health of some of the world’s biggest economies, although a degree of calm was returning. India’s services sector growth accelerated to a 15-year high in August on robust demand,
which also pushed prices higher at the fastest rate in over a decade, a business survey showed. The euro zone economy grew slowly in August, with weaker services sector growth counterbalanced by stronger manufacturing output, even as overall new orders increased
for the first time since May last year. Spain remained the best performer, followed by Italy, which saw a slight acceleration. Germany’s expansion slowed, while France remained in contractionary territory, although its PMI rose to a 12-month high of 49.8.
China sent a broad message of deterrence with its largest ever military parade, showcasing a nuclear-armed missile with near-global reach, to air defense lasers and hypersonic weapons.

 

EQUITIES:   

US Equity futures are higher as MAG 7 and other tech stocks rebound before the bell. Apple and Alphabet both jump after receiving favorable court rulings. Deputy CIO at Federated Hermes,
Steve Chiavarone, believes the US stocks selloff is likely to be short and shallow as corporate earnings and the economic outlook remain robust. Bloomberg Economics expects JOLTS job numbers to show more labor-market cooling.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.7%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI +0.03%

In pre-market trading, Alphabet (GOOGL) climbs 5.4% after dodging forced Chrome sale in court ruling. Apple (AAPL) up 3.9% after US judge stopped short of barring its
lucrative search arrangement with Google. Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) falls 4% after the retailer’s 2Q report underwhelmed Wall Street. Macy’s Inc. (M) climbs 13% after raising its annual outlook and reporting its best comparable sales growth in 12 quarters, the
latest signs that consumers are still spending despite concerns about inflation and tariffs. Kraft Heinz (KHC) rises 1.2% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to equal-weight from underweight saying the stock’s valuation looks reasonable and the planned separation will
limit downside. Zscaler (ZS) is up 2.3% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that is seen as strong.

Shares in Europe rebound after a sharp selloff early in the session. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8% as investors welcomed a calmer day in the European government bond market
after Gilts and German long-end yields dipped after an earlier spike. Upward revisions to the UK’s August PMI reading shows services at their strongest level since April 2024. UK August services come in at PMI 54.2 vs. Prelim 53.6. Education publisher Pearson
is the worst performer in the FTSE 100, down more than 3% and close to a one-year low after expectations of softer growth in the third quarter. European mining stocks are lifting the region as gold hits a fresh record high during the session. Adidas shares
rise as much as 3.8% on an upgrade to buy from hold at Jefferies. AMG Critical Materials also jumped as much as 8.7% to their highest intraday level in almost two years, behind a price target increase by Citi. ASML shares up over 2% despite elevated supply
chain risks as US revokes its chip gear waiver on Samsung Electronics. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +0.9%, CAC +1.0%, FTSE 100 +0.6%, FTSE Metals & Mining Index +2.1%

Stock indexes in Asia see a second straight day of decline, weighed by those in Japan due to domestic political uncertainty and weakness in regional chip-making stocks.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1%, with the Nikkei being the biggest drag. Japanese bank stocks fell on expectations that domestic political uncertainty will delay the Bank of Japan’s next interest rate hike. Australian equities also dropped after
growth data reinforced the case for the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. Asian chip stocks were under pressure after the US revoked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s authorization to freely ship essential gear to its main Chinese chipmaking
base. TSMC fell as much as 1.3% before erasing the loss. Thai stocks rose after the country’s largest political party said it will back conservative politician Anutin Charnvirakul’s bid to form a government. CSI 300 -0.7%, Hang Seng Index -0.6%, ASX 200 -1.8%,
Sensex +0.5%, Taiwan +0.3%, Philippines -0.7%. Thailand +0.8%, Singapore -0.2%, Topix +1.0%, Indonesia +1.0%, Kospi +0.4%.

 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve while European bonds stabilize following yesterday’s global government bond selloff. Global borrowers sold over
$90 billion in investment-grade debt Tuesday, with Europe setting a daily issuance record at €49.6 billion. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper on the day with 5s30s flatter by around 1bp as long-end marginally outperforms. 10-year is near 4.285% with bunds and
gilts in the sector outperforming by around 3.5bp.

 

METALS: 

Gold is holding in the green after hitting an all-time high of $3,546.99 earlier in the session. Gold’s latest record came as growing expectations for US interest-rate
cuts bolstered the metal’s appeal. The drop in bonds and equities has also strengthened its status as a haven. All focus is now on Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data for cues on the size of the Fed’s potential cut. Swaps currently imply around a 90% chance
of a quarter-point Fed rate cut later this month, with three more similar moves expected by June. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver ~flat, Copper futures -0.2%.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices fell ahead of a weekend meeting of OPEC+ producers that is expected to consider another increase in production targets.  Crude extended losses after Reuters
reported that OPEC+ is considering another supply boost for the month of October, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. A final decision has not been made, according to the report. The group was expected to hold output steady at its online meeting
this weekend.  WTI -2.1%, Brent -1.8%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB -1.8%. 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

The US dollar index erased a 0.3% advance as focus shifted to US data later Wednesday. The euro and pound reversed losses against the dollar as Bund and Gilt yields
steadied. GBP/USD bounces from its four-week low as it rises 0.2%. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK’s annual budget on Nov. 26. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s search for the next chair of the Federal Reserve
kicks off Friday with a blitz of interviews. US$ Index flat, GBPUSD +0.04%, EURUSD flat, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD flat, USDCHF flat, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK flat.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.07%, Ethereum +1.4%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $152
    • Allegion (ALLE) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA; PT $207
    • Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $344
    • Bio-Techne (TECH) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $73
    • BorgWarner (BWA) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $52
    • BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $32.40
    • Chipotle (CMG) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $55
    • Cummins (CMI) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $500
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $40
    • HubSpot (HUBS) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $606
    • Icon (ICLR) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $236
    • Ionis Pharma (IONS) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $70
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $29
    • NetEase (NTES) ADRs Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $150
    • Nokia (NOKIA FH) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $5
    • Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $19
    • TransUnion (TRU) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $115
    • Valero Energy (VLO) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $179
  • Downgrades
    • Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $50
    • Accenture (ACN) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $250
    • Air Lease (AL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $65
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $123
    • Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $23
    • Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $177
    • Six Flags (FUN) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $27
    • TAG Oil (TAO CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Beacon Securities
    • Telus Digital Experience (TIXT CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$6.20
  • Initiations
    • AdvanSix (ASIX) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $28
    • Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $44
    • Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
    • Archrock (AROC) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
    • Avadel (AVDL) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
    • Biohaven (BHVN) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $75
    • BioMarin (BMRN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $85
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Outperform at GuoSen
    • Bullish (BLSH) Rated New Neutral at Compass Point; PT $45
    • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) US Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $37
      • US Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $31
    • Clarivate (CLVT) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Cogent Biosciences Inc (COGT) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • CoStar (CSGP) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $105
    • Gartner (IT) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Infosys (INFO IN) ADRs Rated New Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $12
    • KALA BIO Inc (KALA) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $23
    • Kalaris Therapeutics Inc (KLRS) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • KB Home (KBH) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $80
    • Nuvalent (NUVL) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $105
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $25
    • Scholastic (SCHL) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $37
    • Sionna Therapeutics (SION) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $22
      • Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $80
    • Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $35
    • Unisys (UIS) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $6
    • Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Clarksons; PT $12
    • Verisk (VRSK) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $320
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

Bryan Duong

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